AL 5x5 keeper help

[qatman]

I'm entering my second year in this AL-only league which is 5x5 with OBP and TB replacing AVG and HR, and uses the standard 23 positions. Each team must keep 7-12 players per year at a $5 increase in salary. This limits inflation - in fact last year there was very slight deflation by my reckoning since few teams had that many viable keepers. We have a very early slow auction starting in February so keeper decisions are due by mid-February, making it difficult to judge playing time.

My keeper candidates in approximate order of preference (with 2013 salary):

Gordon 20 - definite
Wilhelmsen 6 - definite
Rondon 6 - definite unless DET sign a 'proven closer', then probable
E. Ramirez 6
Chisenhall 11
F. Gutierrez 7
Canzler 6
Olt 6
N. Franklin 6
C. Wells 6

Other possibilities
Boesch 16, Saltalamacchia 14, Cobb 11
J. Burton, M. Perez, Barnes, Bogaerts, Odorizzi, Peguero, Choice, Collins, Crow, HJ Lee, Paxton, Romine, Snyder, Taylor, Falu 6

Due to TB replacing HR, full-time players are more valuable than usual. I should contend this year with a reasonable auction.

Any thoughts on some of these guys, especially Canzler, Olt, Franklin, Bogaerts? I guess the point is that they are likely to go for less than 6 in the auction. One other wrinkle that I should mention is that there is a Rule V draft where each team can choose to sign one additional player that another team dropped. I am trying to move 2-3 for 1 since I have a lot of maybes but so far have had no luck.

[DJBeasties]

If you have to keep 7, that is going to be tough with this list and prices. What are other mgr's freeze lists looking like? That string of $6 players is tough to speculate on because I'm sure someone will earn more than $6, but who? There are lot of playing time issues there as of January. Also, honestly I'm not sure who some of the guy are just by last name. Which Snyder/Snider is this? And which Taylor?

E. Ramirez 6-- middling, control pitcher maybe worth $5
Chisenhall 11 -- Has the PT coming and has upside but I think he's not for profit at this price
F. Gutierrez 7 -- can't hit RHP and bounceback to 2010 seems unlikely but so far your closest bet to getting back your money.
Canzler 6 -- good power, huge holes, no value in '13.
Olt 6 -- the Berkman signing squeezes him, not sure he's skilled enough to keep on talent alone at $6.
N. Franklin 6 -- Mariners prospect with good upside, may be ready to break camp but who knows?
C. Wells 6 -- on his way to a platoon
Boesch 16 -- his star has dimmed, no way I'd keep him at $16
Saltalamacchia 14 -- probably no better than a $10 player, low BA, only power, streaky.
Cobb 11 -- I like Cobb a lot. But I'm not sure on $11. I might speculate here though of all these guys.
J. Burton -- I'd keep him. Good profile and thought not the closer, has the stuff.
M. Perez -- I assume Martin, but still no.
Barnes -- highly rated Red Sox, no or little value in '13 as of now.
Bogaerts -- another highly rated Red Sox, no or little value in '13 as of now.
Odorizzi -- Royals prospect, may get the starts?
Peguero -- not sure which Peguero, but either way no.
Choice -- longer term. Not '13
Collins -- no value at this point.
Crow -- Aaron Crow? Pass.
HJ Lee -- not sure who this.
Paxton -- I like him but not this year for $6.
Romine -- Not sure which Romine but either way, no.
Snyder -- Ben Snyder or Travis Snider?
Taylor -- Which Taylor?
Falu 6 -- 150 ABs, little value.

Tough but I'd add Cobb, F. Gutierrez, J. Burton, and N. Franklin if I had to pick from this list.

[joncarlos]

I think you want to keep 2 types of guys... guys who will contribute SOMETHING in 2013, even if it's not quite what they cost, and guys who might be worth keeping in 2014 and thus make good trade candidates in season.

I would probably go:

Gordon 20 - definite
Wilhelmsen 6 - definite
Rondon 6 - definite unless DET sign a 'proven closer', then probable
~~~~
E Ramirez 6
Chisenhall 11
Cobb 11
~~~~
Franklin 6
Olt 6


If you wanted to keep another MR like Crow or Burton, I wouldn't argue. I think either Olt or Franklin could get 200 ABs this year and be in line to start next year. I'd lean towards Franklin just because Olt is always on the trade block. I'd rather have Franklin's upside than a guy like Casper Wells or FraGu or Boesch.

If you really squint hard, you can make an argument for Boesch 16 over Chisenhall 11 in the 'overpriced but productive hitter' slot. Chisenhall has a line of .260/.295 OBP-12-38-43r-3sb in 109 games. I can see him matching that pace this year for 130. Boesch has had his moments. I thought he was good down the stretch but he hit .196/.281/.333 in September.

[qatman]

I think you want to keep 2 types of guys... guys who will contribute SOMETHING in 2013, even if it's not quite what they cost, and guys who might be worth keeping in 2014 and thus make good trade candidates in season.

That is good advice. There is considerable dumping so it is good to have potential future stars available as perhaps someone will bite. There are several teams that will have poor keeper lists (losing at least $10-$15 in value) and really only one or two with good setups. I actually have one of the top three keeper lists, as sad as it is. The guy with the $11 Trout is in the best shape.

I would probably go:

Gordon 20 - definite
Wilhelmsen 6 - definite
Rondon 6 - definite unless DET sign a 'proven closer', then probable
~~~~
E Ramirez 6
Chisenhall 11
Cobb 11
~~~~
Franklin 6
Olt 6

Olt was going to be an automatic keeper before the Berkman signing. I am still leaning toward keeping him although it is likely he will be available for <$6 which is of course the bottom line. Odorizzi was a likely keeper before his trade. I am a bit leery of Cobb at $11 as he does not have a guaranteed spot but all of these guys are flawed. Boesch was supposed to be my team foundation last year but of course that did not pan out.

If I can't make any deals then I will likely keep all 8 of the guys you mentioned except for either Cobb or Olt. I should be able to get something for Olt + Cobb so will try that as a package before Olt gets dealt to Arizona.

[qatman]

If you have to keep 7, that is going to be tough with this list and prices. What are other mgr's freeze lists looking like? That string of $6 players is tough to speculate on because I'm sure someone will earn more than $6, but who? There are lot of playing time issues there as of January. Also, honestly I'm not sure who some of the guy are just by last name. Which Snyder/Snider is this? And which Taylor?

The confusing players are Brandon Snyder TEX, Michael Taylor OAK, Austin Romine NYA, Martin Perez TEX, Aaron Crow KCA, Hak Ju Lee TAM, Carlos Peguero SEA, none of which are likely keepers although Romine could be the starting catcher possibly. I was out of contention fairly early last year and picked up a lot of FA who could possibly help this year.

The other freeze lists are mostly poor due to the $5 increase. It is mostly a game of getting a few good values and then minimizing losses elsewhere. I probably have the 2nd or 3rd best list actually.

Your suggestions of Cobb, Gutierrez, Franklin and Burton are appreciated. I am curious to see what the Yankees will do as Canzler could get quite a few AB in a friendly home park. Unfortunately I see he only has OF eligibility for 2013 which decreases his value. I was not as high on Cobb given the rotation uncertainty in TAM but will give him another look.

Thanks.

[joncarlos]

That is good advice. There is considerable dumping so it is good to have potential future stars available as perhaps someone will bite. There are several teams that will have poor keeper lists (losing at least $10-$15 in value) and really only one or two with good setups. I actually have one of the top three keeper lists, as sad as it is. The guy with the $11 Trout is in the best shape.

Olt was going to be an automatic keeper before the Berkman signing. I am still leaning toward keeping him although it is likely he will be available for <$6 which is of course the bottom line. Odorizzi was a likely keeper before his trade. I am a bit leery of Cobb at $11 as he does not have a guaranteed spot but all of these guys are flawed. Boesch was supposed to be my team foundation last year but of course that did not pan out.

If I can't make any deals then I will likely keep all 8 of the guys you mentioned except for either Cobb or Olt. I should be able to get something for Olt + Cobb so will try that as a package before Olt gets dealt to Arizona.

I think concerns about Cobb's rotation spot are overblown, but I can certainly understand not wanting to risk $11 on a guy who could miss the rotation. Odorizzi is almost a lock to start at AAA, at least until he passes the super-2 deadline. Niemann is still a candidate to be dealt, and I don't think Hernandez/Carmona has a real shot at the rotation.

[SlideRule]

I mostly agree with JC.

I'm curious how your Rule V draft works - we've been thinking about doing one in our AL keeper league. Can you share details? Does it help encourage trading or discourage keeper hoarding? How does the selection order go, last to first? If a team has a player taken, are they exempt for all other picks?

[qatman]

I'm curious how your Rule V draft works - we've been thinking about doing one in our AL keeper league. Can you share details? Does it help encourage trading or discourage keeper hoarding? How does the selection order go, last to first? If a team has a player taken, are they exempt for all other picks?

This is only my second year in the league but here is the official rule:

RULE 5 DRAFT:
Prior to beginning the All Star Draft, but after final drops have been reported, a Rule 5 Draft will be held. This draft has a single round of drafting, whereby each owner may choose to select any player who has been dropped by any owner subsequent to the end of the prior season. In other words, you may select a keepable player that another owner chose not to keep. The order of the Rule 5 Draft will be based on the previous year's final standings: 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 4, 3, 2, 1. However, any new/replacement/expansion owners will select first, in reverse order of the new owner draft. Any owner who kept only 6 players (4 for new owners), MUST make a selection in the Rule 5 Draft.

Last year there were two replacement owners including me. I elected to add Josh Tomlin at $7 who another owner had dropped (obviously that did not turn out well). Ten of the twelve owners chose someone in this draft - I think at least two of them had only kept 6 other players and so were forced to choose someone to have 7 keepers. Actually I had forgotten that you could keep 6 and choose a castoff. I suspect that this year there will be a few teams that choose one of my leftovers.

To answer your questions:
1. There were a fair number of keeper trades before the deadline, but I don't know what is normal. I don't think it had much of an effect on that. The real driver here is the minimum 7 keeper rule which drives 2-1 and 3-1 trades.
2. Selection order is 5, 6, ..., 12, 4, 3, 2, 1. We pay 4 spots so basically a slight reward for trying hard last year.
3. The players chosen have already been dropped so there is no reason to have a limit on choosing from one team.

Probably "Rule V" is a misnomer but they have been using it for years.

[qatman]

Thanks again joncarlos. I forgot that Shields was gone so there are two spots for Niemann/Cobb/Archer/etc. It looks like this year's keeper deadline is not until late February so I will monitor the situation, and perhaps try to package Olt with a bunch of guys like Bogaerts while there is still uncertainty.

[qatman]

So I am now down to Cobb 11 or Chisenhall 11 for my last keeper. I can also probably trade Cobb for Leonys Martin at 10. I am considering this although it would fill 3 of 4 OF spots as I like Martin's keeper/trade value better.

My other keepers are Wilhelmsen 6, Rondon 6, Erasmo Ramirez 6, Gordon 20, Olt 6, Gutierrez 7. The deadline is Friday

Thanks for any advice. I have had some offers for Cobb but nothing great. Could probably get Ackley 18.

[virgonomic]

Martin 10
------------
Cobb 11
------------
Chisenhall 11

I think Martin has the best chance of earning the $10. Cobb should, but he may lose starts to Archer and Niemann. I think Chisenhall will he hard-pressed to earn $11. He might hit double-digit homeruns but will not overwhelm in any category.

[qatman]

Thanks for the response. I was unable to obtain Martin but did trade Chisenhall 11 for Balfour 11 - that now gives me 2.5 closers and since there are only 6 being auctioned I should have some trade value. I will probably not keep Cobb but am trying to package him for an upgrade.