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As I discussed in threads that became pretty popular the last four seasons, it’s a challenge to predict which player will have a huge breakout season, but one way to help narrow it down is to take a look at which players should see a marked increase in playing time over the previous season.
It’s very tough to predict a breakout otherwise -- except if you get lucky. And unwitting fantasy players land these guys every year because, quite frankly, they have to, and it typically isn’t due to any real factual analysis –did the guy in your league with Casey McGehee really know he was going to drive in 100 runs? As such, these breakouts are very hard to predict, because the past stats don’t indicate a major breakout or performance spike is on the horizon.
But it’s far easier to identify a player who simply will get much more playing time than he did last season, or has been moved into a higher profile role, and then it will appear as if he broke out – simply because he put up more numbers due to more at-bats or more important innings. And then you look like a genius. And that’s what this is all about, no?
While some were “no duhs,” last year we identified for breakout Drew Stubbs, Carlos Gonzalez, Casey McGehee, Wil Venable, Clay Buchholz, Wade Davis, Phil Hughes, Kelly Johnson, Juan Pierre, Ian Kennedy, Brett Myers, Daric Barton, Geovanny Soto, Brandon Morrow, Johnny Gomes, Colby Lewis, Logan Morrison, Austin Jackson, Mat Latos, Billy Wagner, Rickie Weeks, Shaun Marcum, Josh Hamilton & Ian Desmond among those who weren’t considered “no-brainer” breakouts.
In 2009 we nailed breakouts and performance spikes from Brett Gardner, Max Scherzer, Justin Upton, Adam Lind, Shin-Soo Choo, Alberto Callaspo, Denard Span, Russell Branyan, Kendry Morales, Juan Rivera, Nyjer Morgan, Aaron Hill, Chris Carpenter, Josh Johnson and Josh Willingham.
In ‘08 we hit paydirt with Mark Reynolds, Nate McLouth, Ryan Doumit, Lastings Milledge, Rick Ankiel, Carlos Quentin, Willy Taveras, Justin Duchscherer, Jair Jurrjens, Edinson Volquez, Jon Lester, Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, Andrew Sonnanstine and Matt Garza.
And finally in 2007 we hit with Chris Duncan, Adam Wainwright, Braden Looper, Kelly Johnson, Shane Victorino, Corey Hart, JJ Hardy and Ian Kinsler, among others.
At the very least, these players represented a greater value than you likely paid for them.
So below is a list, some of whom are complete no-brainers, of players who will receive much more playing time than they did in 2010. The qualifications are: the player had to have less than 375 ABs in 2010 to qualify, and pitchers should have had 110 IP or less, or are transitioning into different roles, thus increasing their value.
So without further ado, here is the list for 2K11:
UP AND COMERS
Michael Stanton, FLA –had a huge 2010 and is already being drafted in the Top 75 in most drafts. What’s left to say? He could become the next Adam Dunn as early as this season – if his hammy injury doesn’t continue into the season.
Pedro Alvarez, PIT – 30 HRs are already baked into his value, so you’d have to pay a premium to land Alvarez in redraft leagues.
Carlos Santana, CLE – Oye como va! Had a terrific rookie season wiped out by a collision at home plate, but Santana is the Indians most-feared young hitter since Manny Ramirez. Had a .406 OBP in those 150 ABs, which although a small sample size, is astounding for a rookie. Buy.
Lorenzo Cain, KC – good speed with some power, he put up Shane Victorino-type numbers in the minors. Traded to KC in the Grienke deal, he just has to beat out the corpse of Melky Cabrera to be a solid return on investment in 2011.
Brandon Allen, ARZ – hit almost 80 HRs the last three years, but Arizona keeps c--kblocking him with the likes of Xavier Nady, Russell Branyan and Juan Miranda. Will he get enough at-bats to matter in 2011? At 25 years old, he probably needs to get going soon though.
Tyler Colvin, CHC – broke out for 20 HRs after making the team out of spring training, but still isn’t slated for full-time at-bats with Kosuke Fukudome still in the way. Isn’t a big OBP guy, so can he make up for Fukudome’s on-base skills with his power bat?
Travis Wood, CIN – put up a fantastic 1.08 WHIP and a 3.3 K/BB ratio in 102 IP last season, and is currently penciled into the #5 spot in Cincy’s rotation. He could be a huge bargain on draft day.
Mitch Moreland, TEX – showed his stuff in the post-season, but Texas brought in Mike Napoli who may steal some of his playing time. With 9 HRs in just 145 ABs as a rookie, he could make Ranger fans forget about Chris Davis and Justin Smoak very quickly.
Josh Thole, NYM – doesn’t hit for much power, but is a solid contact hitter with a great batting eye. Don’t be shocked to see him emerge as a poor man’s Joe Mauer in 2011, batting close to .300 with a .350-.360 OBP.
Chris Johnson, HOU – came out of nowhere to hit 11 HRs and 52 RBIs in 350 ABs for an old and decrepit Astro team. Appears to be a better version of Kevin Kouzmanoff, but we’ll have to see how he handles a 162-game season.
Logan Morrison, FLA – a pure hitter with a great batting eye, Morrison had a remarkable 42-game on-base streak as a rookie, and ended the year with a .390 OBP. While Morrison surely can hit, fantasy leaguers need to know if he’ll add power or speed to his game (he did hit 24 HRs in the Sally League in ’07). He should be a solid fantasy #4 OFer who will help your team in OBP/BA and runs.
Dan Hudson, ARZ – had a sub 1.00 WHIP and a 2.45 ERA for the White Sox & Diamondbacks over 95 innings, but completely dominated NL batters once he arrived in Arizona (1.69 ERA & 0.84 WHIP). He was helped by a .217 BABIP, so fantasy players should hope for a mid 3.00 ERA and a solid 1.25 WHIP over a full season.
Michael Brantley, CLE – the junior Mickey Brantley (only us old fogies remember him) was solid if unspectacular in two attempts in the majors, and hasn’t shown much of the blazing speed he’s flashed in the minors yet (162 career minor league SBs). Cleveland needs him to take over from the miserable Kearns/Crowe mediocrity and establish himself. If he gets on base and flashes his wheels, he could be a solid late-draft player who will exceed his value.
Danny Valencia, MIN – stole the Twins 3B job with a .311/7/40 line in 299 ABs. Benefited from a .345 BABIP, but even if his BA comes down, he’s still should be a solid end-game option at 3B.
Sean Rodriguez, TB – had a robust 53 runs, 9 HRs, 13 SBs and 40 RBIs in just 343 ABs. If he gets 550 ABs, he could easily get close to 20-20.
Reid Brignac, TB – Rodriguez’ double play partner takes over for the departed Jason Bartlett full-time in 2011. Proved to be a competent run-producer with 45 RBIs in just 301 ABs, which is a pace for 82 RBIs with 550 ABs. I’m a buyer.
Peter Bourjos, LAA – appears to be the Angels starting CFer, and put up solid power/speed numbers in a 180 AB audition last year. If he plays a full year, could hit 15 HRs with 30 SBs. I’d look to grab him late in drafts.
Brett Wallace, HOU – didn’t impress in 144 ABs last season, so he’s probably on a short leash in 2011. Could be an interesting late round flyer, but don’t be surprised if he spends a majority of the year in AAA.
Carlos Carrasco, CLE – will probably land a spot in Cleveland’s ragged rotation, making him a solid breakout candidate. Showed good control last season in 44 IP (38 Ks to 14 BBs), but giving up 6 gopher balls is troublesome. Probably will be a better bet in 2012.
Chris Tillman, BAL – one of Baltimore’s top pitching prospects, Tillman has yet to shine at the major league level (5.61 ERA & a 1.54 WHIP and a whopping 24 HRA in 119 innings). A 1.8 HR/9 won’t cut it in the majors, so hold off until he starts being less generous with the longball.
Jake Arrieta, BAL – another stud Oriole prospect who allows a higher-than-average walk rate and has not succeeded in the majors, Arrieta will likely battle Tillman for the #5 rotation job.
2011 FRESHMAN CLASS
Tsuyoshi Nishioka, MIN – Japan’s David Beckham (or maybe Posh Spice?) will likely man 2B for the Twins. He led the Japanese league in batting last season with a .346 BA and in runs with 121, and he has good speed and knows how to take a walk. I think he’ll be a better bet than many mid-draft middle infielders.
Jeremy Hellickson, TB – pitched like a grizzled vet in his September call-up (1.10 WHIP, 4.4 K/BB ratio), he’s already cemented into TB’s rotation with the defection of Matt Garza. He dominated in the minors – he never had an ERA above 3.00 at any level – so will he continue his domination in the majors? Fantasy leaguers seem to think so.
Aroldis Chapman, CIN – hit a jaw-dropping 105 mph on the gun last year. A setup man for now, Chapman can easily overtake Francisco Cordero for the Reds closer job as soon as this season. Skills, not roles.
Desmond Jennings, TB – will he take over for Carl Crawford, or won’t he? Probably will take the job at some point in ’11 from Matt Joyce, but when?
Danny Espinosa, WAS – had 6 HRs in just over 100 ABs in his September call-up, and should be the Nats’ everyday SS in ’11. He showed good power & speed in the minors. He’s a great sleeper candidate.
Mike Moustakas, KC – had a boffo year in 2010 at AA and AAA, slugging 36 HRs with 124 RBIs and a heady .322 BA. With Mike Aviles, Wilson Betemit and Pedro Feliz just keeping the hot corner warm for his arrival, Moose should be expected to start his contribution to KC probably around the 1st week of June.
Brent Morel, CWS – in a competition with the mediocre Mark Teahen for the Pale Sox 3B job, Morel is a power/speed type who could contribute 12 HRs and 15 SBs to your cause if he takes the job.
Chris Sale, CWS – the first of the class of 2010 to make the majors, Sale’s status depends largely on Jake Peavy and Matt Thornton. He’ll likely end up in the bullpen as a set-up guy, but his potential is real. If the ChiSox decide to go with youth, Sale could end up as closer as soon as this season.
Ivan Nova, NYY - -has a chance to be NYY’s #4 or #5 starter, which should net him a few wins if nothing else.
JP Arencibia, TOR – had a 2-HR day in his major league debut and then did nothing the rest of the way before heading back to AAA. Hit 80 HRs his last three seasons in the minors. Comes into spring training having added 9 lbs. of muscle and with the departure of John Buck (and then Mike Napoli), he could get the lion’s share of ABs behind the dish.
Kyle Drabek, TOR – held his own in a cup of coffee last season, but the son of former NL Cy Young Award winner Doug Drabek will likely land the Jays’ #4 or #5 spot. If he keeps the walks down, he could be a solid fantasy starter.
Freddie Freeman, ATL – Freeman is being handed the Brave 1B job, and has a good stick with decent power. Will the power translate into the majors, or will he be a James Loney-type? A solid late round gamble.
Mike Minor, ATL – flamethrower averaged a sick 10.5 K/9 in the minors, he then put up a 9.5 K/9 with an awesome 3.9 K/BB rate in 40 MLB innings. He’ll likely take the Braves #5 rotation spot. His solid K/BB rate makes him a good gamble for 2011.
Matt Dominguez, FLA – he’s just 21 and hit .247 & .252 his last two minor league seasons (A & AA ball). Probably not ready for the bigs yet.
Kenley Jansen, LA– blew away major leaguers in a 27 IP cup o’joe, but probably will only be a set-up man this season. If the Dodgers lose faith (or deal) Broxton, maybe Jansen gets save chances, but it’s too hard to say at this point. He still should be one of the better middle relievers in '11.
Alexi Ogando, TEX – blew through the ranks once he was eligible to play in the US (he had been caught in a human trafficking ring in the DR and was denied a US visa for five years). He has a remarkable 1.37 career ERA in the minors (111 IP) and continued that trend with a 1.30 ERA in 42 MLB innings. If he gets stretched out to start, I’d take a chance on a guy who thinks a 2.00 ERA is high!
Domonic Brown, PHI – slated to take Jayson Werth’s spot sooner rather than later, Brown tore up the minors to the tune of 20 HRs and 17 SBs in just 93 games before getting a 60-AB audition for the Phils in August. Will the Phils use Ben Francisco, or will Brown prove to be the man in charge?
ON THE ROAD AGAIN
Manny Ramirez, TB –Mannywood moves to the gulf coast after an injury-plagued year that saw him land on the DL three separate times and then claimed on waivers by the White Sox, where he was largely ineffective in 30 games. But he still hit .298/.402 for the season, so we know he can still hit. But will he “play” for just $2m?
Jack Cust, SEA – had a solid year for Oakland (.272/.391/50/13/52 in 349 ABs), yet he’s sitting on draft boards well past #350. If Russell Branyan can hit HRs in Seattle, so can Cust. This late round filler can easily add 20 HRs and 80 RBIs to your totals.
Bill Hall, HOU – signing on to become Houston’s everyday second sacker drew snickers, but he did put up 18 HRs in just 344 ABs last season, and we know he’s capable of a 30+ HR year -- just be prepared for a sub-.250 BA. And he’s only 31, even if it seems like he’s been around for decades.
Edwin Encarnacion, TOR – baseball’s Johnny Cash, Encarnacion’s been everywhere: he went from Cincy to Toronto to Opalocka (just kidding) to Oakland and back to Toronto in just a few months. He bounced back from a lousy 2009 to hit 21 HRs in just 344 ABs, but will he get the playing time in crowded Toronto? He’s worth a late-round flier.
Russell Martin, NYY – remember when he was the #1 overall fantasy catcher? Seems laughable today, but that was as recently as 2008! If he can hit enough to fend off Jesus Montero, he could be a nice fantasy pickup had very late in your draft. His SB totals have slid badly, but how many other catchers have a shot a double digit steals and HRs?
Magglio Ordonez, DET – despite the injuries, the loss of power, and the effects of age, Maggs still continues to hit .300 year-in, year-out. It’s hard to believe he’s a .312 career hitter. Even at age 37, he’s still capable of a .300/20/100 year (as was his pace last season). As long as he can stay healthy, he’ll out-produce his cost.
Brad Hawpe, SD – fell off a cliff in ’10, and after being dumped by Colorado after five solid seasons, couldn’t pry his fanny off Tampa Bay’s bench. Either he stays the shade of his former self in SD, or he’ll be out of the majors by the end of ’11. I’m betting on the former.
Jenrry Mejia/Dillon Gee, NYM – repeat after me – the Mets rotation currently is made up of Pelfrey, Niese, Dickey, Chris Young & Chris Capuano. If one of these two prospects can’t crack this rotation, well, the Mets have bigger problems than we already know.
BLOOM’S OFF THE ROSE
Alex Gordon, KC – he’s still a rock star in KC, but has gone from the next coming of The Beatles to Peter Lemongello in the eyes of fantasy players. Has gone downhill from his mediocre first couple of seasons, and while he’s just 27, this is likely his last straw to become the breakout star many thought of him as. I’m still a groupie.
James McDonald, PIT – had a mediocre ’09 before being exiled to Pittsburgh in a mid-season trade, but then began to pitch like the top prospect he once was (61 Ks in 64 IP in PIT). Heck, with stats like that he’ll be the Bucs’ #1 starter by May.
Cameron Maybin, SD – maybe the third time’s the charm for this former phenom as he puts on his 3rd uniform in five seasons. Had 8 HRs and 9 SBs in 291 ABs last season, and maybe those SB totals go up in San Diego. Is this the year he finally breaks out?
Chris Iannetta, COL – hit rock bottom last year as he joined the sub-.200 club. Is a career .234 hitter over 1,084 ABs, so he is what he is – but he does have solid pop and can take a walk (he had a .390 OBP in ’08). Only has Jose Morales to steal playing time, so Iannetta should be able to get 450 ABs with 20+ HR potential. Probably a better fit in OBP leagues.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, BOS – another failed catching prospect, Salty is now on his third major league team in four years. May never be the next coming of Brian McCann, but at age 26, I’m not ready to write him off just yet. But he better start motivating quickly.
Matt Joyce, TB – will Joyce finally get his shot or will uber-rookie Desmond Jennings take command? Joyce has good power – he has 25 HRs in 490 career ABs, but that comes equipped with a .243 BA. Joyce should win the job out of spring training, but if his BA hovers around his career average, don’t be surprised to see Jennings in early summer.
Justin Smoak, SEA – can a bad rookie year and a move to an offensively challenged team in a cavernous park smoke Smoak’s value? He’s not the Texas glamour boy any longer, but he should get the lion’s share of ABs for Seattle’s first baggers. A second straight sub-.220 year may bring visions of Chris Davis to fantasy leaguers, though.
Michael Saunders, SEA – just 24 years old, but has a career .214 BA in 411 ABs. Has decent power and speed, but Milton Bradley also looms on the bench. If he continues to hit that low, he’ll have another lost year for fantasy players. Tread carefully.
PAID THEIR DUES
Seth Smith, COL – sat behind Ryan Spilborghs and Brad Hawpe the last two seasons, and finally appears to have earned a starting job. Smith put up similar power/production numbers over a similar number of at-bats in 2009 and 2010, but his BA & OBP plunged last season and he ended with a 96 OPS+, which is enough to get his ass parked back on the bench. Worth a gamble, and should easily stroke 20 HRs with 75 RBIs.
Chris Getz, KC – his value will be largely determined by where Mike Aviles plays, but if he gets the majority of ABs at 2B, Getz can get 30+ SBs.
Will Rhymes, DET – is being given a chance to win the 2B job at the age of 28. Hit .304 in 191 ABs last year, but didn’t exhibit any of his 20 SB speed. He could be a solid end-game flyer if you’re looking for SBs.
Kila Ka’Aihue, KC – finally elevated to the majors and showed good pop with 8 HRs in 180 ABs. He’s the front-runner for the Royals 1B job, so if he gets 500 ABs, his power numbers could push him into the top tier of power hitters (he hit 37 HRs at two MiLB stops in ’08).
Jed Lowrie, BOS – had 9 HRs in just 171 ABs last year, and had 46 RBIs in 260 ABs in ’08, yet Boston continues to use the unexciting Marco Scutaro. If he gets his chance, Lowrie could be one of the better finds at the middle infield spot in 2011.
Alexi Casilla, MIN– received a smattering of playing time the last five seasons, but finally has emerged as a starter for the Twins. He had 50 SBs in back to back minor league years, so he’s a sneaky source of speed at the middle infield spot to be had late in drafts. Take a flyer.
Juan Miranda, ARZ – the soon to be 28-year old stayed at AAA for a number of years, where he showed good power and a nice batting eye. Is in the mix for the D’back 1B job, but he could be a classic AAAA player. He’ll only be drafted in the deepest of leagues, so monitor his early season progress for a FAAB bid.
Dan Johnson, TB – the 32-year old journeyman appears to be the front-runner for the Rays’ 1B job. He once hit 18 HRs and had 63 RBIs in 416 ABs, and also showed good plate patience with 72 BBs vs. 77 Ks. Clubbed 37 HRs between AAA and the majors last year, but like Miranda above, DJ may have just enough holes in his swing to make him an AAAA player.
Ryan Raburn, DET – the soon to be 30-year old finally gets a crack at a starting job after two years of solid power numbers. Raburn had a monster August/September, hitting 13 HRs with 40 RBIs over that period. Has his time come? Added benefit: has 2B eligibility in leagues with 15-game or less requirements.
Phil Coke, DET – gets his wish to move into the rotation in ’11, and the Tigers cleared the way by dealing Mr. Nearly Perfect to Arizona. He has a career 1.19 WHIP over 139 IP, so he’s been effective. Will fantasy players say “Coke is it”?
THE HURT LOCKER
Josh Willingham, OAK – was having a big year when his annual injury struck (.380 OBP, 16 HRs, 8 SBs). Is an undervalued OBP machine when healthy.
Kevin Youkilis/Dustin Pedroia, BOS – Pedroia and Youk should be as good as new, and Youk comes equipped with a new position in 2011.
Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS – after a frustrating season for Red Sox fans and Ellsbury owners alike, he said in February he’s ready to go “full bore.” Ellsbury stole 70 bases in 2009, so don’t overlook him if he seems fine in spring training games.
Jimmy Rollins, PHI – J-Roll has slid from a Top 5 pick to a begrudging pick as a 3rd rounder in most leagues. He’s probably on many “Do Not Touch” lists, yet if healthy, he should get his customary huge amount of PAs, elevating his value.
Jason Bay, NYM – Jay Bay was a fantasy Hindenburg in 2010……and then came the concussion, mercifully putting him out of his owners’ misery. We do have past NYM underperformance history to look to, however: David Wright suffered through a power outage in ’09, but rebounded well in ’10. Don’t write him off.
Chris Coghlan, FLA – got kneecapped in a goofy pie throwing episode, Coghlan just edged out Kendry Morales for most embarrassing injury of 2010. The ’09 NL Rookie of the Year will attempt to return to form after what was shaping up to be a very mediocre season.
David DeJesus, OAK – gets a new start in Oakland, where he apparently was a Billy Beane mancrush for years (who knew?). Was having his typical solid BA/little else year when he succumbed to injury, making him a solid 5th OFer/bench player in a deep mixed league if healthy.
JJ Hardy, BAL – had his second consecutive injury-plagued season, but recovered some value with a .268 BA. But where did the power go? If he’s healthy, he’s capable of .270-20-70, which would put him in the upper tier of a weak SS crop.
Geovanny Soto, CHC –after a disastrous sophomore campaign, he was having a nice bounceback season (.280/17/53 in just 322 ABs ) until it was derailed by a shoulder injury. He’s providing good value in drafts.
Xavier Nady, ARZ – can the X-Man come back from yet another injury-wracked year? He had 25 HRs and 97 RBIs as recently as 2008, yet he’s going undrafted in most leagues after two injury-wrecked years. Has a golden opportunity to play nearly every day in Arizona – so why is no one biting?
Miguel Montero, ARZ – fantasy players had high hopes for Montero after a breakout 2009, but it was not to be after a knee injury KO’d him for two months. His was producing at a similar pace however, so if healthy, he should be fine.
Justin Morneau, MIN –Morneau was lighting the baseball world aflame when a concussion ended his season. Can he return to his MVP-self? The problem with concussions is some players are prone to them, and you just never know. If you can get him at a discount, he’ll be worth the cost.
Nate McLouth, ATL – it amazes me that Pittsburgh market-timed the apex of McLouth’s value perfectly, but bungled the return on the deal with Atlanta. His BA plunged past the Mendoza line (.190 in 242 ABs), and this former All-Star wallowed in the minors for most of the summer. But the CFer job is still his, and supposedly he’s re-worked his swing, so maybe McLouth will return to fantasy consciousness.
David Freese, STL – was having a solid rookie year (.296/.352) when he was lost for the season. He was on pace for nearly 80 RBIs had he played a full season, and he’s also entering his age 27 year.
Brian Roberts, BAL – couldn’t shake his back woes and ended up with just 230 ABs after not playing unti the All-Star Break. Still, he showed he could still run, amassing 12 SBs (which paces him for 30+ if he plays his usually customary full season).
Kendry Morales, LAA – was having a similar year to his 2009 breakout when he shattered his ankle celebrating a grand slam. As long as he’s healthy, he should be fine.
Grady Sizemore, CLE – went from an all-purpose threat to injury prone in two seasons, thanks to micro fractures in his knee. The Indians already are saying he may miss the first few weeks of the year, and he still hasn’t been cleared for any baseball activities, so I’d be very, very hesitant in using a lot of resources on him. The 134 run, 28 HR, 22 SB campaign of 2006 seems so long ago.
Justin Duchscherer, BAL – here we go again: his hip is already hurting. Although he can be very effective when he actually does pitch (career 3.13 ERA & 1.14 WHIP), obviously you should have a backup plan (his name should not rhyme with Schmedard) in the event he does make it onto your team.
Daniel Murphy, NYM – with the Mets 2B job up for grabs, Murphy has a puncher’s chance of winning the job -- assuming he’s not a butcher in the field, of course. Having missed all of 2010, Murphy’s ’09 stats (.266/12/63) would be far more palatable to fantasy players in the middle infield than in the outfield, so monitor this situation for a potential late-draft value play.
Carlos Beltran, NYM –By combining his ’09 &’10 seasons, we get an idea of what a full year would look like for Beltran in CitiField, and it’s ain’t bad: .295/71/17/75/14. But will Beltran make it through a full year? Two words are in favor of this: contract year.
Chris Young, NYM – another Met reclamation project, Young moves from one great pitcher’s park to another. But between his frequent injuries and his high walk totals, even when he’s effective he doesn’t pitch a whole lot (his seasonal inning high is 179). He could help your team in spurts, but don’t expect too much.
Edinson Volquez, CIN –Volquez has spent parts of five seasons in the majors, and his career stats are bizarre – four seasons of 62 or less IP, and one with 196. Now he’s supposedly healthy but has visa problems *sigh*. He strikes out a ton, but also walks a ton. Is he worth the injury headache? I wouldn’t go out of my way to land the guy.
Jeff Francis, KC – showed promise in Colorado, winning as many as 17 games in ’07 – but he was awful in ’08, missed all of ’09 and parts of ’10, and when he did show up last season, continued his awfulness. Sounds like he’ll fit right in with Kansas City.
Joe Nathan, MIN – missed all of ’10 with Tommy John surgery, and then the Twins brought in Matt Capps off waivers, who promptly saved 42 games. Nathan saw game action for the first time on Tuesday, so if you do draft Nathan, make 100% sure you also grab Capps later on.
Erik Bedard, SEA – he says he’s healthy, and he’s back in the pitching-haven of Seattle, so what do we make of Bedard? Well, we know he can pitch – he has a career 8.8 K/9 rate, and had a stellar, stats-supported season in ’07 (13-5, 3.16 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 221 Ks). I’d take a shot on him one last time.
Brandon Webb, TEX – another injury-prone pitcher who now hasn’t pitched in two full seasons, Webb is just starting to throw with any real velocity. Next will come game action, but who knows if he’s 100% back, even if he says he’s healthy? He’s not worth much more than a Dollar Day bid or a late round draft pick.
Brad Penny, DET – Penny has made it through six of his 11 major league seasons uninjured, so for those of you scoring at home, that’s barely better than 50-50. What’s more troubling is the fact he doesn’t strike anyone out anymore (he’s had a 5.7 K/9 rate in each of the last two seasons). But boy, does he date some hotties!
Jordan Zimmermann, WAS – the young flamethrower will be on an innings limit, so expect him to b shut down by September (if he makes it that far). He could provide solid performance in the time he’s pitching though, so he’s worth a small price for 2011.
NEW CLOSERS
Drew Storen, WAS – has been a closer throughout his collegiate and minor league career, so we know he has the head for the job. And since WAS drafted him as a closer, we know he’ll have little competition as long as he’s pitching well. I can foresee 30+ saves for him in ’11.
Joel Hanrahan, PIT – that pederast Hanrahan won the job again over Evan Meek, but before we ring up 30+ saves for him, let’s note he has 20 career saves and a career 1.49 WHIP. But wow: 100 Ks in 69 IP last season, and a 10.3 K/9 career rate! If he can continue to not purposely put guys on base, he could have a solid year.
Craig Kimbrel/Jonny Venters, ATL – one of these two youngsters will likely take the job, and both had huge rookie seasons. But they’ve combined for two career saves, so will either emerge as a closer? Will both?
JJ Putz, ARZ – had one of the greatest seasons by a closer in 2007 (1.38 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 40 Sv), but experienced shoulder troubles and quickly was dropped from the ranks. After two injury-plagued seasons as a setup guy where he was a shadow of his former self, Putz had a huge bounceback year last season – 2.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 10.8 K/9. As long as he can remain healthy, he should be able to return to form as the D’Back closer.
Frank Francisco, TOR – replaced by Neftali Feliz in Texas, Francisco nevertheless had a solid year as his primary set-up guy. Moves to Toronto where he’s apparently the front-runner for the job, but note they also signed Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch. If you’re buying Francisco, make sure to take on at least one of those guys as well.
Kyle Farnsworth/Jake McGee, TB – the young upstart McGee says he wants to be the closer, but old fart Farnsworth (1 save since 2006) may block him temporarily. We all know what Farnsworth can and can’t do – his seasonal high in saves is just 16 – so why shouldn’t TB take the Neftali Feliz path and just give McGee the job? Of course, McGee was a starter in the minors, and doesn’t have closing experience. But, oooh, those K/9 rates. I’d watch the spring training battle, but would edge towards McGee getting the lion’s share of the chances.
Matt Thornton, CWS – Will the 34-year old get his chance to close? Or will young Chris Sale end his dream? Thornton obviously has the goods – 2.70 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 11.0 K/9 the last three seasons – but he’s also a free agent at year’s end. Does it make more sense to groom a cheap closer for the next five years, or create one and then pay him like one? My gut says Sale will get the job at some point this season, especially if the White Sox fall out of the race.
Brandon League, SEA – David Aardsma is hurt and will miss potentially all of April, which bodes well for League’s chances to keep the job longer-term. His K/9 rate plunged in ’10 to 6.4, down from 9.2 the year before. But he was still solid overall. At the very least, he’ll get you some early season saves at a dirt cheap price.
It’s very tough to predict a breakout otherwise -- except if you get lucky. And unwitting fantasy players land these guys every year because, quite frankly, they have to, and it typically isn’t due to any real factual analysis –did the guy in your league with Casey McGehee really know he was going to drive in 100 runs? As such, these breakouts are very hard to predict, because the past stats don’t indicate a major breakout or performance spike is on the horizon.
But it’s far easier to identify a player who simply will get much more playing time than he did last season, or has been moved into a higher profile role, and then it will appear as if he broke out – simply because he put up more numbers due to more at-bats or more important innings. And then you look like a genius. And that’s what this is all about, no?
While some were “no duhs,” last year we identified for breakout Drew Stubbs, Carlos Gonzalez, Casey McGehee, Wil Venable, Clay Buchholz, Wade Davis, Phil Hughes, Kelly Johnson, Juan Pierre, Ian Kennedy, Brett Myers, Daric Barton, Geovanny Soto, Brandon Morrow, Johnny Gomes, Colby Lewis, Logan Morrison, Austin Jackson, Mat Latos, Billy Wagner, Rickie Weeks, Shaun Marcum, Josh Hamilton & Ian Desmond among those who weren’t considered “no-brainer” breakouts.
In 2009 we nailed breakouts and performance spikes from Brett Gardner, Max Scherzer, Justin Upton, Adam Lind, Shin-Soo Choo, Alberto Callaspo, Denard Span, Russell Branyan, Kendry Morales, Juan Rivera, Nyjer Morgan, Aaron Hill, Chris Carpenter, Josh Johnson and Josh Willingham.
In ‘08 we hit paydirt with Mark Reynolds, Nate McLouth, Ryan Doumit, Lastings Milledge, Rick Ankiel, Carlos Quentin, Willy Taveras, Justin Duchscherer, Jair Jurrjens, Edinson Volquez, Jon Lester, Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, Andrew Sonnanstine and Matt Garza.
And finally in 2007 we hit with Chris Duncan, Adam Wainwright, Braden Looper, Kelly Johnson, Shane Victorino, Corey Hart, JJ Hardy and Ian Kinsler, among others.
At the very least, these players represented a greater value than you likely paid for them.
So below is a list, some of whom are complete no-brainers, of players who will receive much more playing time than they did in 2010. The qualifications are: the player had to have less than 375 ABs in 2010 to qualify, and pitchers should have had 110 IP or less, or are transitioning into different roles, thus increasing their value.
So without further ado, here is the list for 2K11:
UP AND COMERS
Michael Stanton, FLA –had a huge 2010 and is already being drafted in the Top 75 in most drafts. What’s left to say? He could become the next Adam Dunn as early as this season – if his hammy injury doesn’t continue into the season.
Pedro Alvarez, PIT – 30 HRs are already baked into his value, so you’d have to pay a premium to land Alvarez in redraft leagues.
Carlos Santana, CLE – Oye como va! Had a terrific rookie season wiped out by a collision at home plate, but Santana is the Indians most-feared young hitter since Manny Ramirez. Had a .406 OBP in those 150 ABs, which although a small sample size, is astounding for a rookie. Buy.
Lorenzo Cain, KC – good speed with some power, he put up Shane Victorino-type numbers in the minors. Traded to KC in the Grienke deal, he just has to beat out the corpse of Melky Cabrera to be a solid return on investment in 2011.
Brandon Allen, ARZ – hit almost 80 HRs the last three years, but Arizona keeps c--kblocking him with the likes of Xavier Nady, Russell Branyan and Juan Miranda. Will he get enough at-bats to matter in 2011? At 25 years old, he probably needs to get going soon though.
Tyler Colvin, CHC – broke out for 20 HRs after making the team out of spring training, but still isn’t slated for full-time at-bats with Kosuke Fukudome still in the way. Isn’t a big OBP guy, so can he make up for Fukudome’s on-base skills with his power bat?
Travis Wood, CIN – put up a fantastic 1.08 WHIP and a 3.3 K/BB ratio in 102 IP last season, and is currently penciled into the #5 spot in Cincy’s rotation. He could be a huge bargain on draft day.
Mitch Moreland, TEX – showed his stuff in the post-season, but Texas brought in Mike Napoli who may steal some of his playing time. With 9 HRs in just 145 ABs as a rookie, he could make Ranger fans forget about Chris Davis and Justin Smoak very quickly.
Josh Thole, NYM – doesn’t hit for much power, but is a solid contact hitter with a great batting eye. Don’t be shocked to see him emerge as a poor man’s Joe Mauer in 2011, batting close to .300 with a .350-.360 OBP.
Chris Johnson, HOU – came out of nowhere to hit 11 HRs and 52 RBIs in 350 ABs for an old and decrepit Astro team. Appears to be a better version of Kevin Kouzmanoff, but we’ll have to see how he handles a 162-game season.
Logan Morrison, FLA – a pure hitter with a great batting eye, Morrison had a remarkable 42-game on-base streak as a rookie, and ended the year with a .390 OBP. While Morrison surely can hit, fantasy leaguers need to know if he’ll add power or speed to his game (he did hit 24 HRs in the Sally League in ’07). He should be a solid fantasy #4 OFer who will help your team in OBP/BA and runs.
Dan Hudson, ARZ – had a sub 1.00 WHIP and a 2.45 ERA for the White Sox & Diamondbacks over 95 innings, but completely dominated NL batters once he arrived in Arizona (1.69 ERA & 0.84 WHIP). He was helped by a .217 BABIP, so fantasy players should hope for a mid 3.00 ERA and a solid 1.25 WHIP over a full season.
Michael Brantley, CLE – the junior Mickey Brantley (only us old fogies remember him) was solid if unspectacular in two attempts in the majors, and hasn’t shown much of the blazing speed he’s flashed in the minors yet (162 career minor league SBs). Cleveland needs him to take over from the miserable Kearns/Crowe mediocrity and establish himself. If he gets on base and flashes his wheels, he could be a solid late-draft player who will exceed his value.
Danny Valencia, MIN – stole the Twins 3B job with a .311/7/40 line in 299 ABs. Benefited from a .345 BABIP, but even if his BA comes down, he’s still should be a solid end-game option at 3B.
Sean Rodriguez, TB – had a robust 53 runs, 9 HRs, 13 SBs and 40 RBIs in just 343 ABs. If he gets 550 ABs, he could easily get close to 20-20.
Reid Brignac, TB – Rodriguez’ double play partner takes over for the departed Jason Bartlett full-time in 2011. Proved to be a competent run-producer with 45 RBIs in just 301 ABs, which is a pace for 82 RBIs with 550 ABs. I’m a buyer.
Peter Bourjos, LAA – appears to be the Angels starting CFer, and put up solid power/speed numbers in a 180 AB audition last year. If he plays a full year, could hit 15 HRs with 30 SBs. I’d look to grab him late in drafts.
Brett Wallace, HOU – didn’t impress in 144 ABs last season, so he’s probably on a short leash in 2011. Could be an interesting late round flyer, but don’t be surprised if he spends a majority of the year in AAA.
Carlos Carrasco, CLE – will probably land a spot in Cleveland’s ragged rotation, making him a solid breakout candidate. Showed good control last season in 44 IP (38 Ks to 14 BBs), but giving up 6 gopher balls is troublesome. Probably will be a better bet in 2012.
Chris Tillman, BAL – one of Baltimore’s top pitching prospects, Tillman has yet to shine at the major league level (5.61 ERA & a 1.54 WHIP and a whopping 24 HRA in 119 innings). A 1.8 HR/9 won’t cut it in the majors, so hold off until he starts being less generous with the longball.
Jake Arrieta, BAL – another stud Oriole prospect who allows a higher-than-average walk rate and has not succeeded in the majors, Arrieta will likely battle Tillman for the #5 rotation job.
2011 FRESHMAN CLASS
Tsuyoshi Nishioka, MIN – Japan’s David Beckham (or maybe Posh Spice?) will likely man 2B for the Twins. He led the Japanese league in batting last season with a .346 BA and in runs with 121, and he has good speed and knows how to take a walk. I think he’ll be a better bet than many mid-draft middle infielders.
Jeremy Hellickson, TB – pitched like a grizzled vet in his September call-up (1.10 WHIP, 4.4 K/BB ratio), he’s already cemented into TB’s rotation with the defection of Matt Garza. He dominated in the minors – he never had an ERA above 3.00 at any level – so will he continue his domination in the majors? Fantasy leaguers seem to think so.
Aroldis Chapman, CIN – hit a jaw-dropping 105 mph on the gun last year. A setup man for now, Chapman can easily overtake Francisco Cordero for the Reds closer job as soon as this season. Skills, not roles.
Desmond Jennings, TB – will he take over for Carl Crawford, or won’t he? Probably will take the job at some point in ’11 from Matt Joyce, but when?
Danny Espinosa, WAS – had 6 HRs in just over 100 ABs in his September call-up, and should be the Nats’ everyday SS in ’11. He showed good power & speed in the minors. He’s a great sleeper candidate.
Mike Moustakas, KC – had a boffo year in 2010 at AA and AAA, slugging 36 HRs with 124 RBIs and a heady .322 BA. With Mike Aviles, Wilson Betemit and Pedro Feliz just keeping the hot corner warm for his arrival, Moose should be expected to start his contribution to KC probably around the 1st week of June.
Brent Morel, CWS – in a competition with the mediocre Mark Teahen for the Pale Sox 3B job, Morel is a power/speed type who could contribute 12 HRs and 15 SBs to your cause if he takes the job.
Chris Sale, CWS – the first of the class of 2010 to make the majors, Sale’s status depends largely on Jake Peavy and Matt Thornton. He’ll likely end up in the bullpen as a set-up guy, but his potential is real. If the ChiSox decide to go with youth, Sale could end up as closer as soon as this season.
Ivan Nova, NYY - -has a chance to be NYY’s #4 or #5 starter, which should net him a few wins if nothing else.
JP Arencibia, TOR – had a 2-HR day in his major league debut and then did nothing the rest of the way before heading back to AAA. Hit 80 HRs his last three seasons in the minors. Comes into spring training having added 9 lbs. of muscle and with the departure of John Buck (and then Mike Napoli), he could get the lion’s share of ABs behind the dish.
Kyle Drabek, TOR – held his own in a cup of coffee last season, but the son of former NL Cy Young Award winner Doug Drabek will likely land the Jays’ #4 or #5 spot. If he keeps the walks down, he could be a solid fantasy starter.
Freddie Freeman, ATL – Freeman is being handed the Brave 1B job, and has a good stick with decent power. Will the power translate into the majors, or will he be a James Loney-type? A solid late round gamble.
Mike Minor, ATL – flamethrower averaged a sick 10.5 K/9 in the minors, he then put up a 9.5 K/9 with an awesome 3.9 K/BB rate in 40 MLB innings. He’ll likely take the Braves #5 rotation spot. His solid K/BB rate makes him a good gamble for 2011.
Matt Dominguez, FLA – he’s just 21 and hit .247 & .252 his last two minor league seasons (A & AA ball). Probably not ready for the bigs yet.
Kenley Jansen, LA– blew away major leaguers in a 27 IP cup o’joe, but probably will only be a set-up man this season. If the Dodgers lose faith (or deal) Broxton, maybe Jansen gets save chances, but it’s too hard to say at this point. He still should be one of the better middle relievers in '11.
Alexi Ogando, TEX – blew through the ranks once he was eligible to play in the US (he had been caught in a human trafficking ring in the DR and was denied a US visa for five years). He has a remarkable 1.37 career ERA in the minors (111 IP) and continued that trend with a 1.30 ERA in 42 MLB innings. If he gets stretched out to start, I’d take a chance on a guy who thinks a 2.00 ERA is high!
Domonic Brown, PHI – slated to take Jayson Werth’s spot sooner rather than later, Brown tore up the minors to the tune of 20 HRs and 17 SBs in just 93 games before getting a 60-AB audition for the Phils in August. Will the Phils use Ben Francisco, or will Brown prove to be the man in charge?
ON THE ROAD AGAIN
Manny Ramirez, TB –Mannywood moves to the gulf coast after an injury-plagued year that saw him land on the DL three separate times and then claimed on waivers by the White Sox, where he was largely ineffective in 30 games. But he still hit .298/.402 for the season, so we know he can still hit. But will he “play” for just $2m?
Jack Cust, SEA – had a solid year for Oakland (.272/.391/50/13/52 in 349 ABs), yet he’s sitting on draft boards well past #350. If Russell Branyan can hit HRs in Seattle, so can Cust. This late round filler can easily add 20 HRs and 80 RBIs to your totals.
Bill Hall, HOU – signing on to become Houston’s everyday second sacker drew snickers, but he did put up 18 HRs in just 344 ABs last season, and we know he’s capable of a 30+ HR year -- just be prepared for a sub-.250 BA. And he’s only 31, even if it seems like he’s been around for decades.
Edwin Encarnacion, TOR – baseball’s Johnny Cash, Encarnacion’s been everywhere: he went from Cincy to Toronto to Opalocka (just kidding) to Oakland and back to Toronto in just a few months. He bounced back from a lousy 2009 to hit 21 HRs in just 344 ABs, but will he get the playing time in crowded Toronto? He’s worth a late-round flier.
Russell Martin, NYY – remember when he was the #1 overall fantasy catcher? Seems laughable today, but that was as recently as 2008! If he can hit enough to fend off Jesus Montero, he could be a nice fantasy pickup had very late in your draft. His SB totals have slid badly, but how many other catchers have a shot a double digit steals and HRs?
Magglio Ordonez, DET – despite the injuries, the loss of power, and the effects of age, Maggs still continues to hit .300 year-in, year-out. It’s hard to believe he’s a .312 career hitter. Even at age 37, he’s still capable of a .300/20/100 year (as was his pace last season). As long as he can stay healthy, he’ll out-produce his cost.
Brad Hawpe, SD – fell off a cliff in ’10, and after being dumped by Colorado after five solid seasons, couldn’t pry his fanny off Tampa Bay’s bench. Either he stays the shade of his former self in SD, or he’ll be out of the majors by the end of ’11. I’m betting on the former.
Jenrry Mejia/Dillon Gee, NYM – repeat after me – the Mets rotation currently is made up of Pelfrey, Niese, Dickey, Chris Young & Chris Capuano. If one of these two prospects can’t crack this rotation, well, the Mets have bigger problems than we already know.
BLOOM’S OFF THE ROSE
Alex Gordon, KC – he’s still a rock star in KC, but has gone from the next coming of The Beatles to Peter Lemongello in the eyes of fantasy players. Has gone downhill from his mediocre first couple of seasons, and while he’s just 27, this is likely his last straw to become the breakout star many thought of him as. I’m still a groupie.
James McDonald, PIT – had a mediocre ’09 before being exiled to Pittsburgh in a mid-season trade, but then began to pitch like the top prospect he once was (61 Ks in 64 IP in PIT). Heck, with stats like that he’ll be the Bucs’ #1 starter by May.
Cameron Maybin, SD – maybe the third time’s the charm for this former phenom as he puts on his 3rd uniform in five seasons. Had 8 HRs and 9 SBs in 291 ABs last season, and maybe those SB totals go up in San Diego. Is this the year he finally breaks out?
Chris Iannetta, COL – hit rock bottom last year as he joined the sub-.200 club. Is a career .234 hitter over 1,084 ABs, so he is what he is – but he does have solid pop and can take a walk (he had a .390 OBP in ’08). Only has Jose Morales to steal playing time, so Iannetta should be able to get 450 ABs with 20+ HR potential. Probably a better fit in OBP leagues.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, BOS – another failed catching prospect, Salty is now on his third major league team in four years. May never be the next coming of Brian McCann, but at age 26, I’m not ready to write him off just yet. But he better start motivating quickly.
Matt Joyce, TB – will Joyce finally get his shot or will uber-rookie Desmond Jennings take command? Joyce has good power – he has 25 HRs in 490 career ABs, but that comes equipped with a .243 BA. Joyce should win the job out of spring training, but if his BA hovers around his career average, don’t be surprised to see Jennings in early summer.
Justin Smoak, SEA – can a bad rookie year and a move to an offensively challenged team in a cavernous park smoke Smoak’s value? He’s not the Texas glamour boy any longer, but he should get the lion’s share of ABs for Seattle’s first baggers. A second straight sub-.220 year may bring visions of Chris Davis to fantasy leaguers, though.
Michael Saunders, SEA – just 24 years old, but has a career .214 BA in 411 ABs. Has decent power and speed, but Milton Bradley also looms on the bench. If he continues to hit that low, he’ll have another lost year for fantasy players. Tread carefully.
PAID THEIR DUES
Seth Smith, COL – sat behind Ryan Spilborghs and Brad Hawpe the last two seasons, and finally appears to have earned a starting job. Smith put up similar power/production numbers over a similar number of at-bats in 2009 and 2010, but his BA & OBP plunged last season and he ended with a 96 OPS+, which is enough to get his ass parked back on the bench. Worth a gamble, and should easily stroke 20 HRs with 75 RBIs.
Chris Getz, KC – his value will be largely determined by where Mike Aviles plays, but if he gets the majority of ABs at 2B, Getz can get 30+ SBs.
Will Rhymes, DET – is being given a chance to win the 2B job at the age of 28. Hit .304 in 191 ABs last year, but didn’t exhibit any of his 20 SB speed. He could be a solid end-game flyer if you’re looking for SBs.
Kila Ka’Aihue, KC – finally elevated to the majors and showed good pop with 8 HRs in 180 ABs. He’s the front-runner for the Royals 1B job, so if he gets 500 ABs, his power numbers could push him into the top tier of power hitters (he hit 37 HRs at two MiLB stops in ’08).
Jed Lowrie, BOS – had 9 HRs in just 171 ABs last year, and had 46 RBIs in 260 ABs in ’08, yet Boston continues to use the unexciting Marco Scutaro. If he gets his chance, Lowrie could be one of the better finds at the middle infield spot in 2011.
Alexi Casilla, MIN– received a smattering of playing time the last five seasons, but finally has emerged as a starter for the Twins. He had 50 SBs in back to back minor league years, so he’s a sneaky source of speed at the middle infield spot to be had late in drafts. Take a flyer.
Juan Miranda, ARZ – the soon to be 28-year old stayed at AAA for a number of years, where he showed good power and a nice batting eye. Is in the mix for the D’back 1B job, but he could be a classic AAAA player. He’ll only be drafted in the deepest of leagues, so monitor his early season progress for a FAAB bid.
Dan Johnson, TB – the 32-year old journeyman appears to be the front-runner for the Rays’ 1B job. He once hit 18 HRs and had 63 RBIs in 416 ABs, and also showed good plate patience with 72 BBs vs. 77 Ks. Clubbed 37 HRs between AAA and the majors last year, but like Miranda above, DJ may have just enough holes in his swing to make him an AAAA player.
Ryan Raburn, DET – the soon to be 30-year old finally gets a crack at a starting job after two years of solid power numbers. Raburn had a monster August/September, hitting 13 HRs with 40 RBIs over that period. Has his time come? Added benefit: has 2B eligibility in leagues with 15-game or less requirements.
Phil Coke, DET – gets his wish to move into the rotation in ’11, and the Tigers cleared the way by dealing Mr. Nearly Perfect to Arizona. He has a career 1.19 WHIP over 139 IP, so he’s been effective. Will fantasy players say “Coke is it”?
THE HURT LOCKER
Josh Willingham, OAK – was having a big year when his annual injury struck (.380 OBP, 16 HRs, 8 SBs). Is an undervalued OBP machine when healthy.
Kevin Youkilis/Dustin Pedroia, BOS – Pedroia and Youk should be as good as new, and Youk comes equipped with a new position in 2011.
Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS – after a frustrating season for Red Sox fans and Ellsbury owners alike, he said in February he’s ready to go “full bore.” Ellsbury stole 70 bases in 2009, so don’t overlook him if he seems fine in spring training games.
Jimmy Rollins, PHI – J-Roll has slid from a Top 5 pick to a begrudging pick as a 3rd rounder in most leagues. He’s probably on many “Do Not Touch” lists, yet if healthy, he should get his customary huge amount of PAs, elevating his value.
Jason Bay, NYM – Jay Bay was a fantasy Hindenburg in 2010……and then came the concussion, mercifully putting him out of his owners’ misery. We do have past NYM underperformance history to look to, however: David Wright suffered through a power outage in ’09, but rebounded well in ’10. Don’t write him off.
Chris Coghlan, FLA – got kneecapped in a goofy pie throwing episode, Coghlan just edged out Kendry Morales for most embarrassing injury of 2010. The ’09 NL Rookie of the Year will attempt to return to form after what was shaping up to be a very mediocre season.
David DeJesus, OAK – gets a new start in Oakland, where he apparently was a Billy Beane mancrush for years (who knew?). Was having his typical solid BA/little else year when he succumbed to injury, making him a solid 5th OFer/bench player in a deep mixed league if healthy.
JJ Hardy, BAL – had his second consecutive injury-plagued season, but recovered some value with a .268 BA. But where did the power go? If he’s healthy, he’s capable of .270-20-70, which would put him in the upper tier of a weak SS crop.
Geovanny Soto, CHC –after a disastrous sophomore campaign, he was having a nice bounceback season (.280/17/53 in just 322 ABs ) until it was derailed by a shoulder injury. He’s providing good value in drafts.
Xavier Nady, ARZ – can the X-Man come back from yet another injury-wracked year? He had 25 HRs and 97 RBIs as recently as 2008, yet he’s going undrafted in most leagues after two injury-wrecked years. Has a golden opportunity to play nearly every day in Arizona – so why is no one biting?
Miguel Montero, ARZ – fantasy players had high hopes for Montero after a breakout 2009, but it was not to be after a knee injury KO’d him for two months. His was producing at a similar pace however, so if healthy, he should be fine.
Justin Morneau, MIN –Morneau was lighting the baseball world aflame when a concussion ended his season. Can he return to his MVP-self? The problem with concussions is some players are prone to them, and you just never know. If you can get him at a discount, he’ll be worth the cost.
Nate McLouth, ATL – it amazes me that Pittsburgh market-timed the apex of McLouth’s value perfectly, but bungled the return on the deal with Atlanta. His BA plunged past the Mendoza line (.190 in 242 ABs), and this former All-Star wallowed in the minors for most of the summer. But the CFer job is still his, and supposedly he’s re-worked his swing, so maybe McLouth will return to fantasy consciousness.
David Freese, STL – was having a solid rookie year (.296/.352) when he was lost for the season. He was on pace for nearly 80 RBIs had he played a full season, and he’s also entering his age 27 year.
Brian Roberts, BAL – couldn’t shake his back woes and ended up with just 230 ABs after not playing unti the All-Star Break. Still, he showed he could still run, amassing 12 SBs (which paces him for 30+ if he plays his usually customary full season).
Kendry Morales, LAA – was having a similar year to his 2009 breakout when he shattered his ankle celebrating a grand slam. As long as he’s healthy, he should be fine.
Grady Sizemore, CLE – went from an all-purpose threat to injury prone in two seasons, thanks to micro fractures in his knee. The Indians already are saying he may miss the first few weeks of the year, and he still hasn’t been cleared for any baseball activities, so I’d be very, very hesitant in using a lot of resources on him. The 134 run, 28 HR, 22 SB campaign of 2006 seems so long ago.
Justin Duchscherer, BAL – here we go again: his hip is already hurting. Although he can be very effective when he actually does pitch (career 3.13 ERA & 1.14 WHIP), obviously you should have a backup plan (his name should not rhyme with Schmedard) in the event he does make it onto your team.
Daniel Murphy, NYM – with the Mets 2B job up for grabs, Murphy has a puncher’s chance of winning the job -- assuming he’s not a butcher in the field, of course. Having missed all of 2010, Murphy’s ’09 stats (.266/12/63) would be far more palatable to fantasy players in the middle infield than in the outfield, so monitor this situation for a potential late-draft value play.
Carlos Beltran, NYM –By combining his ’09 &’10 seasons, we get an idea of what a full year would look like for Beltran in CitiField, and it’s ain’t bad: .295/71/17/75/14. But will Beltran make it through a full year? Two words are in favor of this: contract year.
Chris Young, NYM – another Met reclamation project, Young moves from one great pitcher’s park to another. But between his frequent injuries and his high walk totals, even when he’s effective he doesn’t pitch a whole lot (his seasonal inning high is 179). He could help your team in spurts, but don’t expect too much.
Edinson Volquez, CIN –Volquez has spent parts of five seasons in the majors, and his career stats are bizarre – four seasons of 62 or less IP, and one with 196. Now he’s supposedly healthy but has visa problems *sigh*. He strikes out a ton, but also walks a ton. Is he worth the injury headache? I wouldn’t go out of my way to land the guy.
Jeff Francis, KC – showed promise in Colorado, winning as many as 17 games in ’07 – but he was awful in ’08, missed all of ’09 and parts of ’10, and when he did show up last season, continued his awfulness. Sounds like he’ll fit right in with Kansas City.
Joe Nathan, MIN – missed all of ’10 with Tommy John surgery, and then the Twins brought in Matt Capps off waivers, who promptly saved 42 games. Nathan saw game action for the first time on Tuesday, so if you do draft Nathan, make 100% sure you also grab Capps later on.
Erik Bedard, SEA – he says he’s healthy, and he’s back in the pitching-haven of Seattle, so what do we make of Bedard? Well, we know he can pitch – he has a career 8.8 K/9 rate, and had a stellar, stats-supported season in ’07 (13-5, 3.16 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 221 Ks). I’d take a shot on him one last time.
Brandon Webb, TEX – another injury-prone pitcher who now hasn’t pitched in two full seasons, Webb is just starting to throw with any real velocity. Next will come game action, but who knows if he’s 100% back, even if he says he’s healthy? He’s not worth much more than a Dollar Day bid or a late round draft pick.
Brad Penny, DET – Penny has made it through six of his 11 major league seasons uninjured, so for those of you scoring at home, that’s barely better than 50-50. What’s more troubling is the fact he doesn’t strike anyone out anymore (he’s had a 5.7 K/9 rate in each of the last two seasons). But boy, does he date some hotties!
Jordan Zimmermann, WAS – the young flamethrower will be on an innings limit, so expect him to b shut down by September (if he makes it that far). He could provide solid performance in the time he’s pitching though, so he’s worth a small price for 2011.
NEW CLOSERS
Drew Storen, WAS – has been a closer throughout his collegiate and minor league career, so we know he has the head for the job. And since WAS drafted him as a closer, we know he’ll have little competition as long as he’s pitching well. I can foresee 30+ saves for him in ’11.
Joel Hanrahan, PIT – that pederast Hanrahan won the job again over Evan Meek, but before we ring up 30+ saves for him, let’s note he has 20 career saves and a career 1.49 WHIP. But wow: 100 Ks in 69 IP last season, and a 10.3 K/9 career rate! If he can continue to not purposely put guys on base, he could have a solid year.
Craig Kimbrel/Jonny Venters, ATL – one of these two youngsters will likely take the job, and both had huge rookie seasons. But they’ve combined for two career saves, so will either emerge as a closer? Will both?
JJ Putz, ARZ – had one of the greatest seasons by a closer in 2007 (1.38 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 40 Sv), but experienced shoulder troubles and quickly was dropped from the ranks. After two injury-plagued seasons as a setup guy where he was a shadow of his former self, Putz had a huge bounceback year last season – 2.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 10.8 K/9. As long as he can remain healthy, he should be able to return to form as the D’Back closer.
Frank Francisco, TOR – replaced by Neftali Feliz in Texas, Francisco nevertheless had a solid year as his primary set-up guy. Moves to Toronto where he’s apparently the front-runner for the job, but note they also signed Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch. If you’re buying Francisco, make sure to take on at least one of those guys as well.
Kyle Farnsworth/Jake McGee, TB – the young upstart McGee says he wants to be the closer, but old fart Farnsworth (1 save since 2006) may block him temporarily. We all know what Farnsworth can and can’t do – his seasonal high in saves is just 16 – so why shouldn’t TB take the Neftali Feliz path and just give McGee the job? Of course, McGee was a starter in the minors, and doesn’t have closing experience. But, oooh, those K/9 rates. I’d watch the spring training battle, but would edge towards McGee getting the lion’s share of the chances.
Matt Thornton, CWS – Will the 34-year old get his chance to close? Or will young Chris Sale end his dream? Thornton obviously has the goods – 2.70 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 11.0 K/9 the last three seasons – but he’s also a free agent at year’s end. Does it make more sense to groom a cheap closer for the next five years, or create one and then pay him like one? My gut says Sale will get the job at some point this season, especially if the White Sox fall out of the race.
Brandon League, SEA – David Aardsma is hurt and will miss potentially all of April, which bodes well for League’s chances to keep the job longer-term. His K/9 rate plunged in ’10 to 6.4, down from 9.2 the year before. But he was still solid overall. At the very least, he’ll get you some early season saves at a dirt cheap price.
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- Wonderboy
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