2K13: Edwin Jackson

[onejayhawk]

EJ is one of my favorite WW aquisitons. No one's SP1, and only a poor man's SP2, he is a solid SP3, who is not appreciated for what he brings: reliable innings and strikeouts. Now with the Cubs, who are fairly good team in a hitter's park.

Some facts:
Six straight years 30+ starts
5 straight years 180+ IP, 10+ W
4 straight years K/9 > 6.5, FIP < 4.30, K/BB > 2.30
3 straight years FIP < 4.00

BJ 2013 32 Starts, 11 W, 154 K, .398 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

In a recent mock draft he was taken #286.

J

[joncarlos]

Last 3 years, his groundball rates were 49.4, 43.8, 47.3. None of those are great in Wrigley.

Last 3 years of xFIP: 3.71, 3.73, 3.79

And the Cubs won't have a great lineup behind him (defensively or offensively). So yes, a nice reliable $10-12 pick in an NL only league, but without a ton of upside.

[onejayhawk]

Doesnt a pick of #286 equate more to $5 SP?

J

[whalewang]

Doesnt a pick of #286 equate more to $5 SP?

J

In my 9-team NL only league I wouldn't go over couple bucks but I can't imagine any scenario where I'd want to roster him. He's a potential whip killer and will be weak in wins and SO/9.

[joncarlos]

In my 9-team NL only league I wouldn't go over couple bucks but I can't imagine any scenario where I'd want to roster him. He's a potential whip killer and will be weak in wins and SO/9.

Yeah, I guess there's a big difference between 9 and 12 teams. I'm looking at 190 innings, 11-12 wins, 1.30 WHIP, 4.00 ERA, 160ish Ks and that's worth a lot more than a couple bucks in my 12-team league.

[james33]

I've heard Edwin Jackson criticized for inconsistency within a season/unreliability, and wondered if that's really true, and also, if we should really care.

1) I'm not up on the stats as many of you are. Is there an accepted measure of a starting pitcher's inconsistency? Something like STDEV of FIP across starts for a given year? If there is, I wonder if Edwin Jackson is really more unreliable than most SPs.

2) Should we care? If a guy ends up with 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, should I really care if he accomplishes that through a large portion of middling outings vs. a mix of great outings and poor outings? If anything, I think I'd rather have the inconsistent guy, in hopes that he has a better chance at improving.

[joncarlos]

I've heard Edwin Jackson criticized for inconsistency within a season/unreliability, and wondered if that's really true, and also, if we should really care.

1) I'm not up on the stats as many of you are. Is there an accepted measure of a starting pitcher's inconsistency? Something like STDEV of FIP across starts for a given year? If there is, I wonder if Edwin Jackson is really more unreliable than most SPs.

2) Should we care? If a guy ends up with 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, should I really care if he accomplishes that through a large portion of middling outings vs. a mix of great outings and poor outings? If anything, I think I'd rather have the inconsistent guy, in hopes that he has a better chance at improving.

Shandler does a lot of work in this area. I don't have my Forecaster yet so I can't check. But a PQS4 or PQS5 start (they are scored on a scale of 0-5) is considered 'dominant' and a PQS of 0 or 1 is a "disaster." He then uses % of DOM starts and % of disaster starts to predict ERA.

Whether a guy who is 5,0,0,5,5,0 is better than a guy who is 3,2,3,2,3,2 is debatable. As you said, the guy with the 5s always has the possibility of throwing up more 5s and less 0s, making him better.

EJax has 6 game scores over 70 and 6 under 40: http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...&t=p&year=2012

By comparison, Zach Greinke had 8 over 70 and 6 under 40: http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...&t=p&year=2012

[BigJonEmpire]

15 PQS 4 or 5 and just 5 PQS 0 or 1 with 11 PQS 2 or 3.

So nearly 50 percent Dom to just around 15 percent DIS. Not too bad.

[cavebird]

I've heard Edwin Jackson criticized for inconsistency within a season/unreliability, and wondered if that's really true, and also, if we should really care.

1) I'm not up on the stats as many of you are. Is there an accepted measure of a starting pitcher's inconsistency? Something like STDEV of FIP across starts for a given year? If there is, I wonder if Edwin Jackson is really more unreliable than most SPs.

2) Should we care? If a guy ends up with 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, should I really care if he accomplishes that through a large portion of middling outings vs. a mix of great outings and poor outings? If anything, I think I'd rather have the inconsistent guy, in hopes that he has a better chance at improving.

I don't seriously do much head-to-head, but I imagine that the answer to the second question could be based on whether you are in a head-to-head league or a roto league.

[DMT]

I don't seriously do much head-to-head, but I imagine that the answer to the second question could be based on whether you are in a head-to-head league or a roto league.

Even in roto leagues, the problem with inconsistent guys (particularly ones who are marginal like EJax) is the temptation to bench them in favor of the hot hand. I would rather have a guy who I can plug in and forget about. Now, some owners have more patience than me so they're probably better managers of the inconsistent guys. So, I'd say the answer to that question would depend more on what kind of manager you are.

[DMT]

And the Cubs won't have a great lineup behind him (defensively or offensively). So yes, a nice reliable $10-12 pick in an NL only league, but without a ton of upside.

And yes, the Cubs will be terrible.

[onejayhawk]

And yes, the Cubs will be terrible.

Bad I give you, but this does not look like a 100 loss team.

J

[Gregg]

Bad I give you, but this does not look like a 100 loss team.

J

No but certainly no .500 team either.

Unless something else big happens they will lose about 90 give or take 1.