2024 Mixed League HDID

[BuckyBuckner]

I had my first auction draft of the year. It's a 15 team 5x5 standard categories except OPS instead of AVG. 50 players per team, 25 active with a 25 player bench. Daily transactions, no IL spots. For the draft, we have an auction for 30 players with a budget of $280 and then a snake draft for the remaining 20 players with the round determining the salary. There are no contracts for players, major leaguers salaries increase by $3 and rookie eligible players don't have their salaries increased. The asterisk denotes the keepers. Yes, I kept Acuna at $59 and 12 pitchers. Here's what I got:

C	Moreno,Gabriel*	4
C	Rogers,Jake	6
1B	Casas,Triston*	7
CI	Santana,Carlos	1
3B	Hayes,Ke'Bryan	14
2B	Lowe,Brandon	10
MI	McNeil,Jeff	2
SS	Henderson,Gunnar*	8
OF	Acuna,Ronald*	59
OF	Harris,Michael*	11
OF	Chisholm,Jazz*	14
OF	Kepler,Max	13
OF	Bouchard,Sean	3
DH	Encarnacion-Strand,Christian*	8
UT	Cronenworth,Jake	7
P	Strider,Spencer*	8
P	Castillo,Luis*	15
P	Glasnow,Tyler*	14
P	Kirby,George*	8
P	Rodon,Carlos*	10
P	Peralta,Freddy*	15
P	Eflin,Zach*	7
P	Ragans,Cole*	5
P	Fairbanks,Peter*	8
P	Diaz,Alexis*	8
RES	Pepiot,Ryan*	4
RES	Perez,Eury*	4
RES	Renfroe,Hunter	1
RES	Jenkins,Walker	1
RES	Jobe,Jackson	4
FRM	Wisdom,Patrick	10
FRM	Lawrence,Justin	9
FRM	Dominguez,Seranthony	8
FRM	Malloy,Justyn-Henry	7
FRM	Merryweather,Julian	6
FRM	Bailey,Patrick	5
FRM	Fernandez,Yanquiel	5
FRM	Gallegos,Giovanny	5
FRM	DeLauter,Chase*	5
FRM	Amador,Adael*	5
FRM	Collier,Cam*	5
FRM	Meyer,Max*	4
FRM	Arias,Roderick*	2
FRM	Winn,Masyn*	2
FRM	Gonsolin,Tony	1
FRM	Hampton,Chase	1
FRM	Rincones,Gabriel	1
FRM	Canario,Alexander	1
FRM	Shenton,Austin	1
FRM	McMillon,John	1

image.png

A few weak spots like Santana and McNeil but Winn can take McNeil's spot, Croninworth can go into Santana's spot and I can figure out the UT spot. I think the top end players will carry those weak spots anyway. Only two closers but I think the other relievers will get me enough vulture saves to keep him competitive and a trade for a closer at some point shouldn't be too difficult if needed. What do y'all think?

[the heat]

That's one heck of a pitching staff you got there.

[The Feral Slasher]

That's one heck of a pitching staff you got there.

Damn, it is impressive

[BuckyBuckner]

Thanks guys. It was fun not having to worry about pitching at the draft and just spend it all (not that I had a lot with $59 already spent on Acuna) on hitting.

[Ken]

Thanks guys. It was fun not having to worry about pitching at the draft and just spend it all (not that I had a lot with $59 already spent on Acuna) on hitting.

To be honest I don't really like your auction much at all, but the keepers mean that you didn't really need to show up for the auction.

[BuckyBuckner]

To be honest I don't really like your auction much at all, but the keepers mean that you didn't really need to show up for the auction.

What would you suggest I should have done differently?

[Ken]

What would you suggest I should have done differently?

That's a difficult question without knowing who was available but your auction results were:

Jake Rogers
Carlos Santana
Brandon Lowe
Jeff McNeil
Max Kepler
Jake Cronenworth
Sean Bouchard

I don't think I'd want more than 1 or 2 from that list starting on my team, some of them are below replacement in a 15 team league. That list would be a good bench. But starting?

Based on your keepers it sounds like it's possible that you have to dip below replacment because your league allows keeping mlb players on reserve which is weird (i.e. in typical keeper leagues you can't keep Pepiot on your bench). If every team is doing that, and many of them on the mlb hitter side I guess it's possible your auction actually had very few usable players.

For example, Cronenworth is basically a $1 player according to the market but you paid $7. Do you just like Cronenworth a lot more than the market likes him or was there no one else for that spot available in your league? Typically you'd expect there to be a large set of similar players so you'd pass on paying $7 if the auction goes there and you just wait and get the same type guy for $1.

[BuckyBuckner]

That's a difficult question without knowing who was available but your auction results were:

Jake Rogers
Carlos Santana
Brandon Lowe
Jeff McNeil
Max Kepler
Jake Cronenworth
Sean Bouchard

I don't think I'd want more than 1 or 2 from that list starting on my team, some of them are below replacement in a 15 team league. That list would be a good bench. But starting?

Based on your keepers it sounds like it's possible that you have to dip below replacment because your league allows keeping mlb players on reserve which is weird (i.e. in typical keeper leagues you can't keep Pepiot on your bench). If every team is doing that, and many of them on the mlb hitter side I guess it's possible your auction actually had very few usable players.

For example, Cronenworth is basically a $1 player according to the market but you paid $7. Do you just like Cronenworth a lot more than the market likes him or was there no one else for that spot available in your league? Typically you'd expect there to be a large set of similar players so you'd pass on paying $7 if the auction goes there and you just wait and get the same type guy for $1.

For our rules, you can keep 25 players, they can be in the majors or minors. In the auction we draft 30 players and then there is a 20 player draft. So in this case, you can keep major leaguers on the 5 player bench since we auction more than just the starting lineup.

Looking at RotoLab, for our league, Cronenworth is a $6 player, different market than yours I guess. But I guess I spent $1 too much. Carlos Santana is valued at $8, so according to the software, I got a bargain. Bouchard is valued at $13, spent $3. I don't love the Kepler pick and perhaps I should have been more aggressive on other outfielders but most players went over their value, probably due to the inflation at the time.

I had $62 for 11 spots going into the draft. An average of $5.6 per player. I couldn't get an expensive player.

[Gregg]

I had $62 for 11 spots going into the draft. An average of $5.6 per player. I couldn't get an expensive player.

First let me say I love your team. Your keepers are insane, pitching even more so.

When I read Ken's comment and took off the stars that blinded me on your overall team, I agreed with Ken. I don't love your auction.

If there were a lot of one dollar players in the end game you could have spent 52 on a stud and 10 one dollar. Or two 26 a 2 and 8 one dollar players. Well you get the idea.

Hard for me to be too critical to the man who put that keeper list together. Just talking baseball what ifs.

Good luck in the season I hope you post up some mile markers on how your are doing during the season.

[BuckyBuckner]

I just don't think $52 and 10 $1 players would have been a good idea. Personally, I would have hated doing that, just sitting there waiting until the end.

Here's what the draft looked like (part 1). I should note that the Value field is updated to the current value as of today. This draft was done Feb 24:

Player	Value	Salary	Inf%
Soto,Juan	$45	$55	53.8
Yamamoto,Yoshinobu	$17	$37	55.2
Ramirez,Jose	$32	$39	54.1
Nola,Aaron	$26	$32	55.1
Realmuto,J.T.	$18	$19	55.0
Diaz,Edwin	$21	$23	55.7
Castellanos,Nick	$12	$18	56.6
Contreras,Willson	$12	$10	56.8
Adam,Jason	$1	$5	57.1
Megill,Tylor	$0	$3	56.8
Trout,Mike	$27	$40	56.4
Edman,Tommy	$6	$14	56.7
Turner,Trea	$28	$38	56.1
Lindor,Francisco	$30	$37	56.8
Pivetta,Nick	$15	$16	58.1
Darvish,Yu	$12	$17	59.5
Machado,Manny	$28	$34	59.7
Cruz,Oneil	$11	$27	59.6
Devers,Rafael	$27	$35	58.3
Springer,George	$16	$23	59.5
Hader,Josh	$11	$24	59.8
Perez,Salvador	$8	$15	58.7
Montero,Elehuris	$0	$8	58.0
Whitlock,Garrett	$7	$5	56.8
Gallo,Joey	$5	$6	57.6
Bichette,Bo	$18	$31	58.2
Helsley,Ryan	$8	$19	57.8
Foley,Jason	-$1	$3	56.7
Arenado,Nolan	$17	$23	56.2
Sale,Chris	$13	$21	56.9
Javier,Cristian	$11	$20	56.8
Stanton,Giancarlo	$5	$16	56.2
Jansen,Kenley	$7	$12	54.7
Bogaerts,Xander	$12	$19	54.4
Bregman,Alex	$18	$27	54.9
Stephenson,Tyler	$4	$6	55.0
Abreu,Jose	$10	$8	54.5
Hayes,Ke'Bryan	$9	$14	55.6
Miller,Mason	$0	$7	55.6
Varsho,Daulton	$11	$13	54.3
Hoskins,Rhys	$15	$16	55.1
Happ,Ian	$15	$18	55.7
Stephenson,Robert	$2	$11	57.0
Polanco,Jorge	$6	$7	56.6
Imanaga,Shota	$9	$15	57.0
Cortes,Nestor	$7	$12	56.8
Gore,Mackenzie	$6	$8	56.6
Suzuki,Seiya	$19	$22	56.6
Lowe,Brandon	$9	$10	58.5
Buxton,Byron	$11	$11	59.6
India,Jonathan	$5	$8	60.4
McCormick,Chas	$14	$19	62.5
Westburg,Jordan	$1	$7	63.8
Graterol,Brusdar	$1	$7	62.6
Bell,Josh	$7	$5	61.1
Kwan,Steven	$7	$11	62.9
Giolito,Lucas	-$3	$8	63.0
Wong,Connor	$1	$3	62.3
Muncy,Max	$20	$18	61.7
Ashby,Aaron	$2	$2	64.4
Stroman,Marcus	$6	$11	65.0
Marte,Starling	$9	$12	64.9
Skenes,Paul	$0	$15	66.0
Rogers,Jake	$2	$6	61.6
Jimenez,Eloy	$8	$12	61.6
Chapman,Aroldis	$2	$4	62.0
Kepler,Max	$7	$13	62.1
France,Ty	$3	$3	64.2
Fedde,Erick	$8	$9	64.8
Nootbaar,Lars	$7	$12	66.1
Bryant,Kris	$4	$6	66.1
Hays,Austin	$3	$5	67.0
Treinen,Blake	-$2	$1	68.3
Ward,Taylor	$14	$12	67.9
Bradish,Kyle	$2	$9	72.6
Canning,Griffin	$5	$6	71.2
Yastrzemski,Mike	$4	$3	71.5
Anthony,Roman	-$3	$7	73.0
Martinez,J.D.	$15	$11	70.1
Melendez,M.J.	$2	$6	76.8
Estevez,Carlos	$2	$5	76.1
Davis,Henry	$3	$7	74.3
Correa,Carlos	$9	$9	72.1
Wicks,Jordan	$1	$4	74.3
Walls,Taylor	-$2	$1	73.2
Duran,Ezequiel	$0	$5	72.7
McKenzie,Triston	$3	$8	70.5
Lynch,Daniel	-$2	$1	69.3
McGuire,Reese	-$1	$1	68.8
Brash,Matt	$2	$5	68.3
Bader,Harrison	$4	$6	68.6
Rizzo,Anthony	$7	$7	69.4
Hicks,Jordan	$1	$5	72.3
Lee,Jung-hoo	$5	$7	70.1
Benintendi,Andrew	$2	$4	70.3
Castro,Willi	$1	$5	70.3
Schneider,Davis	$3	$2	70.1
Mountcastle,Ryan	$8	$10	76.0
Langford,Wyatt	$13	$15	76.8
Sanchez,Gary	$2	$2	69.9
Kirk,Alejandro	$1	$3	70.6
Walker,Taijuan	$2	$5	69.5
Houck,Tanner	$1	$3	68.3

[BuckyBuckner]

(Part 1):

Player	Value	Salary	Inf%
Martin,Chris	$1	$2	67.5
Arcia,Orlando	$9	$5	67.0
Sears,J.P.	$4	$3	73.1
LeMahieu,D.J.	$3	$3	76.2
Scherzer,Max	$2	$6	77.5
Gray,Jon	$3	$4	75.2
Bradley,Taj	$0	$10	76.4
Cobb,Alex	$1	$2	69.7
Allen,Logan T.	$5	$5	68.7
Rosario,Amed	$0	$3	71.2
Rogers,Trevor	$3	$5	69.4
Herrera,Ivan	$0	$1	69.3
Peguero,Liover	$2	$4	68.5
Morton,Charlie	$6	$5	68.8
Liberatore,Matthew	-$2	$2	72.4
Leiter,Mark	-$1	$1	70.8
Bleday,J.J.	$1	$2	70.0
Brebbia,John	$1	$2	67.3
McNeil,Jeff	$3	$2	67.7
Canha,Mark	$7	$3	71.0
Rojas,Johan	$3	$4	79.5
Taveras,Leody	$3	$5	83.3
Chapman,Matt	$7	$3	85.0
Abreu,Bryan	$1	$3	96.5
Matsui,Yuki	$1	$5	94.6
Silseth,Chase	$2	$3	92.3
Haniger,Mitch	$6	$2	93.1
Vientos,Mark	$0	$3	98.9
DeGrom,Jacob	$0	$1	96.1
Verdugo,Alex	$1	$3	95.7
Anderson,Tim	$2	$3	95.5
Santana,Carlos	$8	$1	99.8
Ray,Robbie	-$1	$1	119.4
Flores,Wilmer	$1	$2	118.9
Crews,Dylan	-$2	$14	134.5
Turang,Brice	$1	$6	114.6
Cronenworth,Jake	$6	$7	107.5
Rendon,Anthony	$2	$2	115.7
Harvey,Hunter	$1	$4	120.9
Sheehan,Emmet	$1	$7	118.4
McCarthy,Jake	-$1	$1	110.8
Pederson,Joc	$3	$1	109.1
Brennan,Will	-$1	$2	119.1
Ashcraft,Graham	$1	$2	115.6
Cano,Yennier	$0	$2	114.4
Bouchard,Sean	$13	$3	112.8
D Arnaud,Travis	$1	$1	131.1
Sanchez,Jesus	$3	$6	131.5
Noda,Ryan	$3	$4	135.6
Massey,Michael	$1	$3	142.9
Paddack,Chris	$3	$4	147.7
Neris,Hector	$1	$1	157.1
Marsh,Brandon	$1	$2	162.7
Abbott,Andrew	$0	$3	168.9
France,J.P.	$1	$1	160.5
Stripling,Ross	$0	$1	161.5
Taillon,Jameson	$2	$2	160.4
Springs,Jeffrey	$2	$1	183.7
Renfroe,Hunter	$4	$1	203.7
Means,John	$0	$5	250.2
Scott,Christian	-$4	$1	231.0
Rogers,Taylor	$0	$1	227.0
Lodolo,Nick	$1	$5	229.7
Wacha,Michael	$1	$2	222.6
Taylor,Chris	$1	$2	226.0
Uribe,Abner	$1	$1	399.7
Conforto,Michael	$3	$2	392.7
McCullers,Lance	$0	$1	482.9
Wade,LaMonte	$2	$2	473.9
Jenkins,Walker	-$3	$1	613.8
Garcia,Luis V.	$4	$1	602.3
Sandoval,Patrick	$1	$1	1103.6
Lynn,Lance	$3	$1	1298.8
Maeda,Kenta	$6	$1	2000.5
Wiemer,Joey	-$1	$1	0.0
Soderstrom,Tyler	-$2	$1	0.0
Misiorowski,Jacob	-$4	$1	0.0
Miley,Wade	$1	$1	0.0
Baker,Luken	-$2	$1	0.0
Jobe,Jackson	-$3	$4	0.0
Laureano,Ramon	$0	$1	0.0
Clark,Max	-$3	$1	0.0
Wells,Tyler	$0	$1	0.0
Gilbert,Drew	-$3	$1	0.0
Horton,Cade	-$3	$1	0.0
Teel,Kyle	-$3	$2	0.0
Salas,Ethan	-$3	$3	0.0
Berroa,Prelander	$0	$1	0.0
Hernaiz,Darell	-$1	$2	0.0
Williams,Carson	-$3	$1	0.0
Shaw,Matt	$0	$1	0.0
Isaac,Xavier	-$3	$1	0.0
Tellez,Rowdy	$2	$1	0.0
Young,Cole	-$3	$1	0.0
Franco,Wander	-$3	$1	0.0
McClanahan,Shane	-$4	$1	0.0
Vogelbach,Daniel	-$1	$1	0.0
Mikolas,Miles	$2	$1	0.0
Kerkering,Orion	$0	$1	0.0
McCutchen,Andrew	$5	$1	0.0
Basallo,Samuel	-$3	$1	0.0
Moniak,Mickey	$2	$1	0.0
Duvall,Adam	$1	$1	0.0
Robertson,David	$1	$1	0.0

[Ken]

For our rules, you can keep 25 players, they can be in the majors or minors. In the auction we draft 30 players and then there is a 20 player draft. So in this case, you can keep major leaguers on the 5 player bench since we auction more than just the starting lineup.

Looking at RotoLab, for our league, Cronenworth is a $6 player, different market than yours I guess. But I guess I spent $1 too much. Carlos Santana is valued at $8, so according to the software, I got a bargain. Bouchard is valued at $13, spent $3. I don't love the Kepler pick and perhaps I should have been more aggressive on other outfielders but most players went over their value, probably due to the inflation at the time.

I had $62 for 11 spots going into the draft. An average of $5.6 per player. I couldn't get an expensive player.

Got it - the 25 keepers makes sense as to why your auction is very different than what we are used to seeing.

And like Gregg said, since you are the one who put together this ridiculously good keeper list, far be it for me to criticize, you've obviously done a lot right just to get to this spot.

But, lets take Cronenworth and Bouchard for example. Just for a very generalized view of the market I look at NFBC results which is also 15 team 5x5. Obviously need to adjust for OPS but neither of these guys is a huge masher so it shouldn't be terribly far off. In that format, where 345 players "start", Cronenworth goes around 340th and Bouchard 450th. That's replacement level or below.

OK so maybe that's not a good representation, lets run them through the auction calculator with your league setup.

By steamer, Cronenworth is at -$1.4 according to the auction calculator, Bouchard -$12.6. By Zips, Cronenworth -$3, Bouchard -$14.8. By ATC Cronenworth -$2.2, Bouchard -$11.5.

So it seems like you are betting extremely heavily on the specific projection you are using (the default rotolab projections?). I guess I'm just risk averse but I'd be very concerned when there are lots of projections systems pointing in one direction, and one pointing very differently. And you seem to be buying 100% into the outlier. I can understanding including the outlier as a possible outcome but it seems like you need it to be exactly correct and the others to be very wrong.

On Bouchard, I have a hard time understanding how he can get to $13. What numbers is RotoLab putting out to get him there? Yes this is a guy who hit .316/.372/.684, but that was just 43 AB and it was held up by a .381 BABIP. If he hits closer to his AAA numbers, which was a larger sample, .222/.408/.315 he won't last long at the mlb level. I like Bouchard as a sleeper but $13?? It doesn't seem like he's even guaranteed playing time, most projections have him in the 400s for ABs. I wonder how he's getting to a $13 valuation.

Are there other players that RotoLab likes that you would still pay market price on rather than $6 over like you paid on Cronenworth?

[Ken]

Making sure I'm understanding these posts right - Wyatt Langford was available for $15 in a keeper league this late? How?

[Ken]

Provided those prices I'd be pretty excited coming out of the auction with your existing keepers +

Arenado 23
Langford 15
Lee 7
Kirk 3
Chapman 3
Anderson 3
France 3
McNeiil 2

Then pick any 3 top values remaining or prospects - you already did a good job on your bench.

[BuckyBuckner]

RotoLab uses Baseball HQ's projections. Their projections for Croninworth are basically the same as Steamer, ZIPS and ATC. So I'm sure how you are getting such low dollar values for him. My guess is you don't have the correct league parameters. But rest assured, since it's my league, I know what they are and put them into my draft software to get the values needed. BaseballHQ seems to be pretty bullish on Bouchard and that could be a stretch. Odds are he doesn't get the $13 value but there's some upside there if he gets the playing time.

Not sure what you mean by this late for Langford, the draft was in February. But yes, in retrospect, Langford would have been a great buy. Of course there's zero guarantee that one more dollar bid gets Langford.