Alek Manoah for Free?

[Sour Masher]

I've asked this a couple of times in the Blue Jays thread over the last few weeks, but the clock is ticking on an offer and I'm hoping a new post will get some responses. I've been offered Manoah from his owner for nothing initially, and now I am being offered William Contreras as an incentive to take him in a 14 team mixed league.

The problem is that this owner extended Manoah in the offseason to four years at $20. We can buy out a guy, but it costs us his full salary for one of his years and then half his salary for all remaining years. So, if he wanted to buy out Manoah, he'd have to pay $40. He obviously regrets extending Manoah for so long, and I know how many here feel about extending any pitcher, ever, but our league has tons of inflation, since we keep 15 major leaguers and 20 minor leaguers. Pitching is also a premium since it is a points league. So while it was a ballsy extension, it wasn't totally out of line given Manoah's track record before this year and his age and health at the time. We have pitchers going for over $50 in every auction.

I know it is incredibly risky to take him on, given his contract. But I can't help but remember how much I tried to give to get him last year to no avail and wonder if, as Warren Buffett advises, the time is now to buy, while there is blood in the streets, so to speak. I have no need for Contreras this year, as I have Realmuto and Sal Perez, but neither are keepers so Contreras would be a nice $5 keeper for next year. But really, it comes down to Manoah. Do you all think he figures it out at some point? I don't even mean just for this year, I mean by next year. Another factor of note is that while I am trying to win another title this year, rostering Manoah doesn't really hurt me even if he continues to suck this year. I have a massive lead over 2nd, I have great pitching already, and great back ups at every position. I'm set up well to win it all without or without Manoah. He will burn a roster spot, but we have 10 bench spots in this league, so it isn't that big of a deal.

So, should I take the deal, or pass? Another big factor is that my massive lead and depth this year is the result of me going all in on the repeat, so I'm depleted on keepers. That is pretty much the only reason I am trying to see light at the end of the tunnel on Manoah. It would be great to get a couple of free keepers after selling so much to win last year and this year.

[harmon]

If the buyout is out of pocket money then it seems like an easy yes. Contreras is a nice add for you and you get some time to see if Manoah has any promise for 2024.

[Sour Masher]

If the buyout is out of pocket money then it seems like an easy yes. Contreras is a nice add for you and you get some time to see if Manoah has any promise for 2024.

Ah, I should have clarified--The buy out is in auction dollars, not out of pocket. This would be a very dumb trade for me to make if the right move ends up being buying Manoah out. Doing so would massively hurt my chances next year. If, however, there is a good chance Manoah should not be bought out and would earn his salary, than I think it is the right move for me. If you had to guess now, would you bet on Manoah getting back to being at least fairly good by the end of the year or early next year?

[Sour Masher]

No opinions? I expected a chorus of folks telling me I am crazy to consider taking on a four year Manoah contract. Maybe your silence suggest collective ambivalence?!

I've read as much as I can on him, and it is clear, no one really knows the problem. Some focus on his weight and believe he did not put in the work in the offseason to adapt to the new, quicker pace between pitches. He is getting gassed. But that does not tell the whole story. Some focus on his sinker or his slider, or how both used to looks so similar it fooled hitters and now they don't. Some suggest he got cocky and the game is humbling him now, but that he should be able to work hard in the offseason to adjust to how batters have adjusted to him, but it is unlikely he can fix things in-season. Some think he is toast forever. Most seem happy about his struggles, because they don't like his cockiness. Some loved how cocky he is and him being mic'ed for the AS game last year was a treat.

I feel like this is a challenge trade. If I can figure out if Manaoh will figure it out, it could be a great get for me. If he can string together a few good starts to end the year, at the very least, I should be able to give him away for free to someone, and I'd net William Contreras for free. On the other hand, if no progress is made, he would be untradable and I'd have to spend $20 on essentially a dead roster spot or spend way more to buy him out.

[harmon]

Ok, with auction dollars at stake it's not worth the risk. As you say the penalty would be crippling and long lasting.

I guess the only way to take this on would be if you could come somewhat close to picking up enough value in more sweeteners like Contreras. At $5 Contreras makes up some of the $20 buyout risk for next year but you'd need at least one more solid contract to give it more serious thought.

[Sour Masher]

Ok, with auction dollars at stake it's not worth the risk. As you say the penalty would be crippling and long lasting.

I guess the only way to take this on would be if you could come somewhat close to picking up enough value in more sweeteners like Contreras. At $5 Contreras makes up some of the $20 buyout risk for next year but you'd need at least one more solid contract to give it more serious thought.

Yeah, you are probably right (buying him out at $40 would be a big blow to my team next year). I tried to get more, but he is not yet ready to give more. Maybe if he has some more bad outtings, he'd step up and offer more to take him, but I know a couple of other owners are tempted and if he does have a good outing or two, I think he will end up moving him to someone, but it probably wont't be me at that point.

[Sour Masher]

Any other thoughts on Manoah for the ROS, next year, and beyond? I can't think of too many cases where a young, healthy pitcher who was a top 3 CY Young vote getter the year before totally fell apart the next year without an injury.

If you had to rank him now for next year, would Manaoh be a top 50 sp?

[The Feral Slasher]

No opinions? I expected a chorus of folks telling me I am crazy to consider taking on a four year Manoah contract. Maybe your silence suggest collective ambivalence?!

I've read as much as I can on him, and it is clear, no one really knows the problem. Some focus on his weight and believe he did not put in the work in the offseason to adapt to the new, quicker pace between pitches. He is getting gassed. But that does not tell the whole story. Some focus on his sinker or his slider, or how both used to looks so similar it fooled hitters and now they don't. Some suggest he got cocky and the game is humbling him now, but that he should be able to work hard in the offseason to adjust to how batters have adjusted to him, but it is unlikely he can fix things in-season. Some think he is toast forever. Most seem happy about his struggles, because they don't like his cockiness. Some loved how cocky he is and him being mic'ed for the AS game last year was a treat.

I feel like this is a challenge trade. If I can figure out if Manaoh will figure it out, it could be a great get for me. If he can string together a few good starts to end the year, at the very least, I should be able to give him away for free to someone, and I'd net William Contreras for free. On the other hand, if no progress is made, he would be untradable and I'd have to spend $20 on essentially a dead roster spot or spend way more to buy him out.

You are crazy to consider taking on manoah and his guaranteed contract. You seem to compete very well without him, he is best left to a crappy team that needs a high risk, medium reward giy

[Sour Masher]

You are crazy to consider taking on manoah and his guaranteed contract. You seem to compete very well without him, he is best left to a crappy team that needs a high risk, medium reward giy

By high risk, do you mean you think there is a high risk he not only doesn't get right for this year, but beyond? I don't really need him this year, but I'm trying to remember someone as good as he was at his age totally fall off without an injury and never getting good again. I know he wasn't as good as he era and whip suggested last year and he may never be that good again, but so many of the things wrong with him right now seem fixable to me. Nick Pollack did a wonderful breakdown of his "good" game against the Tigers and totally nailed that it was a mirage, but a lot of what he highlighted was bad decisions and bad pitch calling. Yes, all of his pitchers were a little off too, but half of it was bad pitching decisions. I feel like Manoah ends up being a top 40 pitcher again next year and beyond, but it is a huge risk to take him on when he is broken in some many ways right now.

Someone with a long memory or knows how to look this up--are there many historical precedents for a guy in his mid-20s to go from ace-level production to total cannon fodder long term without an injury being the turning point? It just seems so unlikely that with his age and proven potential, he doesn't put the work in the offseason and come back as at least a 75% type version of his 2022 season--the mid 3s era his FIP suggested he should have had, a sub 1.3 whip, close to a k per IP, with the ability to get up to close to 200 IP. I know history is no real indicator of what will happen to Manoah, but the only example I can think of a great pitcher that totally collapsed in his mid 20s is Dontrelle Willis, but his mechanics were always so unusual, I'm not sure he is a good comp for Manoah. But he is the only guy I can think of that started sucking right after bein great and then still sucking.

[The Feral Slasher]

By high risk, do you mean you think there is a high risk he not only doesn't get right for this year, but beyond? I don't really need him this year, but I'm trying to remember someone as good as he was at his age totally fall off without an injury and never getting good again. I know he wasn't as good as he era and whip suggested last year and he may never be that good again, but so many of the things wrong with him right now seem fixable to me. Nick Pollack did a wonderful breakdown of his "good" game against the Tigers and totally nailed that it was a mirage, but a lot of what he highlighted was bad decisions and bad pitch calling. Yes, all of his pitchers were a little off too, but half of it was bad pitching decisions. I feel like Manoah ends up being a top 40 pitcher again next year and beyond, but it is a huge risk to take him on when he is broken in some many ways right now.

Someone with a long memory or knows how to look this up--are there many historical precedents for a guy in his mid-20s to go from ace-level production to total cannon fodder long term without an injury being the turning point? It just seems so unlikely that with his age and proven potential, he doesn't put the work in the offseason and come back as at least a 75% type version of his 2022 season--the mid 3s era his FIP suggested he should have had, a sub 1.3 whip, close to a k per IP, with the ability to get up to close to 200 IP. I know history is no real indicator of what will happen to Manoah, but the only example I can think of a great pitcher that totally collapsed in his mid 20s is Dontrelle Willis.

I would be worried that he never returns to the level he was, or possibly not even close to that.

[Sour Masher]

I would be worried that he never returns to the level he was, or possibly not even close to that.

Yeah, it seems possible, but it seems very unusual to just lose it and never get it back. But as I type that, I just remembered Rick Ankiel. He was a lot younger, but he showed in the majors for a full season at age 20 and then suddenly just totally lost it. He and Willis seemed to have been affected by anxiety whereas Manoah seems confident maybe to a fault. I'm sure there are other examples of guys just falling off young and healthy after showing ace-level production, but it seems pretty rare.

[Sour Masher]

Annd, Matt Harvey just came to mind. Maybe it isn't as rare as I first thought.

[revo]

You are crazy to consider taking on manoah and his guaranteed contract. You seem to compete very well without him, he is best left to a crappy team that needs a high risk, medium reward giy

Agreed. No F'ing way would I take the risk this guy ruins three future seasons. Easy pass. Let this guy choke on him. He would need to include far more than William Contreras for you to take him on.

[Sour Masher]

Agreed. No F'ing way would I take this risk this guy ruins three future seasons. Easy pass. Let this guy choke on him. He would need to include far more than William Contreras for you to take him on.

I'd buy him out after next season if he sucks, and I think I win this year with him on my bench or not, but I get the point. It is a big risk. Part of my struggle is that I think I could flip him for nothing if he has a good start in Seattle, thus getting Contreras for free. There are some other owners on the fence like I am and I think if I pull the trigger FOMO will set in for one guy in particular. But a lot would be riding on that one start. If it goes bad, I could see him losing his job to Ryu or via trade and not getting any more chances after the trade deadline to show better than he has.

[Teenwolf]

I own Manoah in dynasty, and I'm fortunate enough that I've been able to keep him benched all year and still up 20 pts (kind of like your situation). I think he probably sees some kind of improvement next year, but I wouldn't bet on it. Very different situation to take on a 3 year commitment at $20 per.

Think of another hypothetical... say Manoah gets blasted the rest of the year, nobody in your league takes him, and he gets dropped.... do you really think he'd go for much more than $20 on a fresh contract? Even if he looked great in spring, a reclamation guy won't fetch that much. How much did Jose Berrios go for this year in that league? I doubt it was over $20, and even if you have to pay $25, better to pay the extra $5 for a fresh contract. Especially on a pitcher! So much risk any pitcher breaks.

I see Manoah's main issues being things that need a full offseason of work to iron out. Especially with the run environment going crazy in the hot weather, I'd stay away for ROS.