Am I Missing Something on Gausman?

[Sour Masher]

Had my auction today--it went really well except I saved some money late for a guy and the only team with $1 more nabbed him, leaving me with money on the table, which I hate. I landed Jose Ramirez and Marcus Semien at good values, but the thing that threw me early was I was bidding up Gausman just to move things along and I froze the room at a price that seems too good to be true. My league has a $400 budget, so the pricing won't translate, but he went way cheaper than Castillo, Valdez, and Nola, and just a little more than Fried. It seems my league really discounted for any kind of sp injury this year, but my read on Gausman is he should be fine. Did I not properly discount him? Even with the shoulder fatigue, I had him right behind Castillo as the 2nd best arm available in the auction, but Valdez and Nola both went for a good bit more and while Fried went for a little less and Musgrove and Sonny Gray went for a lot less, they all went for what I thought were good values too, with the extra bucks going to bid up sleepers like Puk.

I'm thinking all four of these guys got injury discounts, but my thoughts of Gausman before I landed him were that his injury risk was minimal. After, I began looking to see if recent trends line up with Gausman being moved behind Valdez and Nola and I did fine one guy down on him--our old forummate Paul Sporer has Guasman ranked 23, behind Valdez and Nola and just ahead of Fried and Gray, who also went for well below my projection. My league bidding basically lined right up with Paul's rankings. I feel good about getting Gausman, but my leageumates weren't impressed and it has me doubting myself. What does everyone else think about Gausman?

Besides feedback on Gausman, I wanted to post this as a heads up to others--don't bid up arms with any type of injury risky or you might land them! I was still well short of my projected value on Gausman but when I jumped up his bid $5, I got crickets. An example of price enforcing gone right, I hope.

[virgonomic]

You neglected to post a single price in your post. Was this on purpose?

[Teenwolf]

Interesting, we just held the RJ Experts League auction, and I found the same thing!

I was shocked at how low Gausman went ($33), and he went to me. Nola and Fried both went $35. I kept Sonny Gray $11 over Varsho $2, and kicked myself when Varsho went $24. Oh well.

My other buys were weird. Offense went total spread the wealth, 6 guys between $10-$14. France 10, Marsh 10, Wallner 11, O'Neill 12, Chapman 13, Gurriel 14. Some solid floor guys and a few upside plays.

Pitching I tried to invest a bit more in closing speculation than usual, and generally spending up on pitching, as I went in with some strong profit margin on the hitting side.

Gausman 33, Romano 16, Puk 13, Harvey 9, Scherzer 9, DeGrom 8, Mize 8, Gil 6, Hoffman 6, Varland 5, Olson 3, Means 3 (added to my Gallen 10 and S. Gray 11 keepers).

[Sour Masher]

You neglected to post a single price in your post. Was this on purpose?

Yes, none of the prices would mean much to anyone here. But here goes--Castillo 99 (a bidding war for the best SP that went crazy...very rare in my league, but a perfect storm of the two biggest money guys needing an arm and deciding they wanted the best/safest guy), Valdez--68, Nola 67, Gausman 50, Fried 45, Musgrove 27, Gray 26.

[Sour Masher]

Interesting, we just held the RJ Experts League auction, and I found the same thing!

I was shocked at how low Gausman went ($33), and he went to me. Nola and Fried both went $35. I kept Sonny Gray $11 over Varsho $2, and kicked myself when Varsho went $24. Oh well.

My other buys were weird. Offense went total spread the wealth, 6 guys between $10-$14. France 10, Marsh 10, Wallner 11, O'Neill 12, Chapman 13, Gurriel 14. Some solid floor guys and a few upside plays.

Pitching I tried to invest a bit more in closing speculation than usual, and generally spending up on pitching, as I went in with some strong profit margin on the hitting side.

Gausman 33, Romano 16, Puk 13, Harvey 9, Scherzer 9, DeGrom 8, Mize 8, Gil 6, Hoffman 6, Varland 5, Olson 3, Means 3 (added to my Gallen 10 and S. Gray 11 keepers).

Wow, Guasman went for less than Nola and Fried in your league too! Really interesting. It may be that I simply haven't discounted Gausman enough from his injury. My reading of it is that it is just minor fatigue, but I know shoulder stuff is really scary so I guess I get it. I just wasn't expecting him to stall out where he did. I am hoping he is fine, for both of us!

You gambled on some hurt guys, which was my plan, before I landed Guasman. In fact, the guy I saved for at the end was Robbie Ray, but he got sniped from me. I hope your guys pan out. I love DeGrom at 8 long term for you.

[revo]

Any pitcher injury around this time will discount the price, and this is no exception. It’s hard to spend $30+ just to hear the guy will miss 1-2 months within the week. If that call doesn’t come, good for you.

[Sharky]

In our AL 5x5 keeper auction, Burnes sold for $38, Framber for $32, and Gausman for $29. I would happily take Gausman given price difference (but sadly didn’t).