At Cost Wheeler or Slightly Below Cost Bo Naylor or Carlos Estevez?

[Sour Masher]

I think this general subject has come up before, but I forget what people said on the subject--do you generally prefer to keep expensive, but fair value studs or slightly below cost lower tier keepers? In my case, the context is a 14 team mixed league. I have Zack Wheeler 76, Bo Naylor 5, and Carlos Estevez 5 and I am trying to decide who to keep for my 15th keeper.

The prices are way out line with what you guys would be used to, because it is a $400 league instead of 260, we keep 15 per team in the majors and 20 minor leaguers, so inflation is close to 100%, and it is a points league, so pitchers are worth more. Wheeler went for 76 last year and I expect he would go for between 75-80 again this year. He would be the 3rd best arm available, behind Gausman and Castillo. The only reason I am somewhat hesitant to keep him is Aaron Nola, who went for $80 last year, I think will go for a good bit less after his off year. If I could get Nola for like $60, I'd prefer that, because I think Nola could be nearly as good as Wheeler (I know there is no logical reason for a player to be better in even number years, but Nola always has been). So, I'm leaning to keeping Naylor or Estevez, with Naylor in the lead. Still, price certainty is nice and, in general, I lean to keeping studs in a mixed league, especially with auction inflation being so high. While I like Naylor, I don't think he or Estevez would go for more than $8-10 in the auction.

[Moonlight J]

I prefer the latter, only because what I may perceive as fairly valued Wheeler at $76 may be higher than the rest. If I'm throwing Wheeler back at $76, my league mates may feel I won't go that high in a bid. I'll let the rest of the room bid him up and then maybe jump in at $76 and a neutral auctioneer may not wait for the room to adjust and count it out. If you're self-auctioneering, the surprise table chat may delay such a tactic and render it useless.

[Gregg]

In my case it depends a lot on how many aces are back in the auction, how much money and who has it. If pickings are slim and money is plentiful I am keeping league at value stars. It doesn't do me much good to have to overpay for mediocrity in the auction.

Your case is a tough call for me only from the perspective of the shocking price of Wheeler. It has nothing to do with Naylor or Estevez as I could get them back cheaply if I wanted them. I think I would keep Wheeler and maybe even still buy Nola if I could.

[Sour Masher]

Thanks to you both. If I don't keep Wheeler but do keep a $5 player, I will have $178 to spend on 15 players (we have 30 man rosters). If I do keep him, I will have $107. My most pressing needs are an SP and corners. I am losing Matt Olson, Jose Ramirez, and Yandy Diaz on expiring contracts at the corners, so I have huge holes there that I am not used to having. Luckily, the auction is stacked with 3bman, so I will have options there. Pitching is thinner--the best guys are the ones I am losing (I went all in for the title). I'd love to get one of the big three I have to toss back--Gausman, Castillo, and Wheeler. I rank them in that order, but Wheeler is the only one not expiring, and I know one guy has been coveting my Castillo for a couple of years and has told me he plans on going up to $90 for him. I suspect Gausman goes for close to that as well. I think Nola and Fried go for less, and if I want to go really affordable, I could snag a Nick Pivetta or Michael King for like $20-25.

I likely will not end up keeping Wheeler, only because I still don't know if I should go top tier at 1b and 3b instead and go cheap on pitching, or if I should spend the majority of my money on one top tier arm and one top tier corner and go cheap for my other two corners. I know I can't afford to get both Olson and Ramirez back--they will go for $85-$95 each. Part of me wants to go a bit cheaper and land Nola and Bregman for like $120, so I have some money to shore up my other two corner spots, my MIF, and get some bench depth, but I try not to laser focus in on why or two guys, because sometimes others end up with the same plan and bid the guys I think will be cheaper up closer to the guys I prefer.

[ssmallz]

First off what is the real inlfation rate? You can't look at the standard values based off a $260 salary cap and say thats your inflation rate. I punched in the value of Wheeler in the fangraphs auction calculator with a 14 team $400 cap and got a $55 uniflated rate. If that's the case, then you're looking at a 40% inflation rate which may or may not be accurate based on previous drafts. The next step is figure out his actual value and the formalu for that is his value - (price you can keep him at/(1+inflation rate). There's also the roster construction aspect to deal with, in a league with high inflation things can get pretty crazy at the top so you may end up overpaying for talent you don't really want b/c you have to spend money. Given the choice between wheeler, an ace and 2 other guys with limited high risk/high reward just bc they are cheap, I would take Wheeler. The value is there and it will make the rest of your draft easier

[Gregg]

First off what is the real inlfation rate? You can't look at the standard values based off a $260 salary cap and say thats your inflation rate. I punched in the value of Wheeler in the fangraphs auction calculator with a 14 team $400 cap and got a $55 uniflated rate. If that's the case, then you're looking at a 40% inflation rate which may or may not be accurate based on previous drafts. The next step is figure out his actual value and the formalu for that is his value - (price you can keep him at/(1+inflation rate). There's also the roster construction aspect to deal with, in a league with high inflation things can get pretty crazy at the top so you may end up overpaying for talent you don't really want b/c you have to spend money. Given the choice between wheeler, an ace and 2 other guys with limited high risk/high reward just bc they are cheap, I would take Wheeler. The value is there and it will make the rest of your draft easier

He also mentioned in the OP that inflation is close to 100%.

[ssmallz]

He also mentioned in the OP that inflation is close to 100%.

Right but he also said that $76 is about the expected value for wheeler. If he's talking about a 100% inflation rate based off of $400 salary cap values then wheeler would be expected to go closer to $110. I'm not sure if the 100% number quoted in OP is an inflation rate based on $400 values or $260 values. In any case, higher inflation rates favor keeping expensive players over cheaper ones so if inflation really is 100% then keeping Wheeler is a no brainer

[Gregg]

Right but he also said that $76 is about the expected value for wheeler. If he's talking about a 100% inflation rate based off of $400 salary cap values then wheeler would be expected to go closer to $110. I'm not sure if the 100% number quoted in OP is an inflation rate based on $400 values or $260 values. In any case, higher inflation rates favor keeping expensive players over cheaper ones so if inflation really is 100% then keeping Wheeler is a no brainer

Yes.

I am in the camp of keeping Wheeler over Naylor and Estevez.

[Sour Masher]

Right but he also said that $76 is about the expected value for wheeler. If he's talking about a 100% inflation rate based off of $400 salary cap values then wheeler would be expected to go closer to $110. I'm not sure if the 100% number quoted in OP is an inflation rate based on $400 values or $260 values. In any case, higher inflation rates favor keeping expensive players over cheaper ones so if inflation really is 100% then keeping Wheeler is a no brainer

FWIW, when I our specific league information, I got Wheeler uninflated at $41 using Steamer projections, which tracks with what I think he would go for in our auction with nearly 100% inflation (I am going by last year when it was like 95% and I expect it to be similar this year, and Wheeler should go for close to $80 like last year). I think you are right--going with the stud at a fair price is the way to go with marginal keepers as my other options.

There is one other option--the guy who has Ozuna for $6 is looking to move him, because he also has Ohtani in his utility spot. Ozuna was remarkably good last year and I can get him for a prospect I can part with, but two things are holding me back: 1. I generally avoid players with domestic violence issues and/or other issues that make me not want to root for them; I don't judge those who roster such players (in fact, I am releived when they get bid up), but I just don't like rooting for those guys, and 2. I think Ozuna regresses substantially from his surprise 2023 numbers. I may end up breaking my rule, because the buying opportunity is there and even with regression, Ozuna will likely value my other options by a large margin.

This isn't where this thread started, but now that I am here, do you all roster known bad guys, and if you have, has it impacted your enjoyment of their success on your team? And how much do you think Ozuna regresses on his seemingly out of nowhere 2023.