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2k13: Jose Bautista

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  • 2k13: Jose Bautista

    Joey Bats 2012: 399 PA, 241/358/527, 27hr, 65rbi, 64r, 5sb.

    Walk rate of 14.8% (down from previous year, about even with 2010), K rate of 15.8% (actually on a 4-year improvement trend). Somehow managed only a 13.6% LD rate which helps explain his low AVG despite the low Ks. Oh, and he popped up about 15% of his fly balls for the 3rd year in a row, which doesn't help. Suffice it to say, dude is swinging for the fences. A lot. His HR/FB was still 20% which is very nice.

    The Jays are putting a great lineup around him (Reyes, Melky, Bautista, E40, Rasmus/Lawrie). Bautista no longer has any pressure to be the man. He just needs to stay healthy. The Jays' beat writer says he's fully healthy:

    Chris Toman ‏@Chris_Toman
    Bautista says wrist fully healed, unlikely to play in WBC: http://atmlb.com/WgJrKF

    Chris Toman ‏@Chris_Toman
    Bautista says wrist is 100%, swinging as hard as possible. Been hitting for a month. Gone from dry swings, fungo bat, to normal bat, in cage
    Bill James has him down for 642pa, .259-39-99-96r-7sb. If he plays 150 games he should top 100 RBIs quite easily. This is a guy who could be a difference maker in a lot of leagues, if his price is $25ish or he slips to the 20th pick due to injury concerns, then puts up a full season.

    Quick game of toss-up: which worries you more, Joey Bats' wrist or Giancarlo's knee? They're pretty similar players, Stanton more talented, Bautista with a better park and lineup.

    Put me down as an optimist for Joey Bats: 575 PA, .270-40-105-95r-5sb

  • #2
    That toss-up is a good one and I think it's exactly a toss-up in terms of my concern. The wrist for Bautista is reported to be good but I will wait until I see him it Spring Training to form my non-medical opinion.

    I love Bautista's power profile and if he's healthy, the counting stats will be there. He is a beautiful three-run homer waiting to happen. Strong EYE, elite power, good lineup but the health and the bouncing up and down over the last few years with consistency makes him a riskier proposition in my mind. $25 player?
    Find that level above your head and help you reach it.

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    • #3
      re: health:

      2012: 92 games (all games missed due to wrist injury)
      2011: 149 games
      2010: 161 games

      I think he'll be a good deal on draft day.

      Originally posted by joncarlos View Post
      Put me down as an optimist for Joey Bats: 575 PA, .270-40-105-95r-5sb
      I'm also optimistic (homerism, sure); I'll say similar, slightly worse avg, slightly better power, esp RBIs with Reyes & Melky ahead of him. .265-45-120-100r-5sb
      It certainly feels that way. But I'm distrustful of that feeling and am curious about evidence.

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      • #4
        Yeah up until '12 he had been durable. It's just that it's a wrist and sometimes it takes awhile to get right after a wrist surgery. Hopefully he's jacking bombs in early March.
        Find that level above your head and help you reach it.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by DJBeasties View Post
          Yeah up until '12 he had been durable. It's just that it's a wrist and sometimes it takes awhile to get right after a wrist surgery. Hopefully he's jacking bombs in early March.
          Which will bump him to a $30-$35 player.

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          • #6
            Players coming off the sheath injury usually start slow even after the recovery period.

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            • #7
              What do you guys think? I've been offered Joey Bats who'll be a 14 round keeper for Mucho Machado as a 22. Rolldown is 4 rounds every year. For this year I know it's a steal but anyone have concerns that Bautista might go the way of Tex?

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              • #8
                I would take that without blinking. I'm much more in the camp of proven commodities and though he had an off year and a surgery I think he's a better bet for some big production than Machado. So this means Bats is a 10th next year and a 6th the following?
                Find that level above your head and help you reach it.

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                • #9
                  I would be all over this.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Gregg View Post
                    I would be all over this.
                    Yep...and hurry before he changes his mind.
                    If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
                    - Terence McKenna

                    Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

                    How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

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                    • #11
                      Actually Bats is a 13 not a 14 so he would be a 9 next year then a 5 then I could freeze him at 5 the third year. Thanks for the input. I really think Machado is gonna be a stud and I think he'll get ss eligibility so the extra 2 years on him was intriguing to me

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