Keeping Felix Bautista?

[Sour Masher]

I have him for $5. He wouldn't have to be extended until the start of the 2025 season. After trading a lot to win a title, I'm not flush with other options for my 15th and final keeper. The only other guy I have who may be worthy is Carlos Estevez $5, but I already have Edwin Diaz and Devin Williams, so I don't really need another closer for this year, certainly not a mediocre one. For 2025, Devin will be gone, so it would be cool to have Diaz and Bautista, assuming Bautista recovers well from TJ.

I generally prefer not to keep closers at all, but when I can land the best on the cheap, I gotta go where the value is. Edwin went for $9 in our auction, based on his long term value (we keep 15 per team, so lots of inflation). I expect Bautista would go for about the same if I let him go, but then he wouldn't be due for extension until 2026. So, I don't know why I am considering keeping him other than the price certainty, my love for the guy as a dominate closer, and my belief that if I am patient, I can deal him late in the season for something good for the stretch run. We do have 4 IL spots, so stashing him won't be a problem. But should I just let him go into the auction? Part of my struggle is I may be victim to sunk cost fallacy. I dealt Riley Greene to get him in season, and while he helped me a lot last year, I hate to think I gave up a cheap Greene for what amounts to nothing long term. But letting him go and getting him back for $10, or just letting him go to someone else, might be best. I already have Woodruff on my roster eating a spot and $20.

[revo]

If you think he's gonna go for ~$9, then why not

[Sour Masher]

If you think he's gonna go for ~$9, then why not

Cuz if he goes for $9, it costs me $4 more for 2024, but then I'd have the luxury of keeping him for $9 for 2025 without having to decide if I want to extend him. If I keep him now, I'd have to either ride him out for $5 in 2025 or decide if I want to give him another year before I see him pitch. Conversely, I could just toss him back and let someone else spend on him.

[Gregg]

I would keep him for $5. If he is healthy in 2025 he is no brainer to extend.

I have him at $5B so he moves to an x contract this year without extending. I am not willing to sit on him for 10 this year for a maybe in 2025. So no raise.

I am going to throw him back and see if I can get that endgame new contract in the upcoming auction. Hoping for $6 or under. We have 12 man benches so I can easily replace the roster spot with a middle reliever.

[revo]

Cuz if he goes for $9, it costs me $4 more for 2024, but then I'd have the luxury of keeping him for $9 for 2025 without having to decide if I want to extend him. If I keep him now, I'd have to either ride him out for $5 in 2025 or decide if I want to give him another year before I see him pitch. Conversely, I could just toss him back and let someone else spend on him.

That assumes you land him. If you keep him, then he's locked up.

[Sour Masher]

That assumes you land him. If you keep him, then he's locked up.

Yeah, I think I will keep him. I will feel better about it if I can move Woodruff. I hate having two spots filled with guys out in 2024 eating up $25.

[Ken]

When are your roster decisions due? I wouldn’t be keeping Woodruff that shoulder surgery could be a career ender

[Sour Masher]

When are your roster decisions due? I wouldn’t be keeping Woodruff that shoulder surgery could be a career ender

I am trying to move him, but no one wants him. I'd have to either keep him at $20 or buy him out at $30. I think I have to roll the dice that he has value in 2025. Buying him out puts me in an even bigger hole in 2024.

[Ken]

I am trying to move him, but no one wants him. I'd have to either keep him at $20 or buy him out at $30. I think I have to roll the dice that he has value in 2025. Buying him out puts me in an even bigger hole in 2024.

Seems fitting here that we should talk about injured pitchers and long term contracts and how debilitating they can be.

I would definitely not keep a hurt closer personally. If someone else wants to buy him and stash him, that's less $ chasing the players I want.

Below it was stated if he comes back in 2025 and he's healthy he's a no-brainer to extend. I disagree obviously!

[Todd Zola]

I think there's also something to be said about the opportunity cost of locking up a precious pitching roster spot in a mixed league. Seems to me there are always "$1 guys" undrafted.

[Sour Masher]

Additional context I often leave out about my league, because it is so weird--we started this league 30 years ago, while in highs school, and made up a cap number we have kept. We have a $400 cap, 15 major league keepers, and 20 minors. It all adds up to such absurd inflation, the standard advice about keepers, I'd argue, don't translate to our league. While I agree that pitcher extensions are to be avoided in most league, in our league, Gerritt Cole went for $101 last year, so not extending ace level pitchers leaves so much profit on the table, it is common practice for all of us to extend guys like Woodruff for multiple years. I am more conservative than most, but even I extend pitchers multiple years if I think they are an ace (my general rule is to not extend lesser arms, and to not extend any arm past $20). It sometimes will burn us, but if I didn't do it, I think I'd have a lot less titles in this league. And we also have 10 bench spots, so burning one on a hurt player isn't as bad in this league as it is in most.

I have tried to sell Woodruff on the basis that he would go for over $50 in 2025, assuming he appears to be healthy, but the biggest reason I can't give him away, is the uncertainty that he does come back healthy in 2025. One never knows with shoulder injuries. Still, I can't bring myself to buy him out at $30 when if I keep him for $20, I should see significant positive value in 2025. He says his surgery went well, and guys like Urias have come back from the procedure well. While I know there is risk, I think I have to see it through given the value upside in 2025.

Felix, I don't know. Part of me wants to put him back in the auction, as I prefer to pay $10 and not have to extend him in 2025. Edwin Diaz went for $9, and while I wasted that $9 in 2023, I still won the title, and I suppose, I arrogantly think I can overcome the wasted funds again. But the other part of me thinks spending just $5 in 2024 is the better strategy given my current roster, which is weaker than I can ever remember (I traded a lot of future value, but managed to win the last two titles). I have never missed the playoffs in this league, which is a point of pride, but 2024 is going to be a real challenge to continue that streak. So, wasting even $5 is risky. Still, if I can stay in it until the trade deadline, I think I could trade Felix for something pretty good to a dumper.