RHD's Latest Top 150 Roto Prospects ("Mid-Season" Edition)

[rhd]

The MLB amateur draft is tomorrow so I wanted to post an updated list before then. Previous list was from 3/30/23.

I dont remember a prospect list I've done where there seems to be so little premium talent. This is mainly because of graduations but also because of so many disappointing performances from players that previously were ranked highly. Consequently, there are 51 new names on the list, which I'm sure is a record. It will be interesting to see FanGraphs' mid-season update as they have only 88 "prospect-eligible" players currently rated w a future value of at least 50, which is their threshold for inclusion on their list. And at least 3 more should lose eligibility in the next couple weeks. They have 8 draftees rated at a 50 FV or above so those will be added but that still would total only around 93 players. They've never had less than 100 players on their list.

This year's draft is supposed to be one of the best collections of top talent in years. So I probably should have included more draftees on this list than usual (usually around 10-12). But I still have only 11 (not counting 3 that arent eligible until next year), I guess because it's just so hard to rank them. But many of the ones I did include are much higher than usual. Crews is at no. 3 and I'm sure I've never ranked a draftee that high. And I'm even more sure that I've never had 3 draftees in the top 10 or 5 in the top 15.

The usual litany: I generally follow BA's prospect eligibility requirements, which are <=130 MLB AB or <=50 MLB IP. Unlike BA tho, amateurs, unsigned draftees and foreign players are eligible. Also, while BA has a different IP limit for relievers (30 IP?), relievers are eligible as long as they dont have >50 IP. As usual, this is for roto, not 'real' baseball, so pitchers are downgraded some, catchers downgraded somewhat (unless they're elite prospects and their bat will play at any position), actual closers are upgraded a lot, SB guys who project to get playing time get upgraded some, and guys who either currently are or project to soon be regulars can get upgraded quite a bit. Position listed is their current primary one to the best of my knowledge (correct me if I'm wrong), not the one they're likely to end up at.

Rank Name Pos Org Rnk +/-
1 Elly De La Cruz SS Cin 5 4
2 Jackson Holliday SS Bal 7 5
3 Dylan Crews OF College 8 5
4 Jackson Chourio OF Mil 6 2
5 Jordan Lawlar SS Ari 9 4
6 James Wood OF Was 13 7
7 Wyatt Langford OF College 37 30
8 Paul Skenes SP College 44 36
9 Junior Caminero 3B TB 91 82
10 Marcelo Mayer SS Bos 11 1
11 Pete Crow-Armstrong OF CHC 19 8
12 Walker Jenkins OF HS 53 41
13 Max Clark OF HS 52 39
14 Colton Cowser OF Bal 47 33
15 Evan Carter OF Tex 36 21
16 Colt Keith 3B Det NR NA
17 Sal Frelick OF Mil 24 7
18 Masyn Winn SS StL 28 10
19 Jasson Dominguez OF NYY 30 11
20 Andrew Abbott SP Cin NR NA
21 Gavin Williams SP Cle 42 21
22 Bobby Miller SP LAD 43 21
23 Grayson Rodriguez SP Bal 15 -8
24 Ricky Tiedemann SP Tor 40 16
25 Druw (Andruw) Jones OF Ari 12 -13
26 Oswald Peraza SS NYY 50 24
27 Luis Matos OF SF 118 91
28 Jordan Westburg SS Bal 93 65
29 Noelvi Marte 3B Cin 29 0
30 Kyle Manzardo 1B TB 58 28
31 Termarr Johnson 2B Pit 22 -9
32 Jonatan Clase OF Sea NR NA
33 Adael Amador SS Col 51 18
34 Brooks Lee SS Min 49 15
35 Andrew Painter SP Phi 14 -21
36 Kyle Harrison SP SF 27 -9
37 Carson Williams SS TB 106 69
38 Brayan Rocchio SS Cle 64 26
39 Jackson Merrill SS SD 23 -16
40 Jacob Wilson SS College 66 26
41 Chase Dollander SP College 45 4
42 Jung-Hoo Lee OF Korea 70 28
43 Yoshinobu Yamamoto SP Japan 72 29
44 Roki Sasaki SP Japan 73 29
45 Emmett Sheehan SP LAD NR NA
46 Bryan Woo SP Sea NR NA
47 Christian Encarnacion-Strand 3B Cin 96 49
48 Coby Mayo 3B Bal 114 66
49 Ronny Mauricio SS NYM 108 59
50 Luisangel (Jose) Acuna SS Tex 57 7
51 Colson Montgomery SS CHW 86 35
52 Edouard (Eddie) Julien 2B Min 90 38
53 Tyler Soderstrom 1B Oak 78 25
54 Nick Yorke 2B Bos 115 61
55 Brady House 3B Was 117 62
56 Emmanuel Rodriguez OF Min 48 -8
57 Justin Crawford OF Phi NR NA
58 Marco Luciano SS SF 38 -20
59 Curtis Mead 3B TB 33 -26
60 Shane Baz SP TB 68 8
61 Cole Young SS Sea NR NA
62 Ceddanne Rafaela OF Bos 89 27
63 Heston Kjerstad OF Bal NR NA
64 Yanquiel Fernandez OF Col NR NA
65 Tyler Black 2B Mil NR NA
66 Carlos Jorge SS Cin NR NA
67 Enrique Bradfield OF College 65 -2
68 Rhett Lowder SP College NR NA
69 Jacob Gonzalez SS College 54 -15
70 Nick Gonzales 2B Pit NR NA
71 Brandon Pfaadt SP Ari 74 3
72 Cameron Collier 3B Cin 60 -12
73 Robert Hassell OF Was 39 -34
74 Elijah Green OF Was 21 -53
75 Edwin Arroyo SS Cin 63 -12
76 Mick Abel SP Phi 75 -1
77 A.J. Smith-Shawver SP Atl NR NA
78 Ben Brown SP CHC NR NA
79 Quinn Priester SP Pit 126 47
80 Connor Phillips SP Cin NR NA
81 Gavin Stone SP LAD 76 -5
82 Owen White SP Tex 110 28
83 Mark Vientos 1B NYM 143 60
84 Matt Mervis 1B CHC 97 13
85 Michael Busch 2B LAD 94 9
86 Gabriel Gonzalez OF Sea NR NA
87 Sterlin Thompson 3B Col NR NA
88 Jordan Beck OF Col NR NA
89 Roman Anthony OF Bos NR NA
90 Spencer Jones OF NYY 99 9
91 Drew Gilbert OF Hou NR NA
92 Tink (Markevian) Hence SP StL 87 -5
93 Jacob Misiorowski SP Mil NR NA
94 Connor Norby 2B Bal 102 8
95 Jonathan Aranda 2B TB 105 10
96 Zack Gelof 2B Oak 144 48
97 George Valera OF Cle 62 -35
98 Harry Ford C Sea 136 38
99 Wilmer Flores SP Det 127 28
100 Everson Pereira OF NYY 109 9
101 Chase DeLauter OF Cle 101 0
102 Miguel Bleis OF Bos 84 -18
103 Jett (J.T.) Williams SS NYM 92 -11
104 Johan Rojas OF Phi NR NA
105 Chase Petty SP Cin NR NA
106 Gordon Graceffo SP StL 125 19
107 Dylan Lesko SP SD 128 21
108 Brock Porter SP Tex NR NA
109 Osleivis Basabe 3B TB NR NA
110 Robby Snelling SP SD NR NA
111 Cade Horton SP CHC NR NA
112 Luis Lara OF Mil NR NA
113 Ryan Clifford OF Hou NR NA
114 Jared Jones SP Pit NR NA
115 Anthony Solometo SP Pit NR NA
116 Ty Madden SP Det NR NA
117 Chase Hampton SP NYY NR NA
118 Frank Mozzicato SP KC NR NA
119 Henry Davis C Pit NR NA
120 Logan O'Hoppe C LAA 141 21
121 Endy Rodriguez C Pit 77 -44
122 Ethan Salas C SD NR NA
123 Jeferson Quero C Mil NR NA
124 Dalton Rushing C LAD NR NA
125 Diego Cartaya C LAD 79 -46
126 Justin Foscue 2B Tex NR NA
127 Carson Whisenhunt SP SF NR NA
128 Orelvis Martinez 3B Tor 116 -12
129 Owen Caissie OF CHC NR NA
130 Nelson Rada OF LAA NR NA
131 Ignacio Alvarez 3B Atl NR NA
132 Blaze Jordan 3B Bos NR NA
133 Tyler Locklear 1B Sea NR NA
134 Jarlin Susana SP Was NR NA
135 Jack Leiter SP Tex 111 -24
136 Samuel Zavala OF SD 134 -2
137 Alexander Ramirez OF NYM 98 -39
138 Kevin Alcantara OF CHC 85 -53
139 Bo (Noah) Naylor C Cle 104 -35
140 Garrett Mitchell OF Mil 80 -60
141 Zac Veen OF Col 18 -123
142 Daniel Espino SP Cle 67 -75
143 Andy Pages OF LAD 107 -36
144 Mason Miller SP Oak NR NA
145 Ryan Pepiot SP LAD 148 3
146 Noble Meyer SP HS NR NA
147 J.J. Wetherholt 2B College NR NA
148 Nick Kurtz 1B College NR NA
149 Vance Honeycutt OF College 100 -49
150 Munetaka Murakami 3B Japan 71 -79

Removed because of ineligibility (31):
C Carroll, G Henderson, J Walker, A Volpe, E Tovar, E Perez, M Vargas, T Casas, R Lewis, E Ruiz, Jo Jung, B Baty, K Senga, H Brown, T Bradley, F Alvarez, J Wiemer, Z Neto, M Yoshida, B Turang, S Steer, D Hall, T Bibee, G Moreno, H Wesneski, K Muller, K Waldichuk, R Nelson, J Outman, D Jameson, L Ortiz

Eligibles dropped off (20):
B Davis (#55) , G Cross (#61), O Colas (#82), Ja Jung (#103), A Canario (#113), M Auer (#129), B Ramos (#130), D De Los Santos (#131), J Salas (#132), A Zavala (#133), A Gutierrez (#135), J Berry (#137), A Martinez (#138), T Gentry (#139), W Bernabel (#140), G McCray (#145), A Barger (#146), J Ortiz (#147), M Montgomery (#149), B Taylor (#150)

As always, comments are not only welcome but encouraged. Enjoy!

[whalewang]

@RDH Thanks for putting the latest list together!
Why did Jackson Merrill get such a big ding vs the last list?

[DJRadar]

Three guys who made a big jump: Colt Keith, Luis Matos, and Jonatan Clase. All are unowned in my 6x6 keeper. Why the giant jump for all 3? ETAs?

[madducks]

I would love to see the Pirates take Crews with the first pick in the MLB draft tonight. Or even Skenes. But they will probably go with the safe (cheaper) pick and take Langford.

[rhd]

@RDH Thanks for putting the latest list together!
Why did Jackson Merrill get such a big ding vs the last list?

Thanx for the response, whalewhang.

Merrill's place on the list is mainly influenced by the major prospect sites' very high rankings of him. This year, his performance still is about as solid as it was in the past but I just have reevaluated his value in roto. His stats, altho solid, do not stand out. MLB.com rates his speed at 50 and power at 55. Just seems like a solid player across the board but not elite for roto purposes. Elite level to me means that you're in the top 25-35 prospects so I think he belongs just outside of that rt now. But he already has 10 HR and SB so I might have him too low now.

[rhd]

I would love to see the Pirates take Crews with the first pick in the MLB draft tonight. Or even Skenes. But they will probably go with the safe (cheaper) pick and take Langford.

Some industry folks like Langford even more than Crews. And I've heard some buzz that the Pirates might take Skenes. It's like you cant go wrong w any of them.

[rhd]

Three guys who made a big jump: Colt Keith, Luis Matos, and Jonatan Clase. All are unowned in my 6x6 keeper. Why the giant jump for all 3? ETAs?

Thanx for the response, DJRadar.

Keith is really having a breakout season. He's no. 25 on BA's list and no. 40 on MLB's and the stats are excellent and when those 2 factors line up w each other I am very interested as a roto owner. He maybe would not normally be quite this high if not for the sparse prospect talent that we have now.

Matos is really having a bounceback year and already has made the jump to MLB. Not doing anything special so far in the bigs but I had him about this high before his struggles last year, which apparently were at least partly caused by injury, and he's completely resurrected his prospect status.

Clase's ranking is partly because of me giving into my weakness for legit prospects that have massive SB potential. And because he's also displaying a lot of power, altho MLB.com grades his power as only 45. But the speed is legit. I probably have him too high but the SBs are just so tantalizing. He's another one that I consider just outside the elite range for roto.

[Sour Masher]

Thanks for posting, rhd. A couple of guys not listed I would like thoughts on:

Where do you have Joenry Vargas? I know he is only in rookie ball, but I was surprised to see you rank Ethan Salas given your general discounting of catchers, and how young he is (although, I know how much buzz he has as an incredibly polished 17 year old). Still, given your feeling about catchers, which I generally share, I was surprised to see him on the list and not Vargas, who is having a much better offensive year so far and was highly touted in his own right, and most importantly, not a catcher .

Ryan Bliss is also having a great year. How close was he to making your top 150?

[Sour Masher]

On the flip side, could you give some insights on why Osleivis Basabe is on the list? His stats don't stand out to me, so I'm assuming there are good reports scouting wise.

[madducks]

Some industry folks like Langford even more than Crews. And I've heard some buzz that the Pirates might take Skenes. It's like you cant go wrong w any of them.

The Pirates surprised me and took Skenes. Some people think that he's the best pitching prospect since Strasburg. I hope they are right. I also hope they can sign him. That's never a guarantee with the Pirates.

[Sour Masher]

The Pirates surprised me and took Skenes. Some people think that he's the best pitching prospect since Strasburg. I hope they are right. I also hope they can sign him. That's never a guarantee with the Pirates.

The consensus seems to be that this was the right pick, despite the data suggesting it is not. I don't entirely buy the argument, but the justification is this is the only way an organization like the Pirates can land a true potential ace like Skenes. I understand that perspective, but the bust rate for pitchers is so high, I still would have gone with Crews, or maybe Langford or Clark. Still, they say Skenes is right there with Prior and Strasburg. They both showed the evaluators were right on the talent before injuries did them in. The potential for a Verlander or Scherzer, that is, a durable ace, is a franchise changing type of player. It's a gamble, but the pay off could be huge.

[Flyman]

Wow, I'm an LSU fan, and I think Crews at no3 is way way way too high. Imho, those top 5 draftees are too high. I'd like to hear the thought process that went into putting them so high, if I may.

[rhd]

Thanks for posting, rhd. A couple of guys not listed I would like thoughts on:

Where do you have Joenry Vargas? I know he is only in rookie ball, but I was surprised to see you rank Ethan Salas given your general discounting of catchers, and how young he is (although, I know how much buzz he has as an incredibly polished 17 year old). Still, given your feeling about catchers, which I generally share, I was surprised to see him on the list and not Vargas, who is having a much better offensive year so far and was highly touted in his own right, and most importantly, not a catcher .

Ryan Bliss is also having a great year. How close was he to making your top 150?

Thanx for the response, SM.

I'm not a scout so all I can do is scout the statline and read reports from actual scouts. There are lots of guys that have great minor league stats and those guys get my attention but before I feel confident about adding a player to my top 150 list I like to get confirmation from scouting reports that he actually is a bona fide good prospect. Vargas was not even included in BA's mid-season Dodgers' top 30 prospects. MLB does have him ranked no. 21 on their Dodgers' list. Their report says he has good power and bat speed and is an average runner and good defender. They put a 45 FV on him. FG does not list him in their list of 51 Dodgers prospects. The fact that he's very young may account for why BA and FG havent paid him much attention yet but even going by MLB's report he's only a mid-range prospect now. He's much farther down my list.

I have Bliss higher but not that near the top 150. BA gives him a FV of 45/Hi Risk and MLB and FG give him a 40 FV. He hit so badly last year that he didnt make BA's preseason DBacks top 30. They do have him at no. 16 on their midseason top 30, saying he went back to the hitting approach that he had success w last year. Last year's report says he could turn into an above-average regular if he continues to display power. I do like Bliss' stats but he also seems like more of a mid-range prospect at this point.

Salas OTOH is already a scout's darling even as young as he and is more or less holding his own as I'm sure the youngest player in full-season ball. He's already in the top 50 overall prospects for BA, MLB and FG. BA's report said that he has a case for the best hitter in his international signing class and that as a hitter his profile would be good for even a corner OFer. So not strictly a top prospect based only on his defensive potential. I felt like he deserved to ranked w the other top prospect catchers on my list.

[rhd]

On the flip side, could you give some insights on why Osleivis Basabe is on the list? His stats don't stand out to me, so I'm assuming there are good reports scouting wise.

Yes, Basabe appears well-regarded by the scouts and is having a solid, if unspectacular year at AAA. Both BA and MLB give him a 50 FV and he already is on BA's current top 100. BA's report says he projects as a plus hitter w below avg power and has a hi baseball IQ and also indicates above-avg speed.

[rhd]

Wow, I'm an LSU fan, and I think Crews at no3 is way way way too high. Imho, those top 5 draftees are too high. I'd like to hear the thought process that went into putting them so high, if I may.

Thanx for the response, Flyman. Congrats on the CWS championship.

In the initial post to this thread, I said that I dont recall a list that had so little premium talent. That's part of the reason, but maybe not the most important part. I listened to a BA podcast in April where they said that they'd rank Crews in their top 5 MLB prospects if eligible, and that was when Carroll, Henderson, Volpe and Francisco Alvarez were still eligible. They specifically said they'd rank him above Holliday. On their current list they have only De La Cruz ranked above Holliday so this would suggest that if they put Crews on their list now they might rank him even higher than I have him. And they said they'd rank Skenes along w the 3 best pitching prospects at the time, which were Eury Perez, Grayson and Painter. Perez has since graduated, GRayson really struggled in MLB and Painter is still hurt and doesnt really have a return timetable now. So they might rank SKenes as the no. 1 pitcher (as I have) once he is considered eligible. Some experts like Langford even more than Crews and on another recent BA podcast they said Max Clark might have the highest upside of any hitter since Josh Hamilton. And many experts like Jenkins even more than Clark. So it's not just me ranking these guys this high, it seems to be the industry. It will be interesting where they will be ranked once they're considered eligible.