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2k11: Jeremy Hellickson

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  • #1

    2k11: Jeremy Hellickson

    I tried to ask Jason what he thought about Hellboy, but all he talked about was puppies and rainbows and walking on water on his days off. So I guess we're on our own.

    Did you know that Tropicana Field was one of the toughest places to hit a home run in the majors last year? That can only help Hellboy, even though it doesn't seem to help James Shields.

    Last year in AAA, Hellickson threw 117.2 IP with a 9.4 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9, allowing just 5 HRs. In the majors, he threw 36 innings with great numbers: 8.2 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. He did allow 5 HRs and benefited from a .267 BABIP and 80% strand rate. Plus his K/BB numbers will probably be a little less exciting when he spends a full year as a starter.

    I think he'll be good, but the Rays will probably be a little careful with his innings and I think he has a little Radke in him. Meaning his WHIP will be good but the ERA will be a little high and he'll give up a few HRs.

    Bill James: 161 IP, 11-7, 3.47/1.17, 170 Ks
    Fans: 159 IP, 11-7, 3.60/1.17, 150 Ks

    I'll take the fans projections. I think James is a bit too high on the Ks.
    Tags: 2k11
  • #2
    You have to like him for a lot of innings. The team cleared a rotation spot for him, so plan on maximum starts. Even with a quick hook, those IP numbers are very low for the ERA and K projections. One thing that will help is his GB tendencies. He has a good IF defense to turn the DP.

    That being said, I expect him to struggle a bit. Flame throwers tend to stumble a bit out of the gate, and young flame throweres more than average in the group. Six weeks in might be a good time for evaluations.

    J

    PS Check out his stat line for A+ in 2010, 21.6 K/9, but K/BB ratio of inly 2.0. Oh yeah, and ERA of 21.60 as well.
    Last edited by onejayhawk; 03-03-2011, 09:47 AM.
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    • #3
      I cant see a rookie playing in a division with Boston, NY and two improved offenses in Baltimore and Toronto, keeping his ERA under 4 if he logs more than 100 innings. I think its going to be a bumpy fiest time around for Hellickson.
      After former Broncos quarterback Brian Griese sprained his ankle and said he was tripped on the stairs of his home by his golden retriever, Bella: “The dog stood up on his hind legs and gave him a push? You might want to get rid of that dog, or put him in the circus, one of the two.”

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      • #4
        My thoughts from last month

        http://dockoftherays.com/2011/01/11/jeremy-hellickson-2011/


        He's special....

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Moonlight J View Post
          My thoughts from last month

          http://dockoftherays.com/2011/01/11/jeremy-hellickson-2011/


          He's special....
          does he take the little yellow bus to all road games?
          After former Broncos quarterback Brian Griese sprained his ankle and said he was tripped on the stairs of his home by his golden retriever, Bella: “The dog stood up on his hind legs and gave him a push? You might want to get rid of that dog, or put him in the circus, one of the two.”

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          • #6
            He is probably going to start the season on the disabled list, but don't freak out

            http://dockoftherays.com/2011/03/06/hellickson-to-the-dl-sure-why-not/

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            • #7
              Curious as to what people's thoughts are on this guy after we've seen him in a handful of games.

              It's been a little frustrating owning him. I picked him up after his first 10K game and the results since then have been mixed. He's striking out 6.61/9, and walking 3.45/9, pretty pedestrian compared to his MiLB numbers. I really like the way this guy looks on the mound though. I've had the opportunity to catch him in his last two starts, and he just looks good out there. Great composure, and his pitches have great movement. But the results are killing me. Any suggestions or advice moving forward?

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              • #8
                It has been the third time through the lineup that has got him. He's also had some rather unfortunate BABIP luck, particularly on the 4/13 start against Minnesota.

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                • #9
                  He seems to put a lot of balls right over the plate. He keeps trying to put his 2 seam fb on the outside corner but against MIN he was missing a lot over the plate instead of outside.

                  Fangraphs lists his fastball as being 1 mph slower than last year. Both years were sss though.

                  I'm guessing his 60-70 ip is more than enough for hitters to adjust to what he's doing. Time for Hellickson to make an adjustment.

                  Also, it should be noted that his ytd babip is .271.
                  "The Times found no pattern of sexual misconduct by Mr. Biden, beyond the hugs, kisses and touching that women previously said made them uncomfortable." -NY Times

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                  • #10
                    It was also 35 degrees when he was pitching in that game and when you feature curves and changes, both "feel" pitches, that's going to be a problem. That, and that Hellickson appears to make adjustments in those 3rd and 4th at bats after the batters make theirs in the second at bat.


                    Code:
                    <PRE>                                                               
I          Split PA HR SO SO/BB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS BAbip tOPS+
     Pitch  1-25 88  2 20  3.33 .173 .239 .309 .547  .203    53
     Pitch 26-50 75  2 18  3.00 .309 .360 .515 .875  .388   142
     Pitch 51-75 59  3 12  6.00 .250 .288 .536 .824  .268   123
    Pitch 76-100 58  2  6  1.00 .216 .310 .373 .683  .209    92
      Pitch 101+  5  0        0 .400 .400 .400 .800  .400   128
</PRE>

Provided by [url=http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/sharing.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool]Baseball-Reference.com[/url]: [url=http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=hellije01&year=Career&t=p&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#pitco]View Original Table[/url]
Generated 5/1/2011.

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                    • #11
                      So, good guy to target for 2012 in keeper leagues?

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