Auction Strategy / Advice

[Sharky]

Would appreciate hearing your recommended auction strategy given my circumstances:

NL 5x5 keeper league
Strong keepers; $155 of $260 remaining
* 4 hitters - three of top 15 rated hitters in Freeman, Harris, CJ Abrams plus Lane Thomas
* 2 top SP in Strider and Webb;
* Solid closer (Phillips)
Lots of top talent available
* Acuna, Ohtani, Betts, Olson, Trea, Tatis, Riley, Albies, etc

Owners are knowledgeable so pricing is always efficient (no real “bargains” except endgame and maybe a $1-2 discount on most expensive guys vs full inflation prices).

So, if it’s mostly efficient, would you:
1) Spend $ where talent is thin (2B, 1B)?
2) Spread the risk, avoid top guys, and accumulate counting stats
3) Buy a top guy like Ohtani, Acuna, Yamamoto because of potential “discount”?
4) Other?

This is a 20-year old league and I have my thoughts / style. But would enjoy hearing other takes. Thanks a lot!

[The Feral Slasher]

Would appreciate hearing your recommended auction strategy given my circumstances:

NL 5x5 keeper league
Strong keepers; $155 of $260 remaining
* 4 hitters - three of top 15 rated hitters in Freeman, Harris, CJ Abrams plus Lane Thomas
* 2 top SP in Strider and Webb;
* Solid closer (Phillips)
Lots of top talent available
* Acuna, Ohtani, Betts, Olson, Trea, Tatis, Riley, Albies, etc

Owners are knowledgeable so pricing is always efficient (no real “bargains” except endgame and maybe a $1-2 discount on most expensive guys vs full inflation prices).

So, if it’s mostly efficient, would you:
1) Spend $ where talent is thin (2B, 1B)?
2) Spread the risk, avoid top guys, and accumulate counting stats
3) Buy a top guy like Ohtani, Acuna, Yamamoto because of potential “discount”?
4) Other?

This is a 20-year old league and I have my thoughts / style. But would enjoy hearing other takes. Thanks a lot!

If the prices are so efficient it probably doesn't really matter who you buy. Just be flexible and try to find bargains where you can and go for guys you think will exceed projections

[Pauly]

OK, me personally: I would budget for 1 closer (~$15), 1 SP (~$5-8) and four $1 middle relievers on the pitching side. With strider and webb and a third SP (middle to low end) plus Phillips and a top closer, you should be able to finish mid-pack in K and totally dominate ratios and saves with this strategy. Target high K, low WHIP middle RPs (guys like Graterol or Hoffman will chip in to make sure you win saves too).

So say you spend $25 on pitchers....then spend $130 on hitting and do your best to hit 4 or 5 of the category targets. You can choose to spread it out or go stars/scrubs, but you will have the money to do either one.

Target some SP in the reserves, but they don't necessarily need to be guys you need right now.

If it works right, you will win 3 categories in pitching easily, finish mid-pack in Ks and sort of punting wins (pray for a mid-low finish). If you dominate hitting by spending well, that should make you a league winner. This has worked for me in my NL only many times.

[Sharky]

OK, me personally: I would budget for 1 closer (~$15), 1 SP (~$5-8) and four $1 middle relievers on the pitching side. With strider and webb and a third SP (middle to low end) plus Phillips and a top closer, you should be able to finish mid-pack in K and totally dominate ratios and saves with this strategy. Target high K, low WHIP middle RPs (guys like Graterol or Hoffman will chip in to make sure you win saves too).

So say you spend $25 on pitchers....then spend $130 on hitting and do your best to hit 4 or 5 of the category targets. You can choose to spread it out or go stars/scrubs, but you will have the money to do either one.

Target some SP in the reserves, but they don't necessarily need to be guys you need right now.

If it works right, you will win 3 categories in pitching easily, finish mid-pack in Ks and sort of punting wins (pray for a mid-low finish). If you dominate hitting by spending well, that should make you a league winner. This has worked for me in my NL only many times.

Thanks Pauly. Interesting idea. We have an IP minimum (and I think it’s still 900). So very difficult to hit the minimum without 5 SP. So maybe the closer becomes an SP buy, as I can probably trade for a second closer (or acquire via FAAB). Also no bench and no reserves.

[Pauly]

Thanks Pauly. Interesting idea. We have an IP minimum (and I think it’s still 900). So very difficult to hit the minimum without 5 SP. So maybe the closer becomes an SP buy, as I can probably trade for a second closer (or acquire via FAAB). Also no bench and no reserves.

Ive never had a problem meeting 900 IP doing this (my leagues also have that threshold). Strider+Webb is 380 innings. Add another SP (150 innings) that's 530. Most RPs go around 70 innings each. You have 6 which would equal 420. That gets you to 950 innings without ever streaming an SP, which you might do. Of course it depends on strider and webb staying healthy, but the whole thing depends on that anyway.

[ThatRogue]

What are the prices on each of your keepers. I’m interested in seeing your hitting/pitching split.

[Ken]

OK, me personally: I would budget for 1 closer (~$15), 1 SP (~$5-8) and four $1 middle relievers on the pitching side. With strider and webb and a third SP (middle to low end) plus Phillips and a top closer, you should be able to finish mid-pack in K and totally dominate ratios and saves with this strategy. Target high K, low WHIP middle RPs (guys like Graterol or Hoffman will chip in to make sure you win saves too).

So say you spend $25 on pitchers....then spend $130 on hitting and do your best to hit 4 or 5 of the category targets. You can choose to spread it out or go stars/scrubs, but you will have the money to do either one.

Target some SP in the reserves, but they don't necessarily need to be guys you need right now.

If it works right, you will win 3 categories in pitching easily, finish mid-pack in Ks and sort of punting wins (pray for a mid-low finish). If you dominate hitting by spending well, that should make you a league winner. This has worked for me in my NL only many times.

This is a plan I want to explore.

I think the first step I'd need to take is map out a set of actual names and total up last years stats or projections or a combination of those to see what pitching actually looks like. Compare totals against my league stats from last year and see where I'm at and how many points I'd need from my hitters.

[Sharky]

What are the prices on each of your keepers. I’m interested in seeing your hitting/pitching split.

Keeper salary
Hitting: $80 (for $107 using LABR NL prices)
Pitching: $33 (for $81 using LABR NL prices)

What does that tell you about split?

[Ken]

Ive never had a problem meeting 900 IP doing this (my leagues also have that threshold). Strider+Webb is 380 innings. Add another SP (150 innings) that's 530. Most RPs go around 70 innings each. You have 6 which would equal 420. That gets you to 950 innings without ever streaming an SP, which you might do. Of course it depends on strider and webb staying healthy, but the whole thing depends on that anyway.

I ran some numbers with specifically Strider/Webb/Phillips and added actual players for the roles specified. For example Bednar for a closer, Garrett for a low end SP, etc.

What I'm finding is that you are right, you win 3 pitching categories pretty easily. However you auto lose Wins and after putting in a few combos I can't get out of last or next to last in Ks. I think getting to mid tier on Ks is ambitious. Just competing against average rotations of mediocre starters you're going to lose in Ks in my opinion.

On the innings front it makes it to 900, but you are 1 injury away from not meeting your league minimum. I would be sweating bullets the last week since this build barely scrapes by.

Lets assume a 10 team league, with 30-35 points from pitching you would then need 40-45 points out of your offense so averaging 2nd or 3rd place in every category. I dont think you can go after 4 of 5 offensive categories in that case you need to target winning them all and then have some buffer to fall back to 2nd or 3rd if you dont hit your projections on every player.

I do understand you can stream, etc but by doing that you're also losing out on some of the benefits of this build, i.e. the streamers will pull down your ratios.

Overall this looks like a strategy that's possible to win with but very risky and in my opinion unlikely to work. I really wish it did work though because it would be fun to run it.

[The Feral Slasher]

I ran some numbers with specifically Strider/Webb/Phillips and added actual players for the roles specified. For example Bednar for a closer, Garrett for a low end SP, etc.

What I'm finding is that you are right, you win 3 pitching categories pretty easily. However you auto lose Wins and after putting in a few combos I can't get out of last or next to last in Ks. I think getting to mid tier on Ks is ambitious. Just competing against average rotations of mediocre starters you're going to lose in Ks in my opinion.

On the innings front it makes it to 900, but you are 1 injury away from not meeting your league minimum. I would be sweating bullets the last week since this build barely scrapes by.

Lets assume a 10 team league, with 30-35 points from pitching you would then need 40-45 points out of your offense so averaging 2nd or 3rd place in every category. I dont think you can go after 4 of 5 offensive categories in that case you need to target winning them all and then have some buffer to fall back to 2nd or 3rd if you dont hit your projections on every player.

I do understand you can stream, etc but by doing that you're also losing out on some of the benefits of this build, i.e. the streamers will pull down your ratios.

Overall this looks like a strategy that's possible to win with but very risky and in my opinion unlikely to work. I really wish it did work though because it would be fun to run it.

It does seem like a lot of risk to take this approach with such a strong keeper list. Seems possible to compete in all 10 categories.

I would look at historical league standings and see if punting 1.5 categories is likely to give enough points to win the league before going this route

[Pauly]

I ran some numbers with specifically Strider/Webb/Phillips and added actual players for the roles specified. For example Bednar for a closer, Garrett for a low end SP, etc.

What I'm finding is that you are right, you win 3 pitching categories pretty easily. However you auto lose Wins and after putting in a few combos I can't get out of last or next to last in Ks. I think getting to mid tier on Ks is ambitious. Just competing against average rotations of mediocre starters you're going to lose in Ks in my opinion.

On the innings front it makes it to 900, but you are 1 injury away from not meeting your league minimum. I would be sweating bullets the last week since this build barely scrapes by.

Lets assume a 10 team league, with 30-35 points from pitching you would then need 40-45 points out of your offense so averaging 2nd or 3rd place in every category. I dont think you can go after 4 of 5 offensive categories in that case you need to target winning them all and then have some buffer to fall back to 2nd or 3rd if you dont hit your projections on every player.

I do understand you can stream, etc but by doing that you're also losing out on some of the benefits of this build, i.e. the streamers will pull down your ratios.

Overall this looks like a strategy that's possible to win with but very risky and in my opinion unlikely to work. I really wish it did work though because it would be fun to run it.

Ive made it work fairly consistently - if not for the win then def for the podium in an NL. But really you need to be top 3 in everything on offense, not 4 of 5 - I think I misspoke on that one.

Appreciate you running the numbers!

[Ken]

Ive made it work fairly consistently - if not for the win then def for the podium in an NL. But really you need to be top 3 in everything on offense, not 4 of 5 - I think I misspoke on that one.

Appreciate you running the numbers!

Agree you need top 3 across all offense to come close.

If you can find it post your most recent pitching staff that followed this strategy, I'm most interested in how you weren't last in Ks.

[madducks]

I'm pretty sure if Mith was here he would say it's all luck.

[Teenwolf]

I think if you want to have 3 strong SP for the whole year, you need to enter the season with at least 4-5. Attrition rate for SPs is skyrocketing, so it seems more risky than ever to count on 3 SPs being both healthy and good for the entire season. You need to plan for injury or the whole thing falls apart, IMO.

I've been spending like crazy on pitching in my competitive leagues. $140 pitching/$125 hitting in 18 tm mixed and $125 pitching/$140 hitting in 12 tm AL. It's harder to gain pts from behind in pitching (2 ratio categories) than it is to catch up in hitting (1 ratio category).

My final calculation in buying lots of pitching is that last year, early season hitting was cold, and bats got hot with the weather, 6 weeks into the season. So if I'm loaded up on pitching early, when the weather is hampering offense, it could theoretically provide a bigger ratio buffer, presuming I bought productive pitchers, anyway.

AL pitchers ($125, HD+SV, hence the lack of RP spending)

Keepers (Kirby 5, Olson 6, Means 2, Munoz 1)

Buys (Bieber 25, Varland 18, Cortes 16, Scherzer 15, Lugo 14, Schmidt 9, Mize 7, Manoah 5)

18 tm mixed pitchers

Keepers (Gallen 10, S. Gray 11)

Buys (Gausman 33, Romano 16, Puk 13, Scherzer 9, Harvey 9, Mize 8, DeGrom 8, Gil 6, Hoffman 6, Varland 5, Olson 3, Means 3)

Doubled up on Mize, Means, Scherzer, Varland and Olson.

Any thoughts on this theory?

[ThatRogue]

Would appreciate hearing your recommended auction strategy given my circumstances:

NL 5x5 keeper league
Strong keepers; $155 of $260 remaining
* 4 hitters - three of top 15 rated hitters in Freeman, Harris, CJ Abrams plus Lane Thomas
* 2 top SP in Strider and Webb;
* Solid closer (Phillips)
Lots of top talent available
* Acuna, Ohtani, Betts, Olson, Trea, Tatis, Riley, Albies, etc

Owners are knowledgeable so pricing is always efficient (no real “bargains” except endgame and maybe a $1-2 discount on most expensive guys vs full inflation prices).

So, if it’s mostly efficient, would you:
1) Spend $ where talent is thin (2B, 1B)?
2) Spread the risk, avoid top guys, and accumulate counting stats
3) Buy a top guy like Ohtani, Acuna, Yamamoto because of potential “discount”?
4) Other?

This is a 20-year old league and I have my thoughts / style. But would enjoy hearing other takes. Thanks a lot!

Keeper salary
Hitting: $80 (for $107 using LABR NL prices)
Pitching: $33 (for $81 using LABR NL prices)

What does that tell you about split?

Looking at your positions:

1B: Freeman
SS: Abrams
OF: Harris, Jr
OF: Thomas
Total Hitting: $80

SP: Strider
SP: Webb
CL: Phillips
Total Pitching: $33

Remaining budget: $155

(Unless I'm missing something, isn't your remaining budget $147?)

Assuming $147 remaining and a traditional 68% hitting, 32% pitching allocation, you'd have approximately $100 to spend on hitting and $47 to spend on pitching. I'd probably allocate it something like this:

Hitting: Considering the players you listed as available, I like the idea of going after a strong 2B, 3B & MI. In my league, there were a reasonable number of relatively cheap OF available that will produce more than the cheap MI that were available:

2B: $30
MI: $20
3B: $30
CI: $1
OF3: $10
OF4: $5
OF5: $1
CA: $1 (I got R.Adams for a buck and Haase in reserves, to go with my $3 keeper G.Sanchez)
CA: $1
UT: $1

Obviously, you should be flexible if you see value, but I think this is the base plan I'd go in with, if I had your roster.


Pitching: I think a stars and scrubs approach could work well with the pitchers you have, already:

SP3: $18 - adding another solid SP would give you a nice "big-three" and a stable base for WHIP, ERA and Ks.
CL2: $17 - having two closers to lock up a top three finish in saves would be valuable
SP4: $6 - someone undervalued with upside (Severino? Hicks?)
SP5: $3
SP6: $1 - I would gamble on a SP returning from injury (Buehler, May, Ray, etc.) and pick up a couple of SP via reserves to hold you until these guys are ready. There were several "decent" ones available in my 12 team league and we draft 13 hitters, 10 pitchers and 2 super UT players that are hitters or pitchers.
MR: $1
MR: $1

Good luck!