2K13: Jacoby Ellsbury.

[onejayhawk]

Here are the slash lines for the last two years, and the BJ projection:

2011: .321/.376/.552 732 PA
2012: .271/.313/.370 332 PA
2013: .294/.346/.436 668 PA

Which is most likely to resemble this season?

J

[Don Quixote]

I'll take the BJ projection, since it's the middle case.

[joncarlos]

He's a free agent after 2013, so he has a lot to play for, but he'll also have it hanging over his head all year if the Sawx don't extend him or trade him.

You might see a few less SB attempts if he's attempting to stay healthy. I think his upside is .305-18-70-105r-30sb and I don't like his odds of getting there.

His walk rate didn't totally collapse last year, and his K% and BABIP weren't bad either. It's just that the power evaporated. How much of it comes back is just as important to his value as his health.

[BigJonEmpire]

He's a free agent after 2013, so he has a lot to play for, but he'll also have it hanging over his head all year if the Sawx don't extend him or trade him.

You might see a few less SB attempts if he's attempting to stay healthy. I think his upside is .305-18-70-105r-30sb and I don't like his odds of getting there.

His walk rate didn't totally collapse last year, and his K% and BABIP weren't bad either. It's just that the power evaporated. How much of it comes back is just as important to his value as his health.

However unlikely it is he reaches it, would not his upside projection be closer to .300-25-80-100-40?

[joncarlos]

However unlikely it is he reaches it, would not his upside projection be closer to .300-25-80-100-40?

I just don't think 25 HRs is ever walking through the door again. I don't think 40 steals is, either. He can still come close to 20/30 and definitely has the ability to hit .300+ but I just don't think that 30 HR / 70 SB in his past is repeatable.

[DJBeasties]

Hardest player to project? I am just at a total loss on how to evaluate him. I'll probably just stay away in '13.

[TS Garp]

My projection (assuming he plays a full season) --

.290, 18 hr, 65 rbi, 95 runs, 30 sb

[DJBeasties]

My projection (assuming he plays a full season) --

.290, 18 hr, 65 rbi, 95 runs, 30 sb

That seems pretty fair and a good point to use imo.

[Erik]

Hardest player to project? I am just at a total loss on how to evaluate him. I'll probably just stay away in '13.

That is my feeling, too. Luckily, there is a guy in my main league that's a total fanboy, so I hopefully shouldn't have to price-enforce and assume the risks thereof.

[KnuckleBalls]

I'm a virgin, be gentle.

That is my feeling, too. Luckily, there is a guy in my main league that's a total fanboy, so I hopefully shouldn't have to price-enforce and assume the risks thereof.

The big IF is health. If the kid stays healthy he should be a lock for 90-100 runs 300 and 40+ sb. In a walk year, where he may get traded to the Angels, I take the chance on his upside. Am a little concerned by the quirky injuries and perceived milking of injuries but the possibility of him setting pujols and hamiltons table or even heading to the NL is enough for me.

[DJBeasties]

The big IF is health. If the kid stays healthy he should be a lock for 90-100 runs 300 and 40+ sb. In a walk year, where he may get traded to the Angels, I take the chance on his upside. Am a little concerned by the quirky injuries and perceived milking of injuries but the possibility of him setting pujols and hamiltons table or even heading to the NL is enough for me.

Hey, welcome! As a Sox fan, I hope you are right. I think Farrell being in Boston and not Bobby V is going to help guys not milk (if anyone was).

[KnuckleBalls]

Thanks DJ,
I've owned him a long time. Actually, my first Minors pick ever. I'm not saying he milks but it sure seems like a lot of teammates have that impression. I'm not a Sox fan I'm a Tribe fan so I don't watch them just follow my players. Is that the impression Sox fans have too? To me, his injuries are all hustle and freakish but I love the way he plays. I just hope his hustle doesn't turn into a Sizemore. If he stays healthy, no better leadoff guy in baseball. I

[Riff Raff]

Put him up for bidding early. Homers will over pay, if no one bites snag him with hopes of upside. Early is key - when people have money - you get an idea of their palate for risk.

[bryanbutler]

ellsbury with 5 SB tonight. 5. that's gotta be pretty rare...

[Flyman]

ellsbury with 5 SB tonight. 5. that's gotta be pretty rare...

First time since 2009. I have Ellsbury and CarGo on the same team...8 SBs last night from those two .