Who jumps into the first round in 2024?

[Moonlight J]

Ryan Bloomfield from HQ has done something on Twitter (RIP) each year in March polling followers who will make the jump into first round value by season's end who is currently going after the 12th round in 15-team drafts (so ADP>180) Only one player has done it each season since 2015 and the list is as follows:

• 2015 - Dallas Keuchel
• 2016 - Jonathan Villar
• 2017 - Aaron Judge
• 2018 - Blake Snell
• 2019 - Ketel Marte
• 2020 - Luke Voit
• 2021 - Cedric Mullins
• 2022 - Adolis Garcia
• 2023 - Cody Belliger

Pick a hitter and a pitcher you believe has a non-zero chance of doing that.

my hitter: Tyler O'Neill
my pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez

[madducks]

Hitter: Francisco Alvarez
Pitcher: Mitch Keller

Or if we are including minor leaguers...

Hitter: Wyatt Langford
Pitcher: Paul Skenes

[Sour Masher]

Hitter: Junior Caminero
Pitcher: Alek Manoah

[rhd]

H: Jackson Holliday
P: Paul Skenes (or maybe Shane Baz)

[harmon]

Riley Greene
Bryce Miller

[Teenwolf]

I'm going with the spirit of the exercise, not taking big hype prospects.

Hitter - Johan Rojas OF PHI: I know he needed a .410 BABIP to put up his decent slash line last year. I know he's a slap hitter with 10-15 HR ceiling, more likely under 10... But 80 Speed + 80 Defense in CF gives him a ton of upside. If he ends up leading off at some point, he could be a 50+ SB guy. 90th percentile outcome is a first round talent.

Pitcher - Realistically, the odds of any obscure pitcher ascending to top 15 is similar to guessing the Powerball numbers.

I'll go with a less hyped prospect, Christian Scott SP NYM. He's getting some hype (ranked 98 on Fangraphs), but it's muted because he's a bit older, turning 25 in June. In A+/AA he showed incredible command, with BB rates under 5%, K rates over 30%, and FIP under 2.5 at each stop. I'm a big believer in the value of command, and the raw numbers (85.2 IP, 104 K, 12 BB), are staggering. Slept on.