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NL Only 1B Discussion

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  • #1

    NL Only 1B Discussion

    Folks,

    Let's discuss NL only firstbasemen.
    A friendly topic.

    For 2011 only, how and why would you rank these 1B-eligible rakes?
    5x5, 11-team.
    My projected auction values (w/ league inflation) included.
    My rankings as follows.

    1. LaRoche ($24)
    2. Loney ($19)
    3. Pena ($18)
    4. Overbay ($11)
    5. Berkman ($11)
    6. Wallace ($8)
    7. Helton ($8)
    8. Miranda ($6)

    Also, where would you stick Wiggy in the above?

    I'm leaning Overbay with his price point and consistency even though he's still Lyle Overbay. I'm not sure where Carlos Pena would have to be at for me to even consider signing him. He's not really an option unless he's sitting there for $11-$12 I guess. Lots of questions with Wallace, Berkie, and Miranda. I've got a solid keeper set, and am trying to avoid taking on too much risk at the auction.

    As always, your thoughts and comments are always appreciated.

    Regards,
    Matty
    Tags: None
  • #2
    I have to think that Berkman will outproduce Overbay and if healthy can give Pena a run for his money. Laroche is the safest.
    After former Broncos quarterback Brian Griese sprained his ankle and said he was tripped on the stairs of his home by his golden retriever, Bella: “The dog stood up on his hind legs and gave him a push? You might want to get rid of that dog, or put him in the circus, one of the two.”

    Comment

    • #3
      Hammer,

      Fair enough.
      I don't hate Berkie by any stretch, it's just been awhile since he's been really productive. I agree, that even if he puts up 70% of old Berkman numbers, then he'll outproduce Overbay and push Pena.

      Given those dollar figures where would you tab Berkman?
      Or, maybe better yet, what's the most you would pay him on auction day and be able to walk away thinking you got a good deal?

      Also, any thoughts on the lower tier question marks like Wallace or Miranda? I'm skeptical of both, but am not against signing a cheap young masher in hopes of striking oil.

      Thanks again for your feedback.

      Regards,
      Matty

      Comment

      • #4
        Berkman scares me because he will be in the OF and hasnt been the picture of health of late but I would be pretty happy if I got him at $15 or less.

        Wallace is the better play in my eyes simply because Miranda has Nady, Branyab, Allen and Parra fighting for 2 spots. Wallace's road is less congested. I think Miranda is the better hitter at this point in their respective careers but age and opportunity are in Wallaxe's favor so I would go with him.
        After former Broncos quarterback Brian Griese sprained his ankle and said he was tripped on the stairs of his home by his golden retriever, Bella: “The dog stood up on his hind legs and gave him a push? You might want to get rid of that dog, or put him in the circus, one of the two.”

        Comment

        • #5
          eldiablo505,

          Aside from ranking Berkman too low (I have him at $11 and you infer a value ~$15) what else do you have issue with? Or, at least what else inside of these rankings prompted a "Yikes" response?

          Would you feel confident signing Berkie for $17?
          How would you distribute the $105 within the same player pool?

          I'm probably devaluing the high risk/rewards options too much here.

          Thanks again.

          Regards,
          Matty

          Comment

          • #6
            Asking Berkman to lumber around the outfield for a whole season really scares me. Even though I am optimistic about the Cards' chances of fixing his bat a little bit, I'll probably stay away.

            I really like Branyan as the sneaky play. I think he gets 300 AB and earns his $4 or whatever.

            Comment

            • #7
              Originally posted by MattySledge View Post
              Folks,

              Let's discuss NL only firstbasemen.
              A friendly topic.

              For 2011 only, how and why would you rank these 1B-eligible rakes?
              5x5, 11-team.
              My projected auction values (w/ league inflation) included.
              My rankings as follows.

              1. LaRoche ($24)
              2. Loney ($19)
              3. Pena ($18)
              4. Overbay ($11)
              5. Berkman ($11)
              6. Wallace ($8)
              7. Helton ($8)
              8. Miranda ($6)

              Also, where would you stick Wiggy in the above?

              I'm leaning Overbay with his price point and consistency even though he's still Lyle Overbay. I'm not sure where Carlos Pena would have to be at for me to even consider signing him. He's not really an option unless he's sitting there for $11-$12 I guess. Lots of questions with Wallace, Berkie, and Miranda. I've got a solid keeper set, and am trying to avoid taking on too much risk at the auction.

              As always, your thoughts and comments are always appreciated.

              Regards,
              Matty

              LaRoche is about $10 overpriced with out inflation. Loney is about $9. Pena is close to at value, but do you really want to take a chance on .227 BA? All three of these are huge gambles to make a profit for you. They are not consitant enough to feel good about.

              Playing time is ok to gamble with for youngsters but not so much at 1B (or corner) with the talent that is in the NL.

              Berkman is the safest gamble to make a profit at $11.

              If you were doing a total rebuild Miranda and Wallace might come into the conversation for one of the corner spots. Based on the other players that you listed I do not believe this to be the case.

              I wouldn't mind bidding one of the big names and have an $11 Berkman to go with him.

              If all of the big names are gone. I take Berkman, overpay for Pena power at Wrigley and hope he gets his BA up to .250.

              Comment

              • #8
                Great discussion, folks.

                I'm coming into this auction with my "studs" already on contract. Braun, Tulowitzki, and Kemp. It'll be the first auction in ten years that I don't go in targeting two or three big mashers, and filling in around them with whatever I can dig up.

                This year I'm looking to fill some gaps with low risk numbers.
                Pujols, Howard, and Fielder are out of the picture for me.
                The thread almost has me talked into pursuing Berkie up to the mid-late teens.
                I just have some huge durability concerns like many of you.
                I saw Overbay at 60/17/70 potential for a potential bargain.
                The only real thing going against Overbay at that price is that he's Lyle Overbay.

                Pena had nearly 500 ABs at .196 last year.
                Unsure if there's ever been a bigger anchor.
                Even with Braun/Tulo tugging.

                Again, appreciate the candid discourse.
                I usually just lurk here (was Siddhartha with less than 100 total posts at RJ), and get a kick out of reading your collective wisdom.

                I may start a similar thread discussing the mid-tier NL thirdbasemen as well.
                Dunno, this beer is going down quite well.

                Regards,
                Matty

                Comment

                • #9
                  More beer, please!!

                  If you're looking for certainty, Overbay at 11 is probably good. He won't lose much to that, probably won't profit much. Berkman and Wallace have the highest upside, but come with separate risk factors. Berkman's health, especially in the OF, is a big question mark, and Wallace could lose PT or just suck and then lose PT. OTOH, when the ball comes off Wallace's bat (admittedly, not often enough) it's electric.

                  I think Wiggy gets you 400 ABs with BA similar to last year.

                  I'd avoid Pena - man, he can single handedly sink your BA to the depths.
                  I'm just here for the baseball.

                  Comment

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