Will Ohtani be traded this month and who to?

[rhd]

Forgive me if there's already a thread on this - I didnt see one. It doesnt look like the Angels are going anywhere this year so it makes sense for them to trade Ohtani, altho maybe they wont. But if they do, who gets him? BA did an article today on the likeliest teams to get him. According to them, those teams are the Dodgers, Orioles, Rangers, Phillies and Reds. This is based mainly on likelihood of winning now and having the prospects to nab him. It makes sense that whoever makes a big play for him thinks they can sign him long-term so personally I dont see how the Reds would get him because they cant afford him. I wonder if my O's would be willing to commit to resigning him. They have the money to do this but would they be willing to spend the necessary amount, which I've heard will be at least $500 mil?

Other teams BA says are candidates: Rays (definitely cant afford him), Padres, Yankees, Giants and DBacks.

[harmon]

I would say Rangers but how much payroll can they realistically carry?

[Sour Masher]

Baltimore Orioles shock to world and pay up for a rental that can't possibly afford to sign! They have the guys to get it done and he could help them win a title. How often will they have a shot? It doesn't matter that they have no shot of resigning him. It is still worth it. If the win it all, the fans won't care they gave a top controllable guy like Kjerstad or even Cowser. If they don't, but make a good run, I doubt many are mad at them going for it and they still have lots of OF depth.

[Ken]

It's hard to imagine how this trade comes together. In order to save face the Angels would have to get an absolutely massive haul, much higher than typical market price for a 3 month rental.

[rhd]

Baltimore Orioles shock to world and pay up for a rental that can't possibly afford to sign! They have the guys to get it done and he could help them win a title. How often will they have a shot? It doesn't matter that they have no shot of resigning him. It is still worth it. If the win it all, the fans won't care they gave a top controllable guy like Kjerstad or even Cowser. If they don't, but make a good run, I doubt many are mad at them going for it and they still have lots of OF depth.

Oh, they have the money to sign him. The questions are: 1) will they pay what is necessary? and 2) is he willing to come or does he want to stay on the west coast?

[wannabegriffey]

It's hard to imagine how this trade comes together. In order to save face the Angels would have to get an absolutely massive haul, much higher than typical market price for a 3 month rental.

From memory, I can not recall any team acquiring a top hitter and a top starting pitcher at or near the trade deadline. Is Ohtani inside the top 15 mlb starting pitchers? top 15 mlb batters? I think the answer is yes.
If Anaheim does trade Ohtani, they absolutely should get more, much more, than the usual haul for a deadline deal.

And as you infer, the real question is who is willing to pay that price...

[Pauly]

I seriously doubt any trade happens without the stipulation that Ohtani will immediately sign an extension with the acquiring team, which pretty much eliminates everyone but the Dodgers.

[Sour Masher]

I seriously doubt any trade happens without the stipulation that Ohtani will immediately sign an extension with the acquiring team, which pretty much eliminates everyone but the Dodgers.

This may be true, but I think a case could be made that Ohtani is such a singular talent who improves a contender so much that it is justifiable to consider trading a lot of long term value for even a rental for his services. A team like Balt has the prospect depth to do this. Flags fly forever, as they say. On the flip side, I think Angel fans understand that getting a lot for Ohatani is better than getting nothing. Getting a very high quality bat like Cowser with years of control is a massive haul for a 3 month rental. But as much value as he represents, I think that it has to be considered because Ohtani is both one of the best bats and one of the best arms in baseball. He is a true difference maker that some teams will never have a shot at rostering outside of this small window when they are winning and have are real shot at a World Series Championship.

[Todd Zola]

FWIW -- every team in baseball can afford Ohtani. Most just hide behind the perceived small market mantra and choose not to.

[Ken]

FWIW -- every team in baseball can afford Ohtani. Most just hide behind the perceived small market mantra and choose not to.

I agree. I wonder what he's worth ONLY from a marketing standpoint?

[Sour Masher]

I agree. I wonder what he's worth ONLY from a marketing standpoint?

A lot, but if you don't build a winner around him, I very much doubt it is enough to justify the contract it would take to get him. Plus, there is no way he signs with a team that he is not confident will pay whatever it takes to build a full roster of winning players. He has experienced being the best player in baseball and not contending. I'm sure he wants to sign with a winner and some of the contenders this year probably would not be able to convince him of that. So, if you are one of those teams, do you not still put your hat in the ring and try to pay up for him as a rental, even if you have next to no shot of signing him long term? I think for a couple of teams at least, you have to try, and be willing to pay up to do so. I don't know if the Angels would even consider trading within the division, but if the Rangers could get him for Sebastian Walcott and a couple of spare parts, wouldn't you as a fan be good with that swap? Walcott may be a top 50 prospect to some already, but he is also very young and far away. But he also has the upside to be the centerpiece of an enticing return for the Angels.

[Gregg]

I agree. I wonder what he's worth ONLY from a marketing standpoint?

If I owned the Cubs I would make it clear that I am going to be the highest bidder when he hits free agency. That number would be 5% higher than the highest offer. I would not expect to get him but the fan base would come back in droves. If he takes it we will make it work...and make piles of money.

It can not be we made an offer and have it be 300m. Fans don't buy that. We have seen it or a variation on it in the past.

[Ken]

A lot, but if you don't build a winner around him, I very much doubt it is enough to justify the contract it would take to get him. Plus, there is no way he signs with a team that he is not confident will pay whatever it takes to build a full roster of winning players. He has experienced being the best player in baseball and not contending. I'm sure he wants to sign with a winner and some of the contenders this year probably would not be able to convince him of that. So, if you are one of those teams, do you not still put your hat in the ring and try to pay up for him as a rental, even if you have next to no shot of signing him long term? I think for a couple of teams at least, you have to try, and be willing to pay up to do so. I don't know if the Angels would even consider trading within the division, but if the Rangers could get him for Sebastian Walcott and a couple of spare parts, wouldn't you as a fan be good with that swap? Walcott may be a top 50 prospect to some already, but he is also very young and far away. But he also has the upside to be the centerpiece of an enticing return for the Angels.

Can't imagine the Angels trading away Ohtani for a guy like Walcott. Not splashy enough, they need to save face. He's very high upside but there's a good chance he doesn't reach that.

[Ken]

If I owned the Cubs I would make it clear that I am going to be the highest bidder when he hits free agency. That number would be 5% higher than the highest offer. I would not expect to get him but the fan base would come back in droves. If he takes it we will make it work...and make piles of money.

It can not be we made an offer and have it be 300m. Fans don't buy that. We have seen it or a variation on it in the past.

I'm not sure a Cubs bid would matter. Ohtani would not want to play for a rebuilding team. If he was going to sign for a team that's not contending he'd just stay with the Angels.

[The Feral Slasher]

Can't imagine the Angels trading away Ohtani for a guy like Walcott. Not splashy enough, they need to save face. He's very high upside but there's a good chance he doesn't reach that.

I sure hope MLB GM's are not so insecure as to worry about saving face, and understand contracts, player value and such.