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A look into how Hellickson escapes danger

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  • A look into how Hellickson escapes danger

    His FIP says he is not this good, but 400 innings into his career, the young narwhal continues to keep the luck dragons at bay.

  • #2
    some more thoughts on it from BP mechanics expert Doug Thornburn
    Just an observation, but part of the explanation for his success with runners on could be mechanical.

    I feel that Hellickson has a better delivery from the stretch because he brings more momentum with runners on base, which acts to lengthen his release point – which means later relative pitch-break, giving batters less time to identify the incoming pitch.

    Helix is slow to the plate from the windup [I gave him a 40 grade], but he often gets going with runners on [closer to a 50]. He uses a couple of strategies from the stretch, from a slide step to his standard leg lift, and though he does not get closer to the plate on the slide step (leg comes down too early), he does get noticeably closer to the plate when he uses a regular leg lift from the stretch due to the greater momentum. From what I have seen, he mostly relies on his regular leg lift from the stretch but mixes in the slide step to keep base-runners honest – so most of his pitches with runners on base have a deeper release point than his pitches from the windup.

    Why Helix doesn’t use his stretch-momentum from the windup is somewhat perplexing, but he probably feels like he can repeat his timing more consistently with the slower motion.
    some gifs of what he was talking about
    from the windup

    from the slidestep

    from stretch max lift

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    • #3
      Then wouldn't it behove him to just pitch from the stretch at all times?

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      • #4
        I expanded a bit on this piece this morning http://t.co/9vT0oaZC

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        • #5
          Good stuff, thanks. I haven't read the fangraghs piece yet, but I wonder if pitchers with a high edge percentage also tend towards higher walk rates.

          Have you considered how a fantasy owner might use edge percentage in his evaluations? If it does correlate with higher walk rates it might be worth the slightly higher whip for the higher LOB which would hopefully lead to better ERA.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by BigJonEmpire View Post

            Have you considered how a fantasy owner might use edge percentage in his evaluations?
            Zimmerman touched on that http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/ind...-fantasy-tool/

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            • #7
              Originally posted by BigJonEmpire View Post
              Good stuff, thanks. I haven't read the fangraghs piece yet, but I wonder if pitchers with a high edge percentage also tend towards higher walk rates.

              Have you considered how a fantasy owner might use edge percentage in his evaluations? If it does correlate with higher walk rates it might be worth the slightly higher whip for the higher LOB which would hopefully lead to better ERA.
              I was completely wrong. I'm not sure why but it actually seems that pitching on the edge of the zone correlates with lower walk rates.
              Last edited by BigJonEmpire; 01-21-2013, 12:23 PM.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by BigJonEmpire View Post
                I was completely wrong. I'm not sure why but it actually seems that pitching on the edge of the zone correlates with lower walk rates.
                entices the batter to swing and results in weaker contact. I'd be interested in the correlation to K's looking

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