NL keeper review

[FBP]

10 team NL 5x5 league. 280 cap. Guessing inflation around 30% overall and higher on top rated players. B = 2nd year of 3 year contract F is option year. Can extend $5 per year. My take on keepers, limited to 10. Feel free to criticize or make suggestions
mostly on top rated

Keepers

1B Alonso 15F (Can’t extend previously extended)
OF Suzuki 8B
SS Tovar 8F
OF Alek Thomas 5F or Matos 5B
2B/1B Arraez 18B

CP Helsley 5F
CP Scott 5B
SP Garrett 5B
SP Pfaadt 3B
SP C. Sanchez 3B


Bubbles:


OF Matos 5B (see above - could keep over Thomas if starter)
SS/2B Peguero 5B
3B/1B Montero 6B
2B/OF McNeil 8B
OF Jesus Sanchez
SP Trevor Rogers 7B
CP Kinley 3B (closer competition)
C Stephenson 5B
C Bailey 6B
2B Vargas 5B
OF/DH Martinez 19B (MLB free agent)
OF Carlson 5B (post hype play)

[harmon]

Drop Arraez, Thomas and Matos from keepers.

[the heat]

I'd Keep Stephenson over Thomas/Matos and Arraez. I'd still likely keep Arraez

[harmon]

I'd Keep Stephenson over Thomas/Matos and Arraez. I'd still likely keep Arraez

$18 is steep for a one trick pony and he likely will be closer to his career average of about .315.

[madducks]

Thomas over Matos.

Stephenson instead of Arraez.

[Sharky]

Consensus seems clear. Lots of your extra guys intrigue me but I suspect you can get them back cheaply.

[Ken]

To clarify are you guys reading the original request that this is 10 team NL only and $280 not $260? If you think Arraez isn't worth that, that's a fine opinion to take but it's well below where market is at. The fangraphs calculator puts him at $23 for example. Add in 30% inflation and we are closer to $30.

If you don't want to keep a $30 guy for $18 that's a pretty strong bet against the market.

[harmon]

To clarify are you guys reading the original request that this is 10 team NL only and $280 not $260? If you think Arraez isn't worth that, that's a fine opinion to take but it's well below where market is at. The fangraphs calculator puts him at $23 for example. Add in 30% inflation and we are closer to $30.

If you don't want to keep a $30 guy for $18 that's a pretty strong bet against the market.

I would rather have someone spend $25-$30 on him than keep him at $18.

[Ken]

I would rather have someone spend $25-$30 on him than keep him at $18.

Someone else spending $25-$30 has very, very little impact on your team. I've tried that strategy before, but in a 10 team league there are 8 other teams that are still bidding against you who are unaffected by this purchase.

The analysis is more aligned with what $ value do you actually think Arraez is worth in this league?

I'll just go ahead and say it straight, not keeping Arraez is a big mistake considering the league format and inflation here. It's common to undervalue the impact of avg, but IMO it's a mistake. If he was power only with low avg and speed we wouldn't be having this conversation.

[FBP]

I am certainly keeping Arraez There are lots of high power low average hitters. Having the ability to roster one of them at a competing price without completely tanking the BA category is worthwhile. He also contributes plus value in runs. As I look at my roster it is the last three that are giving me the most pause, hence the post seeking opinions. Thomas, Matos or even Montero are viable candidates. McNeil if healthy is also interesting. I like Stephenson but he is probably drafable at or about his freeze price.

[scottw]

I like your 10 over any of the rest. Arraez certainly worth $18 even with his limitations. If you knocked out C Sanchez [clear 5th starter] for McNeil, I wouldn't be shocked.

[harmon]

Tout Wars NL Only with 12 teams. OBP, no inflation, $260 max.

Arraez goes for $12.

[Ken]

Tout Wars NL Only with 12 teams. OBP, no inflation, $260 max.

Arraez goes for $12.

Not sure what point you are trying to make here since as you noted that data point is vastly different than the one being discussed.

Just as a general guide I'm calcing that Arraez loses ~50% of his value in an OBP format (check your favorite auction calculator to confirm, they should all agree).

So that's closer to a $20 bid in an AVG league. Which again, switch to $280 you're at $21-$22, then add 30% inflation and you are at $28 and you'd be unwise not to keep him at $18.

[harmon]

Not trying to make a point. Just showing what he went for in Tout and the differences in format. He's definitely less valuable in OBP, no doubt.

[harmon]

Not sure what point you are trying to make here since as you noted that data point is vastly different than the one being discussed.

Just as a general guide I'm calcing that Arraez loses ~50% of his value in an OBP format (check your favorite auction calculator to confirm, they should all agree).

So that's closer to a $20 bid in an AVG league. Which again, switch to $280 you're at $21-$22, then add 30% inflation and you are at $28 and you'd be unwise not to keep him at $18.

Question for you - Using the Arraez example, if his keeper price was at the non inflated $21 or $22 instead of $18 would you keep him? What is the highest price point you would keep Arraez at given the league parameters in this case?