2k13: Phil Hughes

[joncarlos]

One thing about Hughes... no matter what the numbers say, he is not good at striking people out. His fastball is pretty straight, leading to a ton of foul balls with 2 strikes. And his changeup isn't fooling enough hitters for that to work as a strikeout pitch either.

In 2011, he gave up a .364 wOBA to lefties but kept righties in check (sort of) with a .321 wOBA. In 2012, he stopped throwing his cutter against lefties and improved dramatically to a .270 wOBA. The problem is that he also stopped throwing it against righties, who TATTOED him for a .394 wOBA. He also started working in a slider (4.2% of his pitches last year) that really didn't make a memorable impression on me.

Anyway, his overall stats for 2012: 16-13, 191.1ip, 4.23 ERA, 165 Ks, 1.26 WHIP

4.56 FIP, 4.35 xFIP, 7.8 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.65 HR/9, .286 BABIP. 19.9% LD rate, 32% GB rate, 48% FB rate.

He's a fly ball pitcher in a crazy HR park, so his 2012 season might be about as good as it's going to get. He hasn't exactly been the picture of durability. The AL East is a beast again this year. The one thing in his favor is that the fly balls that DO stay in the park will have an outfield of Gardner/Granderson/Ichiro chasing them down.

I wish some team like Seattle or San Diego would trade for him. He could be such a good pitcher in a friendlier park. He's just a horrible fit for the Yankees.

I'll go with 200 IP, 1.23 WHIP, 4.25 ERA, 170 Ks

[Erik]

I just don't like him at all in that park and in that division. It's the totally wrong scenario for his skillset. I agree that 2012 is the best we'll see from him as a Yankee.

In an AL-only league, I would throw him out early in hopes that there are Yankee fans or people who see last year as the beginning of a positive trajectory. In a mixed league I would avoid the risk of rostering him altogether.

[revo]

batters slugged .460 against him. He gave up 35 HRs and 42 2Bs, which is crazy silly. This is the 2nd straight year he had a SLG% against of >.450.

He improved his K/BB ratio greatly, but in a much more difficult AL East, they're gonna continue to pound out XBHs against him. If his BB% increases to more along his career norms, his ERA is going to balloon. Because of his XBH tendency, I can't foresee an ERA of sub-4.00, so I think he's at best a P4 or P5 in someone's fantasy rotation.

[dslaw]

I won't mind having him because I think he will get wins. I see something like a 4.30 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with 160 Ks over 200 IP so I won't be looking to get him too hard.

[Don Quixote]

He stayed healthy last year, for once. Whether that was good or bad...

Once you filter out all the Yankee noise, he's been fairly average, and he's still young (26). I'd go a few bucks on him, but won't cry if I don't get him.

[Gregg]

He will be 27 in June. He struck out 116 batters in his final 138 innings. His era during that time was 3.70.

With his whip and wins being acceptable I think he is worth taking a chance as a #3 o#4 starter.

He has shown flashes of brilliance. This could be a mini break out year.

I will go with 3.80 era, 1.25 whip, 180ks in 205 innings, 17 wins.

I traded for him at $11 bucks and have him this year and next.