2K13: Austin Jackson

[DJBeasties]

Here is a player that is easy to like from a fantasy perspective.

Decent EYE with a BB/K ratio of 11% BB and 75% Contact last year. He does rely on a high BABIP in order to keep a good BA. As that goes,m so goes the BA due to the high amount of strikeouts. Elite speed but he did not get the green light as much in '12. It will be interesting to see what they do with that in '13 and if it's a function of having Prince Fielder and maybe they don't want to run into outs?

Jackson has some developing power as well with 55 XBH (29 2Bs, 10 3Bs, 16 HRs). Hopefully he continues this increasing trend of drawing walks because this is a guy who can fill the stat sheet, especially with a favorable BABIP.

What do you guys think?

[cavebird]

He always scares me as being extremely risky. The potential and the production can be there, and it was there last year. But the K-rate along with a slump in BABIP could cause him to be hitting .200 two months into a season. That, combined with the zillion outfield types that the Tigers seem to perpetually have around, worries me could cause him to lose playing time. I like him, but I don't know if I would spend a premium amount on him because of the risk.

[revo]

I think the opposite of CB -- I don't think he's risky at all.

They said he would grow into the power, and that appears to be the case so far (4, 10, 16 HRs). He increased his SLG% by nearly 100 pts last season. He's also a very consistent source of Runs, and he improved on his RBIs by almost 50%.

His K% has actually decreased nicely, from 27% his rookie year to 21% in '12. He's also upped his BB% from 7% to 11%.

When you combine his hitting prowess with his durability, he's on the bases -- a lot.

My major concern with him is for a speedy guy, he has a very troubling lack of steals and a poor success rate. 12 SBs last year? 9 CS? WTF?

So I think you should go into your draft/auction expecting him to be a solid source of Runs and BA, and a contributor in SBs and HRs. And if his talent wins out and he gets back to the 25 SB mark, then you may have a 20-20 guy on your hands.

And what's his downside? Look at 2011, when he hit just .249, but still gave you enough in his other categories to be a season-long starter.

My prediction for 2K13:
110 Runs
18 HRs
60 RBIs
19 SBs
.292 BA

[joncarlos]

He's durable, and he seems to be able to sustain a high BABIP. But Jim Leyland really doesn't like to run, and as revo pointed out, he's terrible at it anyway. He's still prone to bad luck and a lower BABIP would crush his AVG. But I don't worry about his PT. His floor is 550ab, .260-15-50-90r-10sb. His ceiling is probably .310-25-75-115r-20sb. I do love the decreased K rate.

[BigJonEmpire]

I think Jackson is only getting better the next few seasons. I think the power will continue to rise and his batting averages will be more skill based than luck and speed dependent.

I wrote this in July:

Jackson entered the majors in his age 22 season. Three seasons in the majors and not yet in his prime - that is almost the recipe for a breakout season. His [COLOR=blue !important][COLOR=blue !important]walk [COLOR=blue !important]rate[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR] has improved two straight seasons from 7 percent to 8.4 percent to this season's 11.8 percent. That looks like real improvement. He has also cut his K percentage to 22.6 percent from last season's 27.1 percent which was a slight bump up from 2010's 25.2 percent.

Jackson is swinging at fewer pitches out of the strike zone which is probably key to both improvements. In case you are wondering, Jackson's O-Swing has improved three years running. Jackson attributes his lower [COLOR=blue !important][COLOR=blue !important]strikeouts[/COLOR][/COLOR] to not chasing two-strike pitches, which makes a lot of sense. Swinging at better pitches does more than just increase walks and reduce strikeouts. It also allows the batter to make better and more consistent contact. Better contact has likely been a large part of his power increase.

Before the season and in Spring Training, Jackson worked with hitting coach Lloyd McClendon on reducing his high leg kick and shortening his swing. Jackson says this allows him to turn on better fastballs. "I'm extremely pleased by how quickly he adjusted and adapted," McClendon said to the Detroit Free-Press. "And really the credit goes to him because he wanted to do it and he was willing to do it."

The future looks very bright for Austin Jackson. But we can find a few worrisome factors if we try. His BABIP is an extremely high .399 and despite his improved skills and terrific speed is not really sustainable. We can expect at least some regression to his career averages, though that is not as big a drop as we may once have expected. His13.3 HR/FB is not absurdly high except relative to his career 7.1 percentage. There may be some luck in his homerun rate, but again part of this is based on real improvements so it is very difficult to say how much to expect it to decline over the next 12 weeks (if at all).

[dslaw]

I never liked Jackson due to the high K rate he has had. But three years in and he has had some success despite a still high K rate so maybe I was wrong about him. I am thinking about .260 with 20 HRs, 55 RBIs, 90 runs and 15-20 steals. I think the success rate on steals has to go up and with that increase he will run a little more.