Please rank these guys for last keeper slot?

[scottw]

M.Gore--WAs--$10.
Josiah Gray--Was--$10.
K.Thompson--Chi--$2.

I can keep one of them unless a trade happens. All have upside as well as the obvious downsides. I will have to spend for a lot of pitching, as I got wiped out from free agents going to the AL [deGrom] and Buehler and Max Meyer out most of last year and all this year.
Thanks!
Scottw

[Pauly]

Hard to answer without any context, espcially the amount of inflation. 10 for Gray and Gore seems like inflated market value at best.

[revo]

I'd probably go with that order, taking a shot that Gore can hit his big potential, but don't love any.

[harmon]

If you don't have to keep one of them just pass, otherwise I would go Thompson-Gore-Gray with lowest salary first.

[scottw]

Sorry--standard 4x4, NL-only, $280.,10 pitcher/15 hitter. Pitching--SP or especially potential closers--go for max + value every year. Available pre-cutdown are only Verlander, Urias, Fried, Woodruff and Gonsolin. Only JAG's after those. There may be some overpriced guys released at cutdown, but that's tough to count on.
Besides the 3 guys above, I have only Doval and R.Suarez rostered, so I need a lot. As a reserve, I have only Eury Perez, a 19-yo SP.

[The Feral Slasher]

Sorry--standard 4x4, NL-only, $280.,10 pitcher/15 hitter. Pitching--SP or especially potential closers--go for max + value every year. Available pre-cutdown are only Verlander, Urias, Fried, Woodruff and Gonsolin. Only JAG's after those. There may be some overpriced guys released at cutdown, but that's tough to count on.
Besides the 3 guys above, I have only Doval and R.Suarez rostered, so I need a lot. As a reserve, I have only Eury Perez, a 19-yo SP.

do you have hitters below value you could keep instead ? if you do that might be a better option. I don't see any of those three as particularly good value. In most leagues you could get them back at the same price I think.

[Sour Masher]

The only one I'd consider keeping, depending on inflation, is Gore. I still think he has good upside for 2023 and beyond. Given your need for pitching and uncertainty about what will be available, I could see keeping Gore. His name value is still high enough that if you believe he can develop, it is justifiable to pay up to keep him, because at least one guy in your league might very well jack up his auction price anyway.

Either way, it sounds like you should commit to paying up for one of the big pitcher names in the auction. It may be thin, but at least those are all attractive players to go after.

[The Feral Slasher]

The only one I'd consider keeping, depending on inflation, is Gore. I still think he has good upside for 2023 and beyond. Given your need for pitching and uncertainty about what will be available, I could see keeping Gore. His name value is still high enough that if you believe he can develop, it is justifiable to pay up to keep him, because at least one guy in your league might very well jack up his auction price anyway.

Either way, it sounds like you should commit to paying up for one of the big pitcher names in the auction. It may be thin, but at least those are all attractive players to go after.

Gore walked almost 5 per nine innings last year and just wasn't very good. If I were going to take a chance on him it would be in the auction, not as a keeper. Is someone really going to go 10 or more for him ? Or if you really like him could you possibly get him at 5 bucks with an extra year of eligibility if you throw him back ?

EDIT - looking at Suarez and Doval as the best pitchers on the team, I'd question whether the focus should be on competing vs. rebuilding. Unless the hitting is crazy good it looks like a rebuilding year....either way I would be reluctant to keep any of the three mentioned.

[Sour Masher]

Gore walked almost 5 per nine innings last year and just wasn't very good. If I were going to take a chance on him it would be in the auction, not as a keeper. Is someone really going to go 10 or more for him ? Or if you really like him could you possibly get him at 5 bucks with an extra year of eligibility if you throw him back ?

EDIT - looking at Suarez and Doval as the best pitchers on the team, I'd question whether the focus should be on competing vs. rebuilding. Unless the hitting is crazy good it looks like a rebuilding year....either way I would be reluctant to keep any of the three mentioned.

I don't know why, but I thought I read it was a 12 team NL only league, so that affected my thoughts, in addition to the $280 cap, and the 10 pitcher spots and 15 hitter spots. I also assumed a lot of keeper slots, since this list is pretty low end and none of these guys would be considered if there are only a few keeper spots. It all adds up to more inflation, but you are right that Gore showed serious flaws last year. I do like him as a flyer this year, but you are right that it might be better to try to get him back in the auction. It depends on how severe the inflation is.

[scottw]

Correct, it is a 12 team NL-only. My hitters are much better than the pitching:
Cron, KHayes, Josh Rojas, D Swanson, Nico Hoerner, Acuna, Lux, S.Suzuki
We can keep up to 15 total but only 12 max non-rookies, max of 5 on rookie contract [do not count against $280. cap until activated].
My rookies are good: Eury Perez [sadly a year away?], R Hassell, Nick Gonzalez, Henry Davis, and Johan Rojas. To get under the max, I will need to drop one of these rookies or activate them before they are even up to MLB. See how ST goes, but right now I'm leaning Hassell. Any ideas?
Thanks!

[Sour Masher]

Correct, it is a 12 team NL-only. My hitters are much better than the pitching:
Cron, KHayes, Josh Rojas, D Swanson, Nico Hoerner, Acuna, Lux, S.Suzuki
We can keep up to 15 total but only 12 max non-rookies, max of 5 on rookie contract [do not count against $280. cap until activated].
My rookies are good: Eury Perez [sadly a year away?], R Hassell, Nick Gonzalez, Henry Davis, and Johan Rojas. To get under the max, I will need to drop one of these rookies or activate them before they are even up to MLB. See how ST goes, but right now I'm leaning Hassell. Any ideas?
Thanks!

Rojas has the weakest pedigree, but he is ready now and has nice speed, so it comes down to Hassell and Gonzales. I am down on both, and choosing which to cut is close, but I think I'd end up cutting Nicky G.

[scottw]

As you say, they are close. Nick G is up and will probably stay up and on a better team. Hassell looked like a shoo-in before Washington made some trades this winter, and I'm not too sure he makes the opening day. And, Rojas is staying for those SB's.

[Ken]

you can keep up to 15? That suggests you can keep less. Meaning you likely shouldn't keep any of those 3 pitchers at those prices. If you like them just buy them back at less $

[Sour Masher]

you can keep up to 15? That suggests you can keep less. Meaning you likely shouldn't keep any of those 3 pitchers at those prices. If you like them just buy them back at less $

Maybe, but with 15 keepers and a $280 cap in a 12 team NL only set up, Gore could conceivably exceed $10, if a couple of guys believe in him. Of course, that does not mean he should keep him, if he doesn't believe in him, but it sounds like aside from a few top names, pitching will be a wasteland in his auction. Gore fell apart last year, but those first two months sure were great--1.71 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 10.1 K/9. If he looks like he is injury free this Spring, I would be tempted. He is a guy who could way out earn $10 even in a 12 team mixed league, if the pitcher he was last April and May shows up for more of the year this year. He has the pedigree to suggest that those two months were not a total fluke. It would be a gamble, though, given his history of falling apart, and the elbow inflammation last year. But sometimes in an extremely high inflation league, it is justifiable to strategically overpay for high upside gambles.

[Ken]

Maybe, but with 15 keepers and a $280 cap in a 12 team NL only set up, Gore could conceivably exceed $10, if a couple of guys believe in him. Of course, that does not mean he should keep him, if he doesn't believe in him, but it sounds like aside from a few top names, pitching will be a wasteland in his auction. Gore fell apart last year, but those first two months sure were great--1.71 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 10.1 K/9. If he looks like he is injury free this Spring, I would be tempted. He is a guy who could way out earn $10 even in a 12 team mixed league, if the pitcher he was last April and May shows up for more of the year this year. He has the pedigree to suggest that those two months were not a total fluke. It would be a gamble, though, given his history of falling apart, and the elbow inflammation last year. But sometimes in an extremely high inflation league, it is justifiable to strategically overpay for high upside gambles.

I disagree. For a few reasons.

A deep keeper league like this does limit your options, but unless the keeper number (15) is MORE than the total number of active players (i.e. you keep all 23 starters) replacement level is unaffected. There may only be 50 pitchers who are above replacement available in your auction, but there's also only 50 places to put them on a roster in the auction, so your value over replacement numbers should hold.

The majority of projection systems out there put him at or below replacement even in a 12 team only league. So his *price* should be expected to be around that level. A $1-$3 pitcher at most based on the market.

Add in inflation. Unless we are talking about inflation levels of hundreds of percentage points, his price should not rise above ~$6. Couple this with auction dynamics - early star players eat up inflation, and the back end players can actually be deflated in price often times.

So can I promise you that you can get him back at $10? No. But if someone else pays $10 for Mackenzie Gore I can promise you there's another similar player that you are now getting cheaper because someone just took $10 out of the pot for what the market says is a $1-$3 guy.

If you are in love with Gore, fine, keep at $10 - but in that case, you wouldn't need to ask the community, he's just your guy and you are keeping him despite it being a bad decision.