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If you were in a league where you believed a position, or more specifically, the top tier of a position, was being consistently undervalued, would you shift your keeper and extension decisions to match the going rate of that position, or would you stay closer to your own valuations of player worth when making keeper and extension decisions?
That is the broader, general question. The more specific question in my case is this: I am in a points league where the scoring system is such that very elite closers like Edwin Diaz and Felix Bautista are top 10 pitchers in points scored (same points for saves as wins, and 2 pts per K). It is a weekly line up league, though, so SP depth has a big advantage, because two start pitchers can really tip the scales. That fact, coupled with the volatile nature of closers, and the fact that we award half points for holds, which raises the floor on the position quite a bit, means that closers are rightly valued significantly less than starters who score the same amount of points. But by my estimation, my league goes too far in devaluing elite closers specifically. It is a points league, and points are points. Even accounting for the advantages of rotating in two starts into our flex pitching spots, the elite closers go (the small handful that are relatively safe and K a lot of batters), in my estimation, about 50% less than they should ( I should note that we have to RP slots and two flex spots, so we can start up to 4 closers).
Given the facts above, if you had, say, a $10 Devin Williams due an extension, would you extend him to $15, because you think he will earn at least $30, even though you know he would only go for $20 in your open auction? I realize the two examples I use, Diaz and Bautista (I have all three on my team--Diaz, Bautista, and Williams), are evidence to not extend, since both got hurt, but the same is true for all pitchers, and because this is a points league where top pitchers score as much as top hitters, it is still common practice to extend elite SPs. I understand being more cautious with closers in general, but I see the auction prices of elite closers as a clear market inefficiency, which I have exploited with very good success over the years.
This year, I am faced with the Devin Williams decision above. He is a top 2-3 reliever in my league, as safe as a closer can come, and a strong value by my value calculations. If players like him went for the prices I think they should go for, to me, he is a no brainer extension to $15. But since my league undervalues elite closers (I only think the undervaluation is at the top), does it make more sense to make my extension decision based on market prices rather than my valuations? Likewise, would you choose to keep a mid-tier SP like Zac Eflin over Williams, based on league values, even if your values have Williams worth several dollars more than the midtier starter?
I realize the answer is likely to go with the market, and I usually do, but I always worry the league will catch on to this inefficiency, and realize my success is due in part to exploiting it, but they have not done so yet. Still, the pull to keep a player who will outscore another one by a large margin in a points league is very strong for me. I am torn between going with the flow of how the league values SPs vs RPs and my strong inclination to trust my values and keep and extend elite closers like Diaz and Williams over SPs they will outscore (even though those SPs will go for more money in the auction than the elite closers).
That is the broader, general question. The more specific question in my case is this: I am in a points league where the scoring system is such that very elite closers like Edwin Diaz and Felix Bautista are top 10 pitchers in points scored (same points for saves as wins, and 2 pts per K). It is a weekly line up league, though, so SP depth has a big advantage, because two start pitchers can really tip the scales. That fact, coupled with the volatile nature of closers, and the fact that we award half points for holds, which raises the floor on the position quite a bit, means that closers are rightly valued significantly less than starters who score the same amount of points. But by my estimation, my league goes too far in devaluing elite closers specifically. It is a points league, and points are points. Even accounting for the advantages of rotating in two starts into our flex pitching spots, the elite closers go (the small handful that are relatively safe and K a lot of batters), in my estimation, about 50% less than they should ( I should note that we have to RP slots and two flex spots, so we can start up to 4 closers).
Given the facts above, if you had, say, a $10 Devin Williams due an extension, would you extend him to $15, because you think he will earn at least $30, even though you know he would only go for $20 in your open auction? I realize the two examples I use, Diaz and Bautista (I have all three on my team--Diaz, Bautista, and Williams), are evidence to not extend, since both got hurt, but the same is true for all pitchers, and because this is a points league where top pitchers score as much as top hitters, it is still common practice to extend elite SPs. I understand being more cautious with closers in general, but I see the auction prices of elite closers as a clear market inefficiency, which I have exploited with very good success over the years.
This year, I am faced with the Devin Williams decision above. He is a top 2-3 reliever in my league, as safe as a closer can come, and a strong value by my value calculations. If players like him went for the prices I think they should go for, to me, he is a no brainer extension to $15. But since my league undervalues elite closers (I only think the undervaluation is at the top), does it make more sense to make my extension decision based on market prices rather than my valuations? Likewise, would you choose to keep a mid-tier SP like Zac Eflin over Williams, based on league values, even if your values have Williams worth several dollars more than the midtier starter?
I realize the answer is likely to go with the market, and I usually do, but I always worry the league will catch on to this inefficiency, and realize my success is due in part to exploiting it, but they have not done so yet. Still, the pull to keep a player who will outscore another one by a large margin in a points league is very strong for me. I am torn between going with the flow of how the league values SPs vs RPs and my strong inclination to trust my values and keep and extend elite closers like Diaz and Williams over SPs they will outscore (even though those SPs will go for more money in the auction than the elite closers).
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