Saves on awesome teams

[Moonlight J]

Doing a bit of prep for podcast today and was curious to see the high-water mark for saves on a club with at least 100 wins considering we have 2-3 teams that could hit that mark this year.

I found just 17 instances of a closer with at least 25 saves for a 100+ win club since 2013 with Trevor Rosenthal the best at 48 saves for the 2015 Cardinals. Jansen has done it four times on that list & both Atlanta & Baltimore had closers, who missed time, finish with 33 saves last season on their 100+ win clubs.

https://stathead.com/tiny/0Y6FK

[Moonlight J]

Player	SV	Season	Team wins	Save%
Trevor Rosenthal	48	2015	100	48%
Kenley Jansen	41	2022	101	41%
Kenley Jansen	41	2017	104	39%
Craig Kimbrel	42	2018	108	39%
Aroldis Chapman	37	2019	103	36%
Kenley Jansen	38	2021	106	36%
Roberto Osuna	38	2019	107	36%
Ken Giles	34	2017	101	34%
Félix Bautista	33	2023	101	33%
Aroldis Chapman	32	2018	100	32%
Raisel Iglesias	33	2023	104	32%
Edwin Díaz	32	2022	101	32%
Kenley Jansen	33	2019	106	31%
Ryan Pressly	33	2022	106	31%
Taylor Rogers	30	2019	101	30%
Cody Allen	30	2017	102	29%
Jake McGee	31	2021	107	29%
			avg	34%

[madducks]

So.... great closer + great team = only pay for 30 saves and hope for 40+. Or simply put, don't overpay for closers.

[Moonlight J]

...or, if you're looking for a 40+ save guy, look for a team in the postseason picture but not running away from the pack (since 2013). Table below includes 40+ saves on a team which won <100 games

Player	SV	Season	Team	Team Wins	%Saved
Edwin Díaz	57	2018	SEA	89	64%
Jeurys Familia	51	2016	NYM	87	59%
Mark Melancon	51	2015	PIT	98	52%
Jim Johnson	50	2013	BAL	85	59%
Craig Kimbrel	50	2013	ATL	96	52%
Fernando Rodney	48	2014	SEA	87	55%
Zack Britton	47	2016	BAL	89	53%
Alex Colomé	47	2017	TBR	80	59%
Greg Holland	47	2013	KCR	86	55%
Kenley Jansen	47	2016	LAD	91	52%
Craig Kimbrel	47	2014	ATL	79	59%
Greg Holland	46	2014	KCR	89	52%
Trevor Rosenthal	45	2014	STL	90	50%
Emmanuel Clase	44	2023	CLE	76	58%
Kenley Jansen	44	2014	LAD	94	47%
Mariano Rivera	44	2013	NYY	85	52%
Francisco Rodríguez	44	2016	DET	86	51%
Francisco Rodríguez	44	2014	MIL	82	54%
Wade Davis	43	2018	COL	91	47%
Jeurys Familia	43	2015	NYM	90	48%
Joe Nathan	43	2013	TEX	91	47%
Rafael Soriano	43	2013	WSN	86	50%
Emmanuel Clase	42	2022	CLE	92	46%
Brad Boxberger	41	2015	TBR	80	51%
Greg Holland	41	2017	COL	87	47%
Kirby Yates	41	2019	SDP	70	59%
AJ Ramos	40	2016	MIA	79	51%
Addison Reed	40	2013	CHW	63	63%
Huston Street	40	2015	LAA	85	47%
			Average	86	53%

[Moonlight J]

That table eliminates Melancon in 2016 and Street in 2014 who got 30+ saves while pitching for multiple teams that season. Clase is the only closer with 40+ saves in a single season in the past four full seasons, and he has done it twice.

[ironfist]

Makes sense that a great team would probably win more blowouts. Teams that are just good will probably be in closer games and have more save opportunities.

[madducks]

Makes sense that a great team would probably win more blowouts. Teams that are just good will probably be in closer games and have more save opportunities.

And losing teams will also have a lot of save opportunities.

Trevor May (can't believe he retired), last year, had 21 saves for an A's team that only won 50 games.

[Todd Zola]

My research on saves shows team save opportunities correlate best with winning percentage and team ERA. I also included runs scored and run differential in the study.

While there are outliers, between 45% and 55% of a team's win include a save. A primary closer captures around 85% of the team's saves.