2K14: Clayton Kershaw

[Moonlight J]

I recall reading a couple years ago something about relating how many wins a player is worth to how many dollars an extra win is worth for a team. Am I making any sense? By that metric, I wonder whether Kershaw's performance in the last couple years was worth $30m/year?

Here you go http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...sition=P#value (see Dollars column)

Paul & I talked about this quite a bit last night on our podcast - https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/...ur/id787270212

[james33]

Thanks, Jason! I look forward to listening to the podcast.

By that fangraphs link, I'd think the Dodgers clearly overpaid (before opening it, I thought there was a chance he was worth it, but that's probably because he was on my championship team last year).

Fangraphs link said Kershaw was worth $30m in 2011, $24m in 2012, and $33m in 2013, an average of $29m per year. Roughly the same average value as what his salary going forward is. With pitchers, there's always risk, so I'd bet he'd be more likely to get worse than better.

[Moonlight J]

Thanks, Jason! I look forward to listening to the podcast.

By that fangraphs link, I'd think the Dodgers clearly overpaid (before opening it, I thought there was a chance he was worth it, but that's probably because he was on my championship team last year).

Fangraphs link said Kershaw was worth $30m in 2011, $24m in 2012, and $33m in 2013, an average of $29m per year. Roughly the same average value as what his salary going forward is. With pitchers, there's always risk, so I'd bet he'd be more likely to get worse than better.

and factor in the value of a win moving forward, escalating salaries, etc....I have zero issues with this move for the Dodgers. This is the new market in baseball with the steroid-like injection of media money. It puts more of an emphasis on teams drafting and developing talent because free agency is only going to get worse. If Kershaw were a FA right now, he could have netted more than this.

[james33]

Ah, I get it. So even if his performance was worth $29m/year the past three years, with more money in baseball, baseball salary inflation is expected to be much higher than, say, general inflation in the U.S.?

[madducks]

That comes out to approximately $9800 a pitch. A Pitch.

I could live comfortably off of 10 pitches per year. Kershaw pitches. Not mine.

[Sour Masher]

I could live comfortably off of 10 pitches per year. Kershaw pitches. Not mine.

At the start of grad school, I lived off of one pitcher per year. By the end of grad school, I was up to about two pitches. After a BA, a MA, and a PhD, and several years of experience, I am now making between 5 and 6 pitches a year.

[Friarfan]

So, the Dodgers payroll now stands at 290 million. If they win the Tanaka war, it'll be over 310 million. Should the rest of the NL West (hell, the NL) even bother?

[chancellor]

So, the Dodgers payroll now stands at 290 million. If they win the Tanaka war, it'll be over 310 million. Should the rest of the NL West (hell, the NL) even bother?

Given what elD has said about Dodger management, sure. The Yankees had a similar monetary dominance, and they've done well, but hardly great, the last 20 years.

[Hornsby]

Given what elD has said about Dodger management, sure. The Yankees had a similar monetary dominance, and they've done well, but hardly great, the last 20 years.

Exactly, having money doesn't mean that you'll win because of it, it simply means that you have a far greater margin for error. In other words, you can outspend some, but not all, of your mistakes...

[revo]

So, the Dodgers payroll now stands at 290 million. If they win the Tanaka war, it'll be over 310 million. Should the rest of the NL West (hell, the NL) even bother?

Cot's has them at $236m as of today.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Cot's has them at $236m as of today.

Cot's is in the right neighborhood.

[mjl]

At the start of grad school, I lived off of one pitcher per year. By the end of grad school, I was up to about two pitches. After a BA, a MA, and a PhD, and several years of experience, I am now making between 5 and 6 pitches a year.

heh. When I used to play a lot more poker, I was at a table with a friend and a woman who was up big and telling us about how excited she was because her husband wouldn't let her buy ostriches with his money so she had to win it at poker. apparently ostriches cost $350 each. so we did all of our poker math in ostriches for a while after that.

[Sour Masher]

heh. When I used to play a lot more poker, I was at a table with a friend and a woman who was up big and telling us about how excited she was because her husband wouldn't let her buy ostriches with his money so she had to win it at poker. apparently ostriches cost $350 each. so we did all of our poker math in ostriches for a while after that.

LOL. that is hilarious, and reminds me of a good friend in college, and a guy I played poker with, who always bet in chicken mcnugget math. He'd talk about big bets or calls in relation to how many McNuggets he could buy with the money. Any time someone made a sizable bet, he'd say "that's a lot of mcnuggets."

[james33]

Had an old roommate that quoted everything gambling-related in terms of lap dances. "How'd you do?" "I won 5.5 lap dances!" ($110)

[Sour Masher]

Had an old roommate that quoted everything gambling-related in terms of lap dances. "How'd you do?" "I won 5.5 lap dances!" ($110)

So, by that math, Kershaw can now buy 10.75 million lap dances.