2k13: Allen "The Wrench" Craig

[joncarlos]

I figured I'd put up a thread for Paul's favorite player. Here's a guy who Paul has picked in the 2nd round of a mock draft before.

2012 stats: 514 PA, 307/354/522, 22 HR, 92 RBI, 76 R, 2 SB.
Behind the numbers: 7.2% walk rate, 17.3% K rate, .334 BABIP. Very nice 22.7% LD rate, 44% ground balls, 33.3% fly balls. 17.1% HR/FB rate, pretty consistent with his 2011 numbers.

The issue for Craig is health. If you project his 514 PA out to 640 PA, you get .307-27-115-95r-2sb. Those still don't look like second round numbers to me, so you need to project some growth as well.

First half: 176 AB, .313-13hr-44rbi.
Second half: 292ab, .304-9hr-48rbi

I like Craig a lot, but I wouldn't go crazy. He split his time in the lineup between 2nd, 4th and 5th. He could hit 2nd this year (behind either Jay or Furcal) with Holliday, Beltran, Molina in the 3-4-5 spots.

For me, I'm comfortable with 580 AB, .297-25-85-97r-5sb.

[DJBeasties]

I love Allen Craig. He helped me win two leagues last year and annoy the crap out of a lot of my friends since I found another gem and he was eligible at 2B in Yahoo for '12. I do think however that the 2nd round is pretty, pretty bold. Then again, everything I do is auction so I forget how an approx. $25 player grades out round-wise. Todd Zola posted it here once for me but I forget which thread it was.

He's a 1B/OF with over 6.00 RC/G, a good lineup, good power with a healthy HR/F, slightly below average EYE, good lineup spot, spotty health and consistency, late bloomer, 35% FB rate with a great LD rate.

I would peg him under 25 homeruns but with a close to .300 BA and 100 RBI if he can keep himself healthy.

[BigJonEmpire]

Just for the fun of it in full seasons of approx 600-700 plate appearances (quick math version)

In 2010 - 20-25 homer pace

In 2011 - 33-38 homer pace

In 2012 - 28-33 homer pace

[pjs24]

JC, the projection your comfortable with was reached or exceeded by 4 players last year and just 13 total instances the last two years spread among 10 players (Cano, Miggy, and Braun 2x) so I think it's more than reasonable to take him in the 2nd round of that 15-team NFBC league like I did since he likely wouldn't have gotten back to me in the late-3rd. And I've taken him in the 3rd round of three other mocks.

His 162-game average the last two years is .309-92-28-111 and 6 SBs just for good measure. That's why I think health alone makes him worthy of such high regard as opposed to needing health AND skill improvement.

I would also note that simply repeating 2012 wouldn't be problematic at all. Only Miggy and Braun have reached or exceeded his .307-76-22-92 line each of the last two years while 12 others, including Craig of course, have hit the thresholds once.

Unfortunately, I'm such an incredible pioneer that Craig's ADP is now 38th over at MDC through 89 qualifying drafts. At least a couple of these leagues where I got him are going to be played out.

Also, LOL at "The Sporer"!!

[joncarlos]

JC, the projection your comfortable with was reached or exceeded by 4 players last year and just 13 total instances the last two years spread among 10 players (Cano, Miggy, and Braun 2x) so I think it's more than reasonable to take him in the 2nd round of that 15-team NFBC league like I did since he likely wouldn't have gotten back to me in the late-3rd. And I've taken him in the 3rd round of three other mocks.

His 162-game average the last two years is .309-92-28-111 and 6 SBs just for good measure. That's why I think health alone makes him worthy of such high regard as opposed to needing health AND skill improvement.

I would also note that simply repeating 2012 wouldn't be problematic at all. Only Miggy and Braun have reached or exceeded his .307-76-22-92 line each of the last two years while 12 others, including Craig of course, have hit the thresholds once.

Unfortunately, I'm such an incredible pioneer that Craig's ADP is now 38th over at MDC through 89 qualifying drafts. At least a couple of these leagues where I got him are going to be played out.

Also, LOL at "The Sporer"!!

Be careful you don't confuse "exceeds a certain benchmark" with "provides more value"

Curtis Granderson has averaged .247-42-112-119r-18sb over the last 2 years. I'm not saying I would take Curtis over Craig this year, but while Granderson didn't exceed .297-25-85-97r-5sb because his average sucked, I expect he did return more value.

[pjs24]

Be careful you don't confuse "exceeds a certain benchmark" with "provides more value"

Curtis Granderson has averaged .247-42-112-119r-18sb over the last 2 years. I'm not saying I would take Curtis over Craig this year, but while Granderson didn't exceed .297-25-85-97r-5sb because his average sucked, I expect he did return more value.

That's all ya got from all of that?

Granderson also goes 10 picks earlier this year.

[joncarlos]

That's all ya got from all of that?

Granderson also goes 10 picks earlier this year.

Where is Billy Butler going? He's a more durable version of Craig. I don't have a problem with Craig at his ADP, I just don't like him once he starts getting into the low 30s or high 20s in a mixed league.

I like Craig's spot in the lineup a lot. I just don't think there's any way he gets to 30 HRs this year, either because of injury or because he's not going to sustain that HR/FB for 600+ ABs.

I know you have to pick upside guys if you want to win, I just worry about the downside. He's got screws in his knees. He'll be 29 in July, which is great for peak power but maybe not for peak AVG/SB. The Cards still have a lot of depth, so there's no need to push him if he's not 100%.

Then again, maybe if they just leave him alone at 1B, maybe he'll be more durable this year.

[james33]

Wondering how long to extend him, in an NL-only league with 30% inflation.

$6 through 2014
$11 through 2015
$16 through 2016
$21 through 2017

[pjs24]

Craig's a pretty good hitter but he's always hurt and he's never elite. Posting 162 game averages for him is like projecting 36 starts for Rich Harden.

Craig was worth about the same as Adam LaRoche last year and that was his best year by far. ($20 for Craig and $19 for LaRoche)


Again, he's a very good hitter but why take a risk in the second round on a guy who can't stay healthy for five minutes? JC's right --- this guy's downside is 100 PAs. I think we've already seen his upside.

LOL!

BTW, that's Craig out-earning him in 35 fewer games.

[pjs24]

Where is Billy Butler going? He's a more durable version of Craig. I don't have a problem with Craig at his ADP, I just don't like him once he starts getting into the low 30s or high 20s in a mixed league.

I like Craig's spot in the lineup a lot. I just don't think there's any way he gets to 30 HRs this year, either because of injury or because he's not going to sustain that HR/FB for 600+ ABs.

I know you have to pick upside guys if you want to win, I just worry about the downside. He's got screws in his knees. He'll be 29 in July, which is great for peak power but maybe not for peak AVG/SB. The Cards still have a lot of depth, so there's no need to push him if he's not 100%.

Then again, maybe if they just leave him alone at 1B, maybe he'll be more durable this year.

A pick later. More durable, but with significantly less power. Craig's 22 HR this year in 119 gms would be Butler's 2nd best despite playing 158+ for the last four years. Thankfully Butler earned 1B this year or Craig would have a major advantage over him with 1B/OF, instead it's just a decent advantage with the dual-eligibility. I like Butler quite a bit, but Craig is a better hitter from what I've seen.

I'm not going to lose my league on a pick flopping, not even the first, but I can move a lot closer to winning it.

[pjs24]

I think this is the money quote of the entire thread. If you totally ignore all that history has told us about Allen Craig and his ability to stay on the field, even if you totally ignore that you still have a guy who's good but not great. I'd love to have him on my team but I sure as hell ain't gonna pay a premium for him.

I get the risk part re: injuries, they're obviously not an overwhelming concern for me. But where I think you're really missing out is suggesting that the 640 PA extrapolation is good not great. It's absolutely great, especially in 2011-2013 as I showed above.

It's top 30 in HRs, top 20 in Rs & RBIs, and top 15 in AVG. Not many guys going top 30 or better in the four main categories.

[Fresno Bob]

Wondering how long to extend him, in an NL-only league with 30% inflation.

$6 through 2014
$11 through 2015
$16 through 2016
$21 through 2017

2016 seems like a no brainer to me

[joncarlos]

Wondering how long to extend him, in an NL-only league with 30% inflation.

$6 through 2014
$11 through 2015
$16 through 2016
$21 through 2017

I think I'd go to $11. He'll be 31 in 2015. Do you really want to commit beyond that?

[willthethrill]

I think I'd go to $11. He'll be 31 in 2015. Do you really want to commit beyond that?

I tend to go a year too less vs. a year too long and would also be content with going to $11.

[Don Quixote]

I think I'd go to $11. He'll be 31 in 2015. Do you really want to commit beyond that?

That's the maximum I'd go. I'm conservative when it comes to extensions and would probably only go for $6/2014, but that's just me. My track record lately tells you I'm no expert.