OPS of players in their 30's

[Moonlight J]

keep that in mind as we see what AJ Pierzynski signs for

[rhd]

That graph is surprising and changes the way I think of players in their mid-30's. Absolutely mind-boggling and counter-intuitive that a 37-yr old hitter has a higher OPS than a 33-yr old player. Of course, the graph doesnt take into consideration the players that are out of MLB by their mid-30's. I'd like to see a graph from 2005 to present, which would represent a more PED-less sample.

Another graph I'd like to see is PAs for the same age range.

Can you do a graph for pitchers' FIP or xFIP?

[Moonlight J]

If you're 37 and not a good hitter, you're likely not in the league any longer or aren't getting enough playing time to matter.

[rhd]

If you're 37 and not a good hitter, you're likely not in the league any longer or aren't getting enough playing time to matter.

I was thinking more towards fantasy and how much to discount players over age 33 from their performance over the prior 3 years or so. The key would seem to be determining which players are through by their mid-30's and also for hitters still in MLB how much time these players are likely miss due to injuries, rest, etc. That's why I wanted to see a graph of PAs for these hitters. And also the sample sizes for the different ages.

[Moonlight J]

Sadly, I didn't keep the spreadsheet I did this with. I'll do something with pitchers and keep that here in the coming weeks.

[Long John]

I'd like to see a graph from 2005 to present, which would represent a more PED-less sample.

I really don't think 2005-present would represent a more PED-less sample. Just because the League and the PA formalized testing before the 2005 season doesn't mean that the usage has necessarily declined as a result. It just means that players were forced to be more vigilant and intelligent with their performance drugs of choice. Even when tests are adopted that will screen for all known PEDs and when blood tests are agreed upon, players will still find ways to get around it.

Why do you think we've seen an increased number of Minor League players suspended? Because the reward for making it to the Big Leagues is millions and millions of dollars. Even the base minimum 400k is worth the risk for some players. 50 games is a drop in the bucket for someone who seeks the big payout reward for making it.

[Controller Jacobs]

I really don't think 2005-present would represent a more PED-less sample. Just because the League and the PA formalized testing before the 2005 season doesn't mean that the usage has necessarily declined as a result. It just means that players were forced to be more vigilant and intelligent with their performance drugs of choice. Even when tests are adopted that will screen for all known PEDs and when blood tests are agreed upon, players will still find ways to get around it.

Why do you think we've seen an increased number of Minor League players suspended? Because the reward for making it to the Big Leagues is millions and millions of dollars. Even the base minimum 400k is worth the risk for some players. 50 games is a drop in the bucket for someone who seeks the big payout reward for making it.

1994-2003/2004 has a dramatic difference statistically.
The best example I've seen is if you look at the top 10 in slugging % for each year: BR Link

Using just the top 10 hitters in slugging %, per year, you can see these averages:
1994-2004: .641
2005-2007: .612
2008-2012: .579
On a more discrete level, from 1994-2004, .690 slugging was bested 16 times. From 1962-1993, nobody did it. From 2005 forward, nobody has done it.

As such, I think it's worth consideration that age falloffs from 2005 on would be different than those from 2000 on.

[DJBeasties]

What is the PA threshold on this?

[TS Garp]

Good write-up on Frangraphs about Pierzynski:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/aj-pierzynski-whats-next/

[onejayhawk]

Given the peaks and valleys, I wonder if that is a graph of all players by age. If so, the graph is influenced by release/retirement, causing (presumably) under performing players to fall out of the average. Another thing I would want to know is how they arrived at the numbers. Is it weighted by PT or a simple average of the player numbers?

J