RHD's Latest Top 150 Roto Prospects ("Pre-BA List" Version)

[rhd]

Baseball America posted their 2024 Top 100 list on Wednesday. I like to post my updated list before they post theirs so that I'm not influenced by their new rankings but I still havent recovered my file from my old PC. So I've kinda redone the list from scratch. I havent looked at BA's list yet so I'm still calling it the "Pre-BA List" version. Previous list was from 7/8/23.

The usual litany: I generally follow BA's prospect eligibility requirements, which are <=130 MLB AB or <=50 MLB IP. Unlike BA tho, amateurs, unsigned draftees, foreign players and newly-signed players from foreign leagues are eligible. Also, while BA has a different IP limit for relievers (30 IP?), relievers are eligible as long as they dont have >50 IP. As usual, this is for roto, not 'real' baseball, so pitchers are downgraded some, catchers downgraded somewhat (unless they're elite prospects and their bat will play at any position), actual closers are upgraded a lot, SB guys who project to get playing time get upgraded some, and guys who either currently are or project to soon be regulars can get upgraded quite a bit. Position listed is their current primary one to the best of my knowledge (correct me if I'm wrong), not the one they're likely to end up at.

Rank Name Pos Org Prev +/-
1 Jackson Holliday SS Bal 2 1
2 Jackson Chourio OF Mil 4 2
3 Evan Carter OF Tex 15 12
4 Junior Caminero 3B TB 9 5
5 Wyatt Langford OF Tex 7 2
6 Dylan Crews OF Was 3 -3
7 Jordan Lawlar SS Ari 5 -2
8 Pete Crow-Armstrong OF CHC 11 3
9 Yoshinobu Yamamoto SP LAD 43 34
10 Paul Skenes SP Pit 8 -2
11 James Wood OF Was 6 -5
12 Adael Amador SS Col 33 21
13 Walker Jenkins OF Min 12 -1
14 Max Clark OF Det 13 -1
15 Noelvi Marte 3B Cin 29 14
16 Colt Keith 3B Det 16 0
17 Colson Montgomery SS CHW 51 34
18 Jackson Merrill SS SD 39 21
19 Jasson Dominguez OF NYY 19 0
20 Roman Anthony OF Bos 89 69
21 Brooks Lee SS Min 34 13
22 Marcelo Mayer SS Bos 10 -12
23 Colton Cowser OF Bal 14 -9
24 Coby Mayo OF Bal 48 24
25 Jett (J.T.) Williams SS NYM 103 78
26 Tyler Black 3B Mil 65 39
27 Jose (Luisangel) Acuna OF NYM 50 23
28 Ceddanne Rafaela OF Bos 62 34
29 Masyn Winn SS StL 18 -11
30 Termarr Johnson 2B Pit 31 1
31 Justin Crawford OF Phi 57 26
32 Kyle Harrison SP SF 36 4
33 Ricky Tiedemann SP Tor 24 -9
34 Carson Williams SS TB 37 3
35 Chase Delauter OF Cle 101 66
36 Matt Shaw 2B CHC NR NA
37 Cole Young SS Sea 61 24
38 Brady House 3B Was 55 17
39 Emmanuel Rodriguez OF Min 56 17
40 Shane Baz SP TB 60 20
41 Roki Sasaki SP 26? 44 3
42 Jung-Hoo Lee OF SF 42 0
43 Kyle Manzardo 1B Cle 30 -13
44 Marco Luciano SS SF 58 14
45 Shota Imanaga SP CHC NR NA
46 Druw Jones OF Ari 25 -21
47 Colt Emerson SS Sea NR NA
48 Gabriel Gonzalez OF Sea 86 38
49 Brayan Rocchio SS Cle 38 -11
50 Curtis Mead 3B TB 59 9
51 Heston Kjerstad OF Bal 63 12
52 Spencer Jones OF NYY 90 38
53 Victor Scott OF StL NR NA
54 Owen Caissie OF CHC 129 75
55 Michael Busch 2B CHC 85 30
56 A.J. Smith-Shawver SP Atl 77 21
57 Robby Snelling SP SD 110 53
58 Cade Horton SP CHC 111 53
59 Mick Abel SP Phi 76 17
60 J.J. Wetherholt 2B College 147 87
61 Travis Bazzana 2B College NR NA
62 Nick Kurtz 1B College 148 86
63 Sebastian Walcott SS Tex NR NA
64 Ethan Salas C SD 122 58
65 Samuel Basallo C Bal NR NA
66 Jackson Jobe SP Det NR NA
67 Jacob Misiorowski SP Mil 93 26
68 Noah Schultz SP CHW NR NA
69 Rhett Lowder SP Cin 68 -1
70 Mason Miller SP Oak 144 74
71 Connor Phillips SP Cin 80 9
72 Jordan Wicks SP CHC NR NA
73 Harry Ford C Sea 98 25
74 Drew Gilbert OF NYM 91 17
75 Ryan Clifford OF NYM 113 38
76 Yanquiel Fernandez OF Col 64 -12
77 Jordan Beck OF Col 88 11
78 Sterlin Thompson 2B Col 87 9
79 Nick Yorke 2B Bos 54 -25
80 Nelson Rada OF LAA 130 50
81 Jonatan Clase OF Sea 32 -49
82 Edwin Arroyo SS Cin 75 -7
83 Carlos Jorge SS Cin 66 -17
84 Jeferson Quero C Mil 123 39
85 Anthony Solometo SP Pit 115 30
86 Jared Jones SP Pit 114 28
87 Chase Hampton SP NYY 117 30
88 Hurston Waldrep SP Atl NR NA
89 Garrett Mitchell OF Mil 140 51
90 Nolan Schanuel 1B LAA NR NA
91 Orelvis Martinez 3B Tor 128 37
92 Darell Hernaiz SS Oak NR NA
93 Xavier Edwards 2B Mia NR NA
94 Roderick Arias SS NYY NR NA
95 Noble Meyer SP Mia 146 51
96 Dylan Lesko SP SD 107 11
97 Daniel Espino SP Cle 142 45
98 Tink Hence SP StL 92 -6
99 Tommy Troy 2B Ari NR NA
100 Kevin Alcantara OF CHC 138 38
101 Justin Foscue 2B Tex 126 25
102 Connor Norby 2B Bal 94 -8
103 Jace Jung 2B Det NR NA
104 Andrew Painter SP Phi 35 -69
105 Ronny Mauricio SS NYM 49 -56
106 Gavin Stone SP LAD 81 -25
107 Drew Thorpe SP SD NR NA
108 Robert Gasser SP Mil NR NA
109 Chase Petty SP Cin 105 -4
110 Edgar Quero C CHW NR NA
111 Wilyer Abreu OF Bos NR NA
112 Parker Meadows OF Det NR NA
113 Thomas Saggese SS StL NR NA
114 Everson Pereira OF NYY 100 -14
115 Josue De Paula OF LAD NR NA
116 Lazaro Montes OF Sea NR NA
117 Andy Pages OF LAD 143 26
118 Xavier Isaac 1B TB NR NA
119 Bryce Eldridge 1B SF NR NA
120 Leodalis DeVries SS SD NR NA
121 Bubba Chandler SP Pit NR NA
122 Tekoah Roby SP StL NR NA
123 Luis Danys Morales SP Oak NR NA
124 Christian Scott SP NYM NR NA
125 Bryan Ramos 3B CHW NR NA
126 James Triantos 3B CHC NR NA
127 Samuel Zavala OF SD 136 9
128 Juan Brito 2B Cle NR NA
129 Jacob Wilson SS Oak 40 -89
130 Sal Stewart 3B Cin NR NA
131 Enrique Bradfield OF Bal 67 -64
132 Miguel Bleis OF Bos 102 -30
133 George Valera OF Cle 97 -36
134 Cameron Collier 3B Cin 72 -62
135 Kyle Teel C Bos NR NA
136 Brock Porter SP Tex 108 -28
137 Carson Whisenhunt SP SF 127 -10
138 Ty Madden SP Det 116 -22
139 Luis Lara OF Mil 112 -27
140 Joe Boyle SP Oak NR NA
141 Justyn-Henry Malloy 3B Det NR NA
142 Ethan Holliday SS HS NR NA
143 Jac Caglianone 1B/SP College NR NA
144 Vance Honeycutt OF College 149 5
145 Mike Sirota OF College NR NA
146 Seaver King SS College NR NA
147 Charlie Condon OF College NR NA
148 Chase Burns SP College NR NA
149 Munetaka Murakami 3B Japan 150 1
150 Kazuma Okamoto 3B Japan NR NA

Lost Eligibility (23): E. De La Cruz (1), S. Frelick (17), A. Abbott (20), G. Williams (21), B. Miller (22), G. Rodriguez (23), O. Peraza (26), L Matos (27), J. Westburg (28), E. Sheehan (45), B. Woo (46), C. Encarnacion-Strand (47), E. Julien (52), B. Pfaadt (71), M. Vientos (83), J. Aranda (95), Z. Gelof (96), Joh. Rojas (104), H. Davis (119), L. O'Hoppe (120), En. Rodriguez (121), B. Naylor (139), R. Pepiot (145)

Eligibles Dropped off (23): C. Dollander (41), T. Soderstrom (53), J. Gonzalez (69), N. Gonzales (70), R. Hassell (73), E. Green (74), B. Brown (78), Q. Priester (79), O. White (82), M. Mervis (84), W. Flores (99), G. Graceffo (106), O. Basabe (109), F. Mozzicato (118), D. Rushing (124), D. Cartaya (125), I. Alvarez (131), B. Jordan (132), T. Locklear (133), J. Susana (134), J. Leiter (135), Al. Ramirez (137), Z. Veen (141)

As always, comments are not only welcome but encouraged.


And now, I will go look at BA's list. Enjoy!

[Sharky]

Great fun as always (and very much appreciated), rhd!

Interesting to note where you seem to be higher/lower than my sense of the market. For example:

You seem lower on Jobe, Salas — in keeping with your philosophy.
Conversely, higher on PCA, Evan Carter, Montgomery, some others despite reports of certain swing weaknesses.

Not nitpicking, just observing. This is an awesome resource and much appreciated.

[Pauly]

Amazing as always!

Druw Jones -21 stuck out to me. Is this based on all the missed time last year? They were just soft tissue injuries IIRC.

Marlins fan me was hoping to see Max Meyer....and also Victor Mesa and Yiddi Cappe. The latter two definitely wish-casting, but Meyer?

[Ken]

Amazing as always!

Druw Jones -21 stuck out to me. Is this based on all the missed time last year? They were just soft tissue injuries IIRC.

Marlins fan me was hoping to see Max Meyer....and also Victor Mesa and Yiddi Cappe. The latter two definitely wish-casting, but Meyer?

Druw Jones hast just been bad as a pro. I guess the hope is that he's going to mature, but so far he's a huge bust

[rhd]

Amazing as always!

Druw Jones -21 stuck out to me. Is this based on all the missed time last year? They were just soft tissue injuries IIRC.

Marlins fan me was hoping to see Max Meyer....and also Victor Mesa and Yiddi Cappe. The latter two definitely wish-casting, but Meyer?

Thanx for the reply, Pauly.

Re: Jones, part of his problem is that he's been hurt a lot. You hope for his sake that the talent is still there and will emerge when he has a fully healthy season. The industry is pretty down on him. BA did not have him in their top 100 at all. Bleacher Report had him at (#60. I think that I'm still modestly bullish by ranking him (#46.

I've always been a bit skeptical about Max Meyer. I wondered if he'd succeed as a starter as a smallish righty. And then he had a major arm injury. I considered putting him on the list but I'm taking a wait and see approach w him (BTW, BA has him at (#89.). Well, at least I have Noble Meyer on the list .

[rhd]

Great fun as always (and very much appreciated), rhd!

Interesting to note where you seem to be higher/lower than my sense of the market. For example:

You seem lower on Jobe, Salas — in keeping with your philosophy.
Conversely, higher on PCA, Evan Carter, Montgomery, some others despite reports of certain swing weaknesses.

Not nitpicking, just observing. This is an awesome resource and much appreciated.

Thanx as always for the reply, Sharky.

Yes, catchers like Salas are going to be considerably lower on my list. I've been burned too many times by highly-ranked catchers that have turned out to be complete fantasy busts.

The concern w Carter was whether he would develop enough power to profile as a corner OFer. He had modest exit velos in the minors but they went up significantly when he hit the bigs. His very impressive MLB debut as a 21-y/o has made me bullish on him. It looks like he has grown into his power and could be an AS-caliber hitter for years to come. I havent heard about any swing weaknesses w Montgomery. I had been deferring to the scouts on him for a while because he really hadnt put up impressive numbers until this year. But in 2023 the stats started matching the hype which generally is what I wait for before I rank a prospect in the elite range. BA says he would profile well as a corner OFer, which says they're not worried about his bat. Re: PCA, his lack of success in a very small sample size in MLB might make you worry about his bat but he hit .300 in the minors w moderate power. BA says he's grown into average raw power and they're not worried about the higher than average swing and miss. And he is a plus runner who should racks up plenty of SBs. He is an elite defender and there's noone blocking him rt now in the Cubs MLB roster so he should be a regular going forward soon if not on opening day.

[onejayhawk]

I have Wyatt Langford, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Jackson Merril.

Last year I had four of the top 25 and emerged with Gunnar and Elly. I hope it goes as well this season.

The guy on the fence is Colt Kieth. How soon is he expected and how high is the upside?

[rhd]

I have Wyatt Langford, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Jackson Merril.

Last year I had four of the top 25 and emerged with Gunnar and Elly. I hope it goes as well this season.

The guy on the fence is Colt Kieth. How soon is he expected and how high is the upside?

Thanx for the reply, J.

Keith really had a breakout season last year between AA and AAA. He plays both 3B and 2B but BA says he's more likely to play 2B. He would be an upgrade for Detroit at either position since their projected starters are Zach McKinstry at 2B and Matt Vierling at 3B. So I would project that he's in the Tigers starting lineup by mid-season. Re: upside, BA says he is a pure hitter w plus power and give him a FV of 55-medium risk. So I would say above-average regular who could be AS-caliber if he can stick at 2B.

[harmon]

Thanx for the reply, J.

Keith really had a breakout season last year between AA and AAA. He plays both 3B and 2B but BA says he's more likely to play 2B. He would be an upgrade for Detroit at either position since their projected starters are Zach McKinstry at 2B and Matt Vierling at 3B. So I would project that he's in the Tigers starting lineup by mid-season. Re: upside, BA says he is a pure hitter w plus power and give him a FV of 55-medium risk. So I would say above-average regular who could be AS-caliber if he can stick at 2B.

In this scenario do you see Malloy getting a shot at 3B in 2024?

Fantrax notes that Malloy moved to OF from 3B last season in order to get out of the way for Keith at 3B.

[rhd]

In this scenario do you see Malloy getting a shot at 3B in 2024?

Fantrax notes that Malloy moved to OF from 3B last season in order to get out of the way for Keith at 3B.

Thanx for the reply, Harmon.

That's interesting that they said that Malloy moved to the OF to make room for Keith because BA said about Keith "Scouts see him as more likely to play second than third base". FG does not project Malloy to be in MLB at all initially, as they are projecting Parker Meadows to be in the OF. Actually, Malloy might be the guy I feel least confident about being on my list. I considered removing him for someone else but there was noone else that I really was excited about moving on. And after spending so much time working on the list over several days, I was just tired and wanted to be done so I just posted it. I figure that Malloy will get a chance at some point this year, as Meadows is mostly unproven in the OF and Vierling at 3B is no sure thing. BA actually has Malloy above Meadows on the Tigers' list and says he should be in Detroit sometime in 2024.

[harmon]

Thanks.....does BA project Malloy to play 3B or OF?

[rhd]

Thanks.....does BA project Malloy to play 3B or OF?

They say that, because of throwing concerns at 3B, he projects to stay in the OF long-term.

[harmon]

They say that, because of throwing concerns at 3B, he projects to stay in the OF long-term.

Ah ok, that would reduce his chances of making any impact in a redraft league this year.

[rhd]

Ah ok, that would reduce his chances of making any impact in a redraft league this year.

I would expect him to produce something in MLB this year. A lot of people actually were expecting him to be up last year. I'd say he's worth a reserve round pick in a redraft.

[harmon]

I would expect him to produce something in MLB this year. A lot of people actually were expecting him to be up last year. I'd say he's worth a reserve round pick in a redraft.

Well, I took Malloy with pick # 638 (round 43) in a 50 player draft and hold. He has 3B eligibility to start the year and would gain OF after 10 games there. At this point he seems like a decent flyer. Home park might suppress his power a bit but he looks like a pretty strong dude.