Ranking Hurt Pitchers

[Sour Masher]

We have 4 IL spots in my league, so I'm thinking of targeted one or two hurt arms to stash for late this year and/or next year. How would you all rank the following, and are there any you would go more than a couple of dollars on, either as someone you hope comes back this year or as a keeper? Oh, I included Urias just because I am curious. I do not plan on rostering him, but I want to get a sense of his perceived value to get a handle on how much he might go for compared to the hurt guys who I would consider rostering:

Shane McClanahan--TJ in August
Brandon Woodruff--capsule surgery in October
Felix Bautista--TJ in October
Jacob DeGrom--TJ in June
Robbie Ray--TJ in May
Max Scherer--Back surgery in December
Sandy Alcantara--TJ in October
Tyler Mahle--TJ in May
German Marquez--TJ in May
Jeffrey Springs--TJ in April
Liam Hendriks--TJ August
Clayton Kershaw--shoulder capsule in November
Luis Garcia--TJ in May
Lane McCullers--forearm surgery, not TJ in June
Dustin May--TJ clean up in July
Drew Rassmussen--TJ in July
Julio Urias--suspension inevitable
Trevor Bauer--I know a guy in my league who is very excited to bid on him, but not sure if he gets him for $1


Am I missing any names of note (I left Painter off, because he is minor league eligible).

[Ken]

A few more:

Shane McClanahan
Felix Bautista
Andrew Painter

[Moonlight J]

I'd do something along the lines of adding their surgery datre and sorting from there. I personally don't roster TJS guys until they're 2 full years post surgery. If you take one of these guys - like Alcantara since he had a late one, you're unlikely to get a Sandy-like year until the option year of his three-year contract. I let others deal with that issue unless I know my team is going to suck in year 1 so I'll draft those guys and flip them to optimistic owners.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Lance McCullers as well I believe.

[Sour Masher]

I'd do something along the lines of adding their surgery datre and sorting from there. I personally don't roster TJS guys until they're 2 full years post surgery. If you take one of these guys - like Alcantara since he had a late one, you're unlikely to get a Sandy-like year until the option year of his three-year contract. I let others deal with that issue unless I know my team is going to suck in year 1 so I'll draft those guys and flip them to optimistic owners.

Thanks, good idea. I added the dates and the injury to the original post.

[Todd Zola]

Brandon Woodruff, Nick Lodolo, Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs, Luis Garcia (HOU)

[Sour Masher]

Brandon Woodruff, Nick Lodolo, Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs, Luis Garcia (HOU)

I added the others, but Lodolo might be ready to start the year, no? He avoided surgery.

[Sour Masher]

So, anyone stand out to anyone? Anyone going to be targeting any of these guys for this year or next?

[madducks]

So, anyone stand out to anyone? Anyone going to be targeting any of these guys for this year or next?

They're all risky. But, DeGrom, Kershaw, Alcantara, McClanahan, and Woodruff all stand out to me as offering the greatest possible reward if they can return to form. So, I would take any one of those pitchers if they are discounted enough.

Does anyone know if shoulder capsule surgery has a quicker recovery time than TJ surgery? I would think so since TJ surgery seems to be universally considered the worst case scenario for pitchers

[Sour Masher]

They're all risky. But, DeGrom, Kershaw, Alcantara, McClanahan, and Woodruff all stand out to me as offering the greatest possible reward if they can return to form. So, I would take any one of those pitchers if they are discounted enough.

Does anyone know if shoulder capsule surgery has a quicker recovery time than TJ surgery? I would think so since TJ surgery seems to be universally considered the worst case scenario for pitchers

Similar timelines, but I think the capsule surgeries have less of a track record and anecdotally, have a higher failure rate. I know Urias successfully came back from one after about 19 months, but many guys never get back right from it. Kershaw give how he has degraded over the years, might be done. I sure hope not, but he might be. Woodruff, I read his surgery went as well as could be expected and seemed less severe than other cases. That, coupled with his age makes me think he will get back in 2025 close enough to his old self to make him worth the gamble.

Guys like Degrom and Ray--I'm just not sure what they might do late this year. I know it takes awhile for most to get back fully, but some do pretty well even initially. Closers also seem to come back quicker, so I'm thinking Bautista is a good gamble for 2025. Hendricks is older, so I don't know about him.

[Ken]

If you are including Urias, shouldn't Bauer be on here?

[Sour Masher]

If you are including Urias, shouldn't Bauer be on here?

I guess he should be. Or maybe both should be off the list, since they injure others instead of themselves. At this point, I'd take rankings/prices on any of them. It is hard for me to get a handle on how these guys might affect inflation, since I imagine it is variable year to year. We generally have one or two teams willing to bid up hurt players for the next year, but there are so many prominent hurt arms this year, I'm not sure if there will be enough bidders on all of them to push more than the top 2-3 more than a $1-3. I think Shane probably goes for the most of the bunch (he is being kept in my league, as is Woodruff). In my league, I'd guess Degrom goes for the most.

[madducks]

Kershaw says that he’s targeting a midseason return.

[Sour Masher]

It does not seem realistic for Kershaw to expect that recovery timeline unless his capsule injury is very different from all the others.

[Sour Masher]

I have only read he hopes to pitch at some point over the summer, which Woodruff said too. Neither seems realistic.