Auction is this weekend - need advice

[cleo]

Our longtime 12 team AL only league is having our draft/auction tomorrow. Over the past 5-7 years we have had 3 new owners come in and have caused higher inflation than in the past. There are 2 specific owners that target top players and overbid by $5 - $10 to get them.

My plan in the past was to not overpay and be patient for the bargains. I also like the spread the wealth option as well where I would rather have 2 $25 players than a $50 and a $1. But I think I need to change it up this year. The last few seasons I end up with a few bargains where i purchased a $15 player for $3, but then I also end up with chasing saves or the last good SP and overpay. I wasted $22 last year on Josh Staumont for $9, Hector Neris for $3 and Emilo Pagan for $10 when I should have just spent $25 on a solid closer.

Our keeper lists were turned in on Wednesday and here are the keepers over $30 to give you an idea on what to expect as far as inflation. I only keep players that are obvious good prices and throw back any player that I think I could get back for the same price or a little more. But this year is by far the worst as far as the high prices of players being kept.

Players	Salary
Jose Ramirez 3B | CLE	$ 47
Mike Trout OF | LAA	$ 43
Gerrit Cole P | NYY	$ 42
Corey Seager SS | TEX	$ 37
Luis Castillo P | SEA	$ 36
Randy Arozarena OF | TB	$ 33
Cedric Mullins OF | BAL	$ 32
Marcus Semien 2B | TEX	$ 31

Anyone else have a similar league or issue? Do you have any thoughts on how I should approach this year? Keep the same be patient style, or should I get in there spend $40+ on a few top available players? I have a very good keeper list going into this year, so I think I have a good chance to finish in the top 3.

thanks for any input or advice.

[Gregg]

How many keepers do you get and how many do you have. If we can say we have a good keeper list that should mean we have some high production below market value and maybe a couple at market value. I would go after the best players available that I have spots for and get as many counting stats as I could. I would pay the extra dollar.

All of the players you listed above are kept in our AL only and are within a plus or minus a buck or two. Except for Cole who I threw back at $53. I expect to get him back for about what you listed.

[cleo]

You can protect up to 15 keepers (of a total roster of 23 players max). I am going into the draft with the following players:
(the contracts of Bieber, Ohtani and Romano will expire this season and I can't extend them)... Also Shohei can be used as a P or DH, but we have weekly moves, so I can only use him as one or the other each week

Batters
	Pos	Players	Contract	Real Salary
	1B	Josh Naylor 1B | CLE	24	13
	OF	Julio Rodriguez OF | SEA	24	10
Pitchers
	Pos	Players	Contract	Real Salary
	P	Shane Bieber P | CLE	C23	24
	P	Shohei Ohtani DH,P | LAA	C23	12
	P	Jordan Romano P | TOR	C23	6
	P	Brady Singer P | KC	24	1

[Ken]

Interesting - players being kept at high prices actually reduces inflation.

Have you run the projected inflation numbers yourself?

There are 2 scenarios possible here:

Either one - those owners are running projected inflation and because inflation is high they are correctly choosing to keep more expensive players (in a high inflation environment you are better off keeping $).

Or two - those owners don't know inflation and are incorrect, and are driving down inflation.

Without seeing a bunch of the low $ guys that are actually driving inflation it is difficult to say which is the real scenario here.

[The Feral Slasher]

You can protect up to 15 keepers (of a total roster of 23 players max). I am going into the draft with the following players:
(the contracts of Bieber, Ohtani and Romano will expire this season and I can't extend them)... Also Shohei can be used as a P or DH, but we have weekly moves, so I can only use him as one or the other each week

Batters
	Pos	Players	Contract	Real Salary
	1B	Josh Naylor 1B | CLE	24	13
	OF	Julio Rodriguez OF | SEA	24	10
Pitchers
	Pos	Players	Contract	Real Salary
	P	Shane Bieber P | CLE	C23	24
	P	Shohei Ohtani DH,P | LAA	C23	12
	P	Jordan Romano P | TOR	C23	6
	P	Brady Singer P | KC	24	1

If teams can keep up to 15 guys and you are keeping only 6 I suspect you probably don't have one of the best keeper lists. Hard to say without looking at everyone's list.

If that is the case I'd look to grab some injury stash guys if you can get them at good prices (hoskins, altuve, harper, buehler, diaz, etc. there are a ton of them this year). I'd likely focus on 2024 if this were my keeper list and just search for bargains wherever they come, hi or low priced. Focus on grabbing keepers for 2024.

[Sharky]

Cleo I’m in an AL only 5x5 keeper league and prices at auction were in line with those you posted. At auction.

So it’s difficult to advise you based on just this info. As Ken correctly notes, if there are low priced keepers (vs value) that will drive inflation. If all keepers look like this however, there is probably very little inflation - though you may struggle to land a star without paying up like this. Can you share more info?