2K13: Melky Cabrera

[DJBeasties]

Chemically-induced or actual skills? He projects for good power, speed and elite xBA. What do you guys think on him for 2013 being that he is now back in the AL, coming off a big suspension for PEDs and his outlook is cloudy.

He is right there on my Jacoby Ellsbury "How am I supposed to project this guy?" list for 2013.


Thoughts from the pen?

[revo]

I agree, he's a total wild card for 2K13. Is he the guy who had a great year for KC (.305, 102 R, 87 RBI, 18 HR, 20 SB)? Is he the guy who was having an MVP-type year for SF? Or is he the barely rosterable player he was in Atlanta in 2010?

Clearly, he's one of those huge gambles this season from a fantasy perspective - -how much do you pay for him? What is a bargain, and what is overpaying? Or will he have roto players so fearful that he could end up being a steal?

I think in mixed leagues, he would be a safe bet (and could be a huge steal) if he's drafted in the 150-175 range. Draft him any higher and you're playing with fire.

[joncarlos]

I'm willing to overpay for him in an AL-only league because he's been pretty durable, so he has a relatively low floor in that lineup. Say .275-15-80-90r-15sb or something like that as a floor, but I'd be willing to pay for more than that. I'd bet on something up to .315-20-90-105r-15sb

I'm guessing he'll spend a lot of time in the 2 hole, so he'll have tons of chances for runs, but the Jays' 8-9 hitters (ie the guys other than Reyes who would be on base for him) are still not great (Lind, Thole/Arencibia, maybe Bonifacio)

[cavebird]

I'm willing to overpay for him in an AL-only league because he's been pretty durable, so he has a relatively low floor in that lineup. Say .275-15-80-90r-15sb or something like that as a floor, but I'd be willing to pay for more than that. I'd bet on something up to .315-20-90-105r-15sb

I'm guessing he'll spend a lot of time in the 2 hole, so he'll have tons of chances for runs, but the Jays' 8-9 hitters (ie the guys other than Reyes who would be on base for him) are still not great (Lind, Thole/Arencibia, maybe Bonifacio)

How durable is he when the next one is 100 games?

[Gregg]

How durable is he when the next one is 100 games?

That is kind of what I was thinking. How do we know if his most productive years were not under the influence. If they made that dramatic of an improvement, wouldn't the fall be equally so?

I was thinking about going after him in the auction, but reviewing his numbers it is best to drive up the price and let someone else have him. At $15 I take the chance at 20+ not so much.

[joncarlos]

That is kind of what I was thinking. How do we know if his most productive years were not under the influence. If they made that dramatic of an improvement, wouldn't the fall be equally so?

I was thinking about going after him in the auction, but reviewing his numbers it is best to drive up the price and let someone else have him. At $15 I take the chance at 20+ not so much.

There's 2 different issues here. First, how much of his 2011 season was clean? And, mostly unrelated, how likely is he to get popped again?

For the first, I certainly can't answer that.

For the second, I would argue that there is already some discount baked into his price because of the possibility that he gets suspended again. To the point where the value you lose from a 100-gamer for Melky wouldn't be that much different than any "unsuspected" player getting popped for 50.

[cavebird]

I would think a 100-game suspension would be twice the hit of a 50-game suspension, but that's just my math.

[Hornsby]

I think that we know pretty much his entire 2012 season was anything but clean, and that leap that he made in 2011 makes me plenty suspicious. I think that the BA can stay in the .300 range, but the 20/90 figures that JC projects seem to be way high for me. I'd go more like 12/70 with a .285 average.

[Don Quixote]

I would think a 100-game suspension would be twice the hit of a 50-game suspension, but that's just my math.

No one said there was going to be math!

As for Melky, he could be the guy who makes or breaks your season. I'm not saying he's going to be good this year, but I will say that he has proven he can put up good numbers. The issue is whether he can put up good numbers and be clean at the same time.

I can't say whether I'd make a serious bid to buy him in any of my leagues. It's all a matter of context--how my auction is going, when his name gets thrown, what I need, how desperate I feel, etc. I don't particularly WANT him on my roster, but...