2k13: Homer Bailey

[joncarlos]

Bailey finally had his breakout season in 2012, throwing 208 innings and posting a 13-10, 3.68 mark for the Reds. That included 168 Ks and a 1.24 WHIP, making him worth about $15 in an NL-only league. His peripherals were pretty good, too: 3.97 FIP, 3.94 xFIP, 7.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9. (That K9 and BB9 pretty much mirrors what he did in 130 innings in 2011).

His GB% went from 39.5% to 44.9% which is nice given his home park. He cut 2 points off his LD% and earned a slight drop in BABIP to .290.

Bailey had a 6.6 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in the first half, then jumped to 8.0 and 2.1 in the second half, so if you believe in splits, there could be some growth here.

The Reds aren't exactly a stellar defensive team with Frazier at 3B, Choo in CF and Cozart at SS. But they should be a pretty good offensive team, which will help Bailey's win total.

I'm not sure I see the full amount of growth that his second half K/BB implies, but I do think we'll see a little. 15 wins, 200 innings, 1.22 WHIP, 170 Ks, 3.50 ERA... that has a lot of value.

[pjs24]

My detailed thoughts here in a guest post for SBNation - http://www.faketeams.com/2013/1/11/3...ng-his-promise

[Erik]

"Implosion Starts" sounds like it could be a very useful metric for fantasy purposes.

[DMT]

"Implosion Starts" sounds like it could be a very useful metric for fantasy purposes.

Shandler has a DISASTER metric that is very useful.

[Don Quixote]

Bailey's first half last year was down a little from his previous three years, while the second half was way out of line with that period. Breakthrough, or fluke/sample size?

One good thing for him is that the fans finally got over his not being the team savior that he was billed as being when he first came up years ago. Perhaps he finally relaxed.

I believe that the "real" Homer Bailey is not that of the second half of 2012, but that he's made some progress from his pedestrian 2009-10-11. Don't be surprised if his progress carries over, but don't pay for a full season of it, either.