2K13: Aroldis Chapman

[revo]

Chapman had one of the greatest seasons by a closer in history, posting a 1.51 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and a whopping 122 Ks in just 71 IP, and now the Reds are prepared to turn him loose on the starting rotation.

He posted a 5.3 K/BB ratio and he cut his walk rate by 2/3rds, from 7.4/9 to 2.9/9 last year.

In 135 career IP, he's allowed just 68 hits and 6 HRs with 212 Ks. And oh yeah, he throws 105 mph.

So can he hold up as a starter? Recent conversions Chris Sale & Lance Lynn made a great transition to starter, but Daniel Bard, Neftali Feliz and Joba Chamberlain all failed.

Can his throwing arm withstand thousands of 100-mph pitches?

I'll say he goes 175 IP with a 13-6 record, 3.10 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 220 Ks.

[cavebird]

I would hope as a starter he doesn't dial it up to 100 very often, although you never know, Randy Johnson did with regularity, although he was probably the exception that proves the rule. That being said, with Dusty still around, I would not discount the possibility that he ends up as the left-handed set-up guy because teams have to have one of those.

[whalewang]

Chapman had one of the greatest seasons by a closer in history, posting a 1.51 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and a whopping 122 Ks in just 71 IP, and now the Reds are prepared to turn him loose on the starting rotation.

He posted a 5.3 K/BB ratio and he cut his walk rate by 2/3rds, from 7.4/9 to 2.9/9 last year.

In 135 career IP, he's allowed just 68 hits and 6 HRs with 212 Ks. And oh yeah, he throws 105 mph.

So can he hold up as a starter? Recent conversions Chris Sale & Lance Lynn made a great transition to starter, but Daniel Bard, Neftali Feliz and Joba Chamberlain all failed.

Can his throwing arm withstand thousands of 100-mph pitches?

I'll say he goes 175 IP with a 13-6 record, 3.10 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 220 Ks.

That would be close to 250% increase in innings. I highly doubt they would tax his arm to that extreme since they have invested in him but that raises the question how many innings will management let him throw if he's a starter.

[Judge Jude]

Let someone else buy him in 2013 redraft leagues, especially 4x4.

Very different story in those dynasty versions. He should find a great niche by 2014.

[cavebird]

That would be close to 250% increase in innings. I highly doubt they would tax his arm to that extreme since they have invested in him but that raises the question how many innings will management let him throw if he's a starter.

You should so, in the name of obscure baseball players, change your name to whalewander.

[Judge Jude]

You should so, in the name of obscure baseball players, change your name to whalewander.

I think that would depend on how he arrived at that name

#crossthread
#justsayin

[revo]

That would be close to 250% increase in innings. I highly doubt they would tax his arm to that extreme since they have invested in him but that raises the question how many innings will management let him throw if he's a starter.

Chris Sale went from 71 IP to 192 IP this past season with no issues. Alexi Ogando and CJ Wilson didn't have issues with a higher workload. I'm not sure what the cap will be, but if it's not at least 160 IP, what's the point of the conversion?

[Judge Jude]

"The Verducci effect is bunk, that much is clear to me."

agreed on his specific parameters.

I still think it is VERY difficult to throw more than 200 IP in the majors, and I wonder about any SP in September who is crossing that threshold for the first time - especially if I'm in a pennant race. Must say I haven't seen a definitive study on that point.

[cavebird]

I think that would depend on how he arrived at that name

#crossthread
#justsayin

It probably would have helped if I had correctly spelled Jim Walewander's name correctly, too.

[Todd Zola]

Chris Sale went from 71 IP to 192 IP this past season with no issues. Alexi Ogando and CJ Wilson didn't have issues with a higher workload. I'm not sure what the cap will be, but if it's not at least 160 IP, what's the point of the conversion?

Not commenting on the validity of the Verducci Effect -- just want to point out the premise is pitchers struggle the year after the year with the increase, which is 2013 for Sale.

The original "math" was under 25 years old and 30 more innings than the previous season.

[revo]

Not commenting on the validity of the Verducci Effect -- just want to point out the premise is pitchers struggle the year after the year with the increase, which is 2013 for Sale.

The original "math" was under 25 years old and 30 more innings than the previous season.

interesting. Do you have examples? Not putting you on the spot, but I just want to make checking easier.

[Todd Zola]

Examples of what? Whatever the answer, mine is no.

Best thing to do is google Verducci Effect.

[Judge Jude]

in case anyone is drafting this weekend, we don't know yet if Chapman is a starter or a closer:

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/danny-knobler/21892871/reds-chapman-i-want-to-close

he should succeed either way, but I imagine a buyer would prefer to know what he's buying...

[cavebird]

This is a classic buy skills not roles situation. However, it does make it tough to sort out the rest of your pitching staff.

[Hornsby]

My guess, based on absolutely nothing other than managers liking players in certain roles, is that he stays a closer. Oh yeah, and this:

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- The Reds treated Aroldis Chapman like a starting pitcher on Saturday. He went four innings, and manager Dusty Baker even made sure he got two at-bats.

So is Chapman going to be a starter or a closer?

The Reds still won't say, although some in the organization expect a decision to be made in the next two or three days. It's hard to say what effect Saturday's outing will have. Chapman was wild early and didn't really light up the radar gun (his top fastball was 95 mph), but he got better as his outing went on.

What was perhaps most interesting about the day was how strongly Chapman spoke when asked what he wants the Reds' decision to be.

"I would like to be a closer, but that's not in my hands," Chapman said.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/danny-knobler/21892871/reds-chapman-i-want-to-close

So yeah, my bet is that he remains a closer...