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2k11 Jason Bartlett

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  • #1

    2k11 Jason Bartlett

    What do you guys think of Bartlett this year. He may put up a goose egg in HRs playing in Petco, LOL, but how far, if at all, will he bounce back from last year? The general consensus has him bouncing back to somewhere between a .265-.275 BA, a few HRs, and around 20 SBs. As the leadoff hitter on a bad offensive team, is there potential for him to run more?

    I guess I'm optimistically thinking a .280-75-4-45-24 season from him.
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  • #2
    he's still going to get a bunch of games in Colorado and Arizona....
    "You know what's wrong with America? If I lovingly tongue a woman's nipple in a movie, it gets an "NC-17" rating, if I chop it off with a machete, it's an "R". That's what's wrong with America, man...."--Dennis Hopper

    "One should judge a man mainly from his depravities. Virtues can be faked. Depravities are real." -- Klaus Kinski

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    • #3
      In 2009 he had a ridiculous 26% line drive rate, leading to a .364 BABIP and .320 average. He also hit 14 HRs and stole 30 bags.

      In 2010 he had a still good 20.4% LD rate, but only a .299 BABIP and .254 AVG. He only hit 4 HRs and stole 11 bases.

      BABIP (and AVG) is certainly a function of LD% but there is also something important about how hard you hit the ball and how fast you run. So look at those HR/SB numbers from 2009 and 2010 again. It wasn't just the LD rate that crushed his BABIP and AVG.

      The good news is that his doubles and triples didn't fall off, and honestly I'm not sure how much tougher Petco really is for HRs than the Trop at this point. The .364 BABIP probably isn't coming back. But the good LD% and K rate say the AVG should come back some. And I know Petco crushes HRs but I don't think it's that bad for AVG. I could be wrong.

      So yes, I think he gets back into the .270s and he could probably steal 20-25 bags.

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