2k13: Carlos Santana

[joncarlos]

Hopefully the additions of Nick Swisher and Mark Reynolds will make the Indians' lineup a bit more potent next year.

Santana 2012: 252/365/420, 18hr, 72r, 76rbi, 3sb. 14.9% walk rate, 16.6% K rate.

BABIP of .278, compared to .263 in 2011 and .277 in 2010, so the AVG might not get a lot better. He could hit a few more bombs and continue to improve his K rate, and maybe he gets to .270. But otherwise, he's a lot more useful in an OBP league.

Hits a ton of infield flies (over 11% in 3 straight years) which really kills him. HR/FB% was 16% in 2011, but in the 11s in 2010 and 2012. That would be where the extra power might come from.

In 2012, he played 100 games at C, 21 at first base and 27 at DH. In 2011, he played 95 games at catcher and 66 at first base. Reynolds will play either 1B/DH, and Santana will see some time at both, but the Indians still have nothing else at catcher, so Santana will still see a lot of time behind the plate.

If you squint hard, you can see .265-24-90-80r-2sb which is probably worth mid-teens in an AL-only league.

[DJBeasties]

Santana was the top-rated catcher on a lot of draft boards going in to 2012 but he fell hard after not living up to the expectations on him. In one on my leagues, I dealt a cheap Billy Butler for him trying to catch him at the low point of his season. His peripherals had started to look better in July and the XBH came around but then he went flat again.

He has a very good EYE with respect to his walk rate (16%BB) and he does make contact at about a 78-80% clip which is good for a slugger. If he's healthy I would expect a nice rebound to 25+ HRs to go with his .260 BA.

[BigJonEmpire]

He has good patience at the plate and and doesn't swing at many pitches out of the zone. He might benefit from swinging at more pitches and being a bit more aggressive with pitches in the zone. He only makes average contact so far in the majors but was at over 80 percent in all but one stop in the minors, where he usually hit for high averages. I think he will eventually hit for better averages and boost his homer count into the 30-plus range. I would bet he hits better than .270 this season.

[Mithrandir]

Looks like he's playing the "House of Blues" in Vegas and a short stint in Asia.

[revo]

during last season I tended to think of him as a disappointment, but his ending numbers are very similar to what he did in '11, besides the HR drop. So it looks like a solid baseline is forming for him:

75 Runs
23 HRs
77 RBIs
4 SBs
.245 BA

But in the minors, he was a .290 career hitter, so the BA seems like it could creep upwards. So my projection for him will be a return to form on the power, and a slight move upwards on the BA:

80 Runs
25 HRs
82 RBIs
4 SBs
.260 BA

[Todd Zola]

Granted his April and May weren't great, but keep in mind Santana was concussed on May 26, then...

June .162 0 HR
July .276 4 HR
August .277 4 HR
Sept .280 5 HR

Cherry picking of splits or cause and effect?

I usually consider this more cherry-picking than actionable, but at least some consideration has to be given for Santana not being 100% for a few weeks, regardless if he was cleared to play.

[Riff Raff]

Wasn't he hurt early last year? Or playing through an injury?