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Quite a disappointing 2010 for Zorilla after a breakout in 2009. Though for roto players, the extra steals made it hurt a little less.
2009: 599 PA, 297/405/543, 27 HR, 91 R, 91 RBI, 17 SB
2010: 655 PA, 238/346/353, 10 HR, 77 R, 75 RBI, 24 SB
2010 behind the numbers: 14% walk rate, 19.8% K rate, .273 BABIP, 1.16 G/F, 17.8% LD rate, 6.0% HR/FB
So, basically, he had pretty good luck in 2009 (.325 BABIP, 17.5% HR/FB rate) and then it all went as bad as it could go in the other direction in 2010. The question is, what is his real skill level?
In 2009 his LD% was 20% and his IFFB (pop-ups) was 5.2%
In 2010 his LD% was 17.8% and his IFFB was 10.8%
But at the same time, he had strong walk rates and a solid K rate in both seasons.
So it's pretty obvious that the truth lies between his two seasons. Bill James and the fangraphs fans are copying off of each other (.268-17HR-20sb for James, .269-18HR-20sb for the fans) but James has 85 runs and 77 RBI while the fans have 86 runs and 90 RBI (the fans' projections are based on where in the order they expect him to hit, I'm not sure how James does it).
I'm not sure I know hat the Rays' order will be, but it seems like Jaso will be #1 and Damon #2, with Zorilla down in the 5-6 range behind Manny and Eva. If he has Upton, Dan Johnson and S-Rod behind him, 85+ runs might be optimistic. But on the plus side, Zorilla might run more in that situation.
James gets the .268 AVG by projecting a BABIP of .300 (regressing to league average) and a slight decrease in K rate. I think that's probably reasonable. I'm a bit more optimistic about the AVG bouncing back than the power.
Maybe .275-18-90-77r-22sb?
2009: 599 PA, 297/405/543, 27 HR, 91 R, 91 RBI, 17 SB
2010: 655 PA, 238/346/353, 10 HR, 77 R, 75 RBI, 24 SB
2010 behind the numbers: 14% walk rate, 19.8% K rate, .273 BABIP, 1.16 G/F, 17.8% LD rate, 6.0% HR/FB
So, basically, he had pretty good luck in 2009 (.325 BABIP, 17.5% HR/FB rate) and then it all went as bad as it could go in the other direction in 2010. The question is, what is his real skill level?
In 2009 his LD% was 20% and his IFFB (pop-ups) was 5.2%
In 2010 his LD% was 17.8% and his IFFB was 10.8%
But at the same time, he had strong walk rates and a solid K rate in both seasons.
So it's pretty obvious that the truth lies between his two seasons. Bill James and the fangraphs fans are copying off of each other (.268-17HR-20sb for James, .269-18HR-20sb for the fans) but James has 85 runs and 77 RBI while the fans have 86 runs and 90 RBI (the fans' projections are based on where in the order they expect him to hit, I'm not sure how James does it).
I'm not sure I know hat the Rays' order will be, but it seems like Jaso will be #1 and Damon #2, with Zorilla down in the 5-6 range behind Manny and Eva. If he has Upton, Dan Johnson and S-Rod behind him, 85+ runs might be optimistic. But on the plus side, Zorilla might run more in that situation.
James gets the .268 AVG by projecting a BABIP of .300 (regressing to league average) and a slight decrease in K rate. I think that's probably reasonable. I'm a bit more optimistic about the AVG bouncing back than the power.
Maybe .275-18-90-77r-22sb?
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