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DISCLAIMER: In case there is any confusion about the purpose of some of my posts like this, let me explain. My main focus since joining the original site here in 1999 has been to HELP OTHER OWNERS WIN. I saw a combination, even then, of both newcomers and veterans who were looking for that sort of help.
The purpose of these Anatomies - which I think I started off a 2002 title - is to show that you can make mistakes and still win, so don’t be afraid to take chances in the right situations. And when I have a bad year, I try to learn from my mistakes - and maybe you can, too.
As it turns out, many longtime, very successful owners have reached out to me to say they enjoy reading a breakdown either of similar approaches, or of seeing some different wrinkles. I can’t teach them a greater amount than they can teach me - but we still can learn from each other.
Finally, in recent years I’m noticing more head-to-head players who want to try an auction league, but may find the strategy involved a little daunting. Discussions like this may help, I hope.
If a post like this doesn’t appeal to you, I understand. We’ll meet again on a different thread, and adios.
For others, it’s a long read ("War and Peace" was mentioned in last year's comments, lol) - but an even longer offseason. Set this one aside for when you have a few minutes - or print it for when you'll be spending time on the plumbing.
And let me know what moves – dumb or smart – surprised you most.
……………..
For my 29th annual auction in this league – 12-team NL-only 5x5 - I walked in with this (end-year values are HQ 5x5 results):
FREEZE LIST
C Miguel Montero 15
VERDICT: Paid out $18, so a good keep
C Wilin Rosario 5
VERDICT: Also paid out $18, so big profit here.
3B Pablo Sandoval 23
VERDICT: Only worth $13 to his year-long owners, but this is the lone keeper that I traded – and his fast start paid huge dividends in that mid-May deal, so no complaints.
2B Daniel Murphy 1
VERDICT: Worth $17, so another big profit though this one was more obvious.
SS Starlin Castro 10
VERDICT: Snagged him at last year’s trading deadline in a dump deal and finished 4th, same as if I had stood pat. $26 payout was no surprise.
OF Martin Prado 20
VERDICT: Acquired in March for CRuiz 6. Proved to be worth $25, but Ruiz surprisingly earned 20. Yet with no deal I’d have kept 3 catchers (or let equally valuable Rosario go), closing out UT even before we started. I also was lacking in OF, and Prado wound up qualifying at 1B-2B-3B-SS during season, so no real regrets.
OF Shane Victorino 29
VERDICT: Only earned $22 even with 39 SB, as he hit only .255 and missed some time. The rest of the keepers were high AVG and low speed overall, though, so the mix is good here.
SP Tommy Hanson 15
VERDICT: A disaster, as a 4.50 ERA and 1.458 Ratio for me undid the good from 13 W and 156 K – a net MINUS 1 for my former 24th overall farm pick five years ago. Ugh.
RP Huston Street 20
VERDICT: Unhittable when on the mound (1.50 ERA, 0.528 Ratio for me), but even that and 23 SV was worth only $15 in just 36 IP. But with auction inflation, no regrets here, either.
RP Rafael Betancourt 10
VERDICT: The old man came through nicely, earning $15 even in 5x5 with 31 SV.
RP David Hernandez 1
VERDICT: Second straight stellar setup season paid out $10 for my $1.
BOTTOM LINE: I kept 11 for 149, and they were worth 178 - an ok result given inflation, even with the Hanson debacle. It’s 10 for 139 and worth 165 minus Sandoval, who only led to greater total profits via that deal. So this could be a money-winning team, it seems.
…………..
NOW TO THE AUCTION WE GO
I start out needing:
12 for 111
In sequence of when I obtained them:
SP ROY HALLADAY 40 – With 7 hitters frozen (worth a well-balanced 139, it turned out) and my bullpen all set, it was clear I needed to go hard after starting pitching that was pretty scarce. I froze Halladay last year for 44, and figured if this Roy-lover wouldn’t keep him at that, he wouldn’t get bid that high again. Three players into the auction, I have now spent 189 and feel like the mosaic already is filling in nicely. Lincecum next went 40, then 2nd rd Kershaw 43 (to the winner), Gio Gonzalez kicked off round 3 at 29 (!, but worth it), and Cain 36, JJohnson 35 the only other bigtime buys available.
VERDICT: Harbinger of this team’s undoing, Halladay was worth only $5 which meant – little did I know it – that winning at this point would be virtually impossible. NEED 11 for 71
OF NYJER MORGAN 13 – Didn’t have enough money left to price-enforce an odd Matt Holliday winning price of just $32 (low in this auction, to the winner). Gio went one player before this for sky-high, and just felt like time to take a player you might break even with. Liked this pick when Melky Cabrera went later for a mystifying-to-me $28.
VERDICT: worth $4, felt worthless. Waived in Sept. NEED 10 for 58
1B JAMES LONEY 20 – Weird 1B auction selection of only Votto (I couldn’t afford, I knew, at 47), injured Ryan Howard (19, didn’t want), LaHair (10, didn’t want),Garrett Jones (16, didn’t want), Ty Wigginton 11 (didn’t want). Paid 20 for Loney in 2011, stuck with him for red-hot Aug/Sept, thought I could toss him back for less (wrong). But this was inevitable.
VERDICT: Awful disappointment, and worth more to me dead than alive (as we’ll see later). NEED 9 for 38
OF JASON KUBEL 20 – I sat out Rounds 4, 5 and 6 with not a lot of dough and little appetite for the prices (ironically including ASoriano 22 and Headley 19 as well as Espinosa 25, McGehee 14). Could see at this point that there was close to ZERO power left in the pool and I was lacking a brute (AVG be damned). Incredibly relieved to salvage Kubel here.
VERDICT: Kubel only hit .200 in Sept with 3 HR, dragging his season value down to $18. Still proved to be a very valuable pick in this slot for me. NEED 8 for 18
OF GREGOR BLANCO 2 – Feeling pretty good about my offense now (which was justified), looking for bargains. Giants camp was abuzz over team's love for Blanco all spring training, and I hoped Blanco wouldn’t get enough low-AVG ABs to negate his SBs.
VERDICT: Paid out $12 for his 26 SB, .244 AVG in almost 400 ABs. Nice, and marked me as a SB-strong team all season. NEED 7 for 16
SP RICKY NOLASCO 2 – Bought back-to-back players for only time in auction. Realized by now that just Halladay-Hanson for SP left me lacking (how much so, I couldn’t have imagined), so time to focus there. Went lower than I thought, but of course all former Nolasco owners played cricket here.
VERDICT: Loved him with 6 or 8 early wins, but he was up to 4.90/1.456 for me before I jettisoned him (too soon) in a deal. NEED 6 for 14
RP FERNANDO SALAS 3 – Bullpen was not an area of need, but Salas was lights-out in 2011, Motte is not Kimbrel, and he figured to return a profit.
VERDICT: Worth minus $3 if you had him all season – and I didn’t, waiving him before he got his act together and bringing him back just before the wheels fell off again. I got 14 ER in 20 IP in 2 tours of duty; he allowed 14 ER in 39 IP in between. #1-2punch. NEED 5 for 11
UT NATE MCLOUTH 1 – Got his Pirates takeoff to stardom for 2 back in the day; figured it would be nice the 2nd time around as well.
VERDICT: Unspeakable .170 in 47 AB before dumping him; earned $7 overall somehow. Will turn the channel if he’s due at bat for the Orioles in the playoffs. NEED 4 for 10
SP DILLON GEE 2 – That weird part of the auction where a couple of owners have WAY too much money left, so you know who you can’t get – in this case, Andrew Cashner (who went for 13 later) and everyone’s sleeper Lance Lynn 10 (to the eventual winner after he got outbid for Cashner). Figured Gee might get a few Ks, and if not, hello waiver wire.
VERDICT: Paid out $3 in a half-season and seemed on the verge until his injury. NEED 3 for 8
1B-3B JUAN URIBE 3 – That point in the auction where the self-loathing becomes unbearable. Had NO hopes at all here; new he was a bum. HQ tried to save me with this Forecaster bit: “Across-the-board skills decline included inability to maintain 2010 plate skills gains, and season-long power outage. No longer a multi-position qualifier, in case you needed another reason for avoidance.”
VERDICT: All-too-predictable .190 in 126 AB before I tossed him out of the side of the car at 60 mph. NEED 2 for 5
2B-SS FREDDY SANCHEZ 2-DL – Would open on DL, but at least had a shot to help in AVG eventually. Auction cupboard was bare, anyway.
VERDICT: Was a couple of weeks away from returning all season – still waiting, as he never got into a game. NEED 1 for 3
SP JAMES MCDONALD 1 – Yeah, this guy. Wasn’t at the top of my sleeper list, but was a pitcher I’d take in dollar days if on the board. Only one other owner could bid 2, and he declined (and finished with the worst season in our 5x5 history).
VERDICT: One of baseball’s best pitchers at the All-Star Break (9-3, 2.37 ERA, 100 K in 110 IP). Then – disaster. Awful July/Aug, then 17 ER in 12 IP in Sept and lost his job. And no, we don’t have a bench. How to cut him at 1? Still paid out $6 with all that gore. DONE
REPLACEMENT
For FSanchez – EMMANUEL BURRIS.
VERDICT: .222 in 72 AB and only 2 SB before being jettisoned. There’s a reason he was available.
…………………
OPENING DAY ROSTER
SP Roy Halladay 40
SP Tommy Hanson 15
SP Ricky Nolasco 2
SP Dillon Gee 2
SP James McDonald 1
RP Huston Street 20
RP Rafael Betancourt 10
RP David Hernandez 1
RP Fernando Salas 3
C Miguel Montero 15
C Wilin Rosario 5
1B James Loney 20
3B Pablo Sandoval 23
13 Juan Uribe 3
2B Daniel Murphy 1
SS Starlin Castro 10
2S Emmanuel Burriss for Freddy Sanchez 2
OF Shane Victorino 29
OF Martin Prado 20
OF Jason Kubel 20
OF Nyjer Morgan 13
OF Gregor Blanco 2
UT Nate McLouth 1
………………………
I was in 4th place on May 1,and 19 pts out – about what I expected to that point.
Then one always-contending team had the worst start (and finish) of his career, so he had an early fire sale.
On May 17, I GOT Hunter Pence 27-O and Michael Cuddyer 31-S2 for just-DLd Pablo Sandoval 23-S1 and two doorstops (McLouth 1 and Burriss FA).
VERDICT: Sandoval missed more time than expected, and the biggest boost for me was dumping my two biggest black holes for actual players. This deal alone set up my offense for a strong season. The duo only hit a combined .256 and Cuddyer missed the last month due to injury, but they combined for 26 HR, 98 RBI, 98 R, 5 SB – equivalent of another Kubel-type albeit with the same AVG. Subracting Sandoval’s numbers for them makes it about a 19 HR, 53 RBI, 57 R, 4 SB difference. Love Kung Fu Panda, but that’s worth a 23-unit keep that now seems less likely to occur.
Halladay then went to the DL as the month ended – a huge warning sign even with the great McDonald and decent Nolasco start to the season. I remained 4th, same pts, but now 30 pts out as one team grabbed the reins hard.
I spent June rotating non-descript hitters: Sands, Schumaker, Wallace, F-Mart and foolishly chasing Cubs SV with Dolis and Russell (idea was to have enough SV excess to get a good SP). But I still climbed to 2nd on July 1 with 81 pts as the offensive improvement began showing up. 21 pts back, though, and an owner with a 10-unit Stanton and 5-unit Bryce Harper. Even if I went all-in, he had aces to play. But my bet was he stubbornly would hold onto those guys, after a last-place finish in 2011 and dreams of a dynasty. But I had no excess to solve the SP muddle, and nothing was available (panic-started Lyles 1 game to burn one of 6 ‘free’ moves all year, then used another to get rid of him. Still, the latter move landed me the “safe” and later closing Luke Gregerson, allowing me to win the SV title).
At the All-Star break, no owner had pushed the leader via a dump deal – or even made one to assert a claim on 2nd place, at least. I picked up Cishek on July 19, for another closer, eventually. The fearful leader on July 26 traded his 3rd chip – a future 5-unit Gerrit Cole for a needed extra bat in awakening Ryan Zimmerman. (While this owner led by 20 at this point, turns out he would not have won without this deal.). Halladay’s return on the same date gave me a glimmer of hope as I warily inquired about dump deals.
I’m back in 4th on Aug 1, down to 72.5 pts, or 27 pts out of 1st while even 2nd place is now 15 pts ahead of me. Lots of traffic in the middle of the pack, too. Meanwhile, I finally found a FA SP I could live with: the Astros’ Lucas Harrell, who replaced the DL’d Hanson.
On Aug 9, I finally made a modest deal:
I GOT Rickie Weeks 20-O for a stump (Matt McBride FA) and Rockies OF farmhand Tim Wheeler.
VERDICT: Weeks hit a palatable .262 with a 9-24-38-9 line that helped in all of those categories. Worth it assuming I cash in at the end.
Ominously, though, the 2nd-place team saw my Wheeler and raised me – dealing Mets phenom ZACH Wheeler for a 36-unit Matt Cain. Seemed like he had grabbed the keys for 2nd place, anyway.
Now comes the Aug 16 trading deadline. One mid-pack team rolled the dice on a lame-duck Carlos Marmol for a 3-unit Ryan Madson. That worked well, as did the theft of Andre Ethier 30 for a last-legs Todd Helton 3 and AL-bound Jordan Schafer 5. The 3rd-place team snagged Hanley Ramirez 48 for Chris Johnson 6.
I was lured into a seeming no-brainer: GETTING lame duck Jordan Zimmermann – at last, a good SP! – and 30-unit Justin Upton for hapless (at that point) Nolasco and 5-unit farmhand Jameson Taillon. Surely this deal would move me up to 2nd or 3rd.
VERDICT: Upton was stellar in 161 AB: .298, 8-21-30-5, while throw-in Schumaker hit an empty .206. But Nolasco (3 W. 3.44, 1.145) outpitched Zimm (3 W, 4.84, 1.455). Ugh.
Not so fast: the same team that got H-Ram also backed up the truck of the last dumping team, adding lame ducks McCutchen and Morse plus 29-unit Jay Bruce and Josh Johnson. The return package had appeal: Allen Craig 1, Jon Jay 2, Michael Fiers 5, Matt Adams 5, and a mid-draft farm pick in April.
I woke up the next morning to a big shift from weeks ago: the leader had slipped badly to 91.5, the Cain-acquirer had 86, the blockbuster package-adder had 84, I had 78, followed by Marmol-adder at 73, a mid-pack team that made no deals at 71.5, and a waffler at 67.5. A no-man’s-land vibe, I felt, but if Halladay, Hanson and Zimmermann were all on their game…..
Instead, Zimmermann gave up 15 ER in his first 13 IP, torpedoing my ERA/Ratio salvage efforts at the time.
On Aug 23, Hanson was back from DL and due 2 starts that week. But I had no obvious pitcher to cut. Wait a week and miss the 2 starts? I was still chasing W and K, so no. Hanson was so-so that week – and the pitcher I cut was Harrell, a terrible move as it turned out. Alarm bells flashed all year on Hanson, but I’ve owned his whole career and felt some misplaced loyalty.
Still, I got a big break on Aug 30, as lame Loney went to AL to give me enough FAAB to land AdGonz, his replacement.
September began with the leader all year – who never did deal Stanton or Harper – clinging to a 95.5 to 89.5 lead on the Cain-getting team. The blockbuster-dealer guy has climbed to 82, the stand-pay guy very surprisingly rose to 80, and I was stuck in a share of 5th with the Marmol-getter at 71, (5 pct of pot, and we were 7 pts ahead of 7th).
The Sept 6 add-a-players were mostly nondescript as usual; I took Reed Johnson – as safe an AVG guy as there is in an FA pool – and passed up Adam Eaton due to concerns that Chris Young’s return was imminent just 2 days after Eaton’s recall.
After 15 days of Sept baseball, the year-long leader was up to 100, blockbuster guy soared to 89, stand-pat boy had 84 (think Soriano and Estrada surges, with Rizzo and Yadier among those backing up Braun), the Cain-getter sinking to 82, me at 71 for 5th, a mid-pack guy at a harmless 66.5, and Marmol/Ethier-getter down to 66.
Few major moves were left, but on Sept 27 – the last transaction day – it was a 3-team race: all-year guy 98, blockbuster boy 88, standpat guy 86, then Cain-getter freefalling to 77, and me and nondescript midpack guy at 73 for 5th with Marmol/Ethier man at 67. The latter guy sensed the jig was up, but dumped a lame-duck Axford for the final week in the hopes that late-season discard Shawn Marcum (he was 23 and sucked after DL return) might grab a win in one start.
All-year guy never let up, winning the thing at 99. Stand-pat guy somehow surged to 2nd (his best-ever finish) at 91.5, blockbuster boy settled for 3rd at 90. Then it gets complicated (as noted in another thread):
At 9:30 pm ET on the last night, 4th to 7th was 74-74-74-73. Oddly, I had 4 RPs left in the final 2 games of the year – Street, Gregerson, Betancourt and DHernandez. I needed Ks and AVG, at this pt, as well as good Ratios.
D-Hern allowed 2 runners but got 2 Ks. Street was unavailable (surprise!) and Betancourt didn’t take his SV for some reason. That left Gregerson. He struck out the last batter of the regular season to give me a half-pt in SV, and no H or BB. I was watching live update on All-Star Stats (every 2 minutes), and I had 73.5 in a scenario of 74-74-73.5-73. The last K lifted me out of a share of 6th, and I had a 1.293 to 1.293 battle with that same team in Ratio, me trailing.
Did Gregerson’s clean inning do it? By the time I refreshed again at 11:16 pm – 5 minutes after the last out – it was clear that the numbers would not change.
I was less focused on AVG, where I wound up losing .2678 to .2678 to the champs. Never did calculate how many decimal pts I needed to grab 4th place alone ($120). The Ratio loss was clearer the next day – 1.2926 to 1.2930.
Taking Eaton over Reed Johnson would have netted me 4th place. Even worse, doing NOTHING instead of picking up Johnson (7 for 37, .189, no help elsewhere) would have netted me 4th place.
Marmol-Ethier guy – 6 pts out of the money with a week to go – got a win from Marcum that lifted him into a share of 4th instead of a share of 5th (with me). The Cain-getter dropped 15.5 pts in September and very nearly finished out of the money after seemingly being set for 2nd place.
Ah well. All of our leagues have seen bad beats like this for FIRST place, and for bigger money than this in many cases.
I finished 1st in R, 2nd in RBI and SB, 4th in SVG (by a short and curly), and 6th in HR (2 back of 5th and 4 back of 4th).
Also 1st in SV but 10th in W, ERA, Ratio and share of 10th in K.
That’s my story. Thanks for sticking around til the end (I am thinking of the “Airplane” scene where the old lady hangs herself in the midst of Robert Hays’ boring story, lol).
On to 2013!!
The purpose of these Anatomies - which I think I started off a 2002 title - is to show that you can make mistakes and still win, so don’t be afraid to take chances in the right situations. And when I have a bad year, I try to learn from my mistakes - and maybe you can, too.
As it turns out, many longtime, very successful owners have reached out to me to say they enjoy reading a breakdown either of similar approaches, or of seeing some different wrinkles. I can’t teach them a greater amount than they can teach me - but we still can learn from each other.
Finally, in recent years I’m noticing more head-to-head players who want to try an auction league, but may find the strategy involved a little daunting. Discussions like this may help, I hope.
If a post like this doesn’t appeal to you, I understand. We’ll meet again on a different thread, and adios.
For others, it’s a long read ("War and Peace" was mentioned in last year's comments, lol) - but an even longer offseason. Set this one aside for when you have a few minutes - or print it for when you'll be spending time on the plumbing.
And let me know what moves – dumb or smart – surprised you most.
……………..
For my 29th annual auction in this league – 12-team NL-only 5x5 - I walked in with this (end-year values are HQ 5x5 results):
FREEZE LIST
C Miguel Montero 15
VERDICT: Paid out $18, so a good keep
C Wilin Rosario 5
VERDICT: Also paid out $18, so big profit here.
3B Pablo Sandoval 23
VERDICT: Only worth $13 to his year-long owners, but this is the lone keeper that I traded – and his fast start paid huge dividends in that mid-May deal, so no complaints.
2B Daniel Murphy 1
VERDICT: Worth $17, so another big profit though this one was more obvious.
SS Starlin Castro 10
VERDICT: Snagged him at last year’s trading deadline in a dump deal and finished 4th, same as if I had stood pat. $26 payout was no surprise.
OF Martin Prado 20
VERDICT: Acquired in March for CRuiz 6. Proved to be worth $25, but Ruiz surprisingly earned 20. Yet with no deal I’d have kept 3 catchers (or let equally valuable Rosario go), closing out UT even before we started. I also was lacking in OF, and Prado wound up qualifying at 1B-2B-3B-SS during season, so no real regrets.
OF Shane Victorino 29
VERDICT: Only earned $22 even with 39 SB, as he hit only .255 and missed some time. The rest of the keepers were high AVG and low speed overall, though, so the mix is good here.
SP Tommy Hanson 15
VERDICT: A disaster, as a 4.50 ERA and 1.458 Ratio for me undid the good from 13 W and 156 K – a net MINUS 1 for my former 24th overall farm pick five years ago. Ugh.
RP Huston Street 20
VERDICT: Unhittable when on the mound (1.50 ERA, 0.528 Ratio for me), but even that and 23 SV was worth only $15 in just 36 IP. But with auction inflation, no regrets here, either.
RP Rafael Betancourt 10
VERDICT: The old man came through nicely, earning $15 even in 5x5 with 31 SV.
RP David Hernandez 1
VERDICT: Second straight stellar setup season paid out $10 for my $1.
BOTTOM LINE: I kept 11 for 149, and they were worth 178 - an ok result given inflation, even with the Hanson debacle. It’s 10 for 139 and worth 165 minus Sandoval, who only led to greater total profits via that deal. So this could be a money-winning team, it seems.
…………..
NOW TO THE AUCTION WE GO
I start out needing:
12 for 111
In sequence of when I obtained them:
SP ROY HALLADAY 40 – With 7 hitters frozen (worth a well-balanced 139, it turned out) and my bullpen all set, it was clear I needed to go hard after starting pitching that was pretty scarce. I froze Halladay last year for 44, and figured if this Roy-lover wouldn’t keep him at that, he wouldn’t get bid that high again. Three players into the auction, I have now spent 189 and feel like the mosaic already is filling in nicely. Lincecum next went 40, then 2nd rd Kershaw 43 (to the winner), Gio Gonzalez kicked off round 3 at 29 (!, but worth it), and Cain 36, JJohnson 35 the only other bigtime buys available.
VERDICT: Harbinger of this team’s undoing, Halladay was worth only $5 which meant – little did I know it – that winning at this point would be virtually impossible. NEED 11 for 71
OF NYJER MORGAN 13 – Didn’t have enough money left to price-enforce an odd Matt Holliday winning price of just $32 (low in this auction, to the winner). Gio went one player before this for sky-high, and just felt like time to take a player you might break even with. Liked this pick when Melky Cabrera went later for a mystifying-to-me $28.
VERDICT: worth $4, felt worthless. Waived in Sept. NEED 10 for 58
1B JAMES LONEY 20 – Weird 1B auction selection of only Votto (I couldn’t afford, I knew, at 47), injured Ryan Howard (19, didn’t want), LaHair (10, didn’t want),Garrett Jones (16, didn’t want), Ty Wigginton 11 (didn’t want). Paid 20 for Loney in 2011, stuck with him for red-hot Aug/Sept, thought I could toss him back for less (wrong). But this was inevitable.
VERDICT: Awful disappointment, and worth more to me dead than alive (as we’ll see later). NEED 9 for 38
OF JASON KUBEL 20 – I sat out Rounds 4, 5 and 6 with not a lot of dough and little appetite for the prices (ironically including ASoriano 22 and Headley 19 as well as Espinosa 25, McGehee 14). Could see at this point that there was close to ZERO power left in the pool and I was lacking a brute (AVG be damned). Incredibly relieved to salvage Kubel here.
VERDICT: Kubel only hit .200 in Sept with 3 HR, dragging his season value down to $18. Still proved to be a very valuable pick in this slot for me. NEED 8 for 18
OF GREGOR BLANCO 2 – Feeling pretty good about my offense now (which was justified), looking for bargains. Giants camp was abuzz over team's love for Blanco all spring training, and I hoped Blanco wouldn’t get enough low-AVG ABs to negate his SBs.
VERDICT: Paid out $12 for his 26 SB, .244 AVG in almost 400 ABs. Nice, and marked me as a SB-strong team all season. NEED 7 for 16
SP RICKY NOLASCO 2 – Bought back-to-back players for only time in auction. Realized by now that just Halladay-Hanson for SP left me lacking (how much so, I couldn’t have imagined), so time to focus there. Went lower than I thought, but of course all former Nolasco owners played cricket here.
VERDICT: Loved him with 6 or 8 early wins, but he was up to 4.90/1.456 for me before I jettisoned him (too soon) in a deal. NEED 6 for 14
RP FERNANDO SALAS 3 – Bullpen was not an area of need, but Salas was lights-out in 2011, Motte is not Kimbrel, and he figured to return a profit.
VERDICT: Worth minus $3 if you had him all season – and I didn’t, waiving him before he got his act together and bringing him back just before the wheels fell off again. I got 14 ER in 20 IP in 2 tours of duty; he allowed 14 ER in 39 IP in between. #1-2punch. NEED 5 for 11
UT NATE MCLOUTH 1 – Got his Pirates takeoff to stardom for 2 back in the day; figured it would be nice the 2nd time around as well.
VERDICT: Unspeakable .170 in 47 AB before dumping him; earned $7 overall somehow. Will turn the channel if he’s due at bat for the Orioles in the playoffs. NEED 4 for 10
SP DILLON GEE 2 – That weird part of the auction where a couple of owners have WAY too much money left, so you know who you can’t get – in this case, Andrew Cashner (who went for 13 later) and everyone’s sleeper Lance Lynn 10 (to the eventual winner after he got outbid for Cashner). Figured Gee might get a few Ks, and if not, hello waiver wire.
VERDICT: Paid out $3 in a half-season and seemed on the verge until his injury. NEED 3 for 8
1B-3B JUAN URIBE 3 – That point in the auction where the self-loathing becomes unbearable. Had NO hopes at all here; new he was a bum. HQ tried to save me with this Forecaster bit: “Across-the-board skills decline included inability to maintain 2010 plate skills gains, and season-long power outage. No longer a multi-position qualifier, in case you needed another reason for avoidance.”
VERDICT: All-too-predictable .190 in 126 AB before I tossed him out of the side of the car at 60 mph. NEED 2 for 5
2B-SS FREDDY SANCHEZ 2-DL – Would open on DL, but at least had a shot to help in AVG eventually. Auction cupboard was bare, anyway.
VERDICT: Was a couple of weeks away from returning all season – still waiting, as he never got into a game. NEED 1 for 3
SP JAMES MCDONALD 1 – Yeah, this guy. Wasn’t at the top of my sleeper list, but was a pitcher I’d take in dollar days if on the board. Only one other owner could bid 2, and he declined (and finished with the worst season in our 5x5 history).
VERDICT: One of baseball’s best pitchers at the All-Star Break (9-3, 2.37 ERA, 100 K in 110 IP). Then – disaster. Awful July/Aug, then 17 ER in 12 IP in Sept and lost his job. And no, we don’t have a bench. How to cut him at 1? Still paid out $6 with all that gore. DONE
REPLACEMENT
For FSanchez – EMMANUEL BURRIS.
VERDICT: .222 in 72 AB and only 2 SB before being jettisoned. There’s a reason he was available.
…………………
OPENING DAY ROSTER
SP Roy Halladay 40
SP Tommy Hanson 15
SP Ricky Nolasco 2
SP Dillon Gee 2
SP James McDonald 1
RP Huston Street 20
RP Rafael Betancourt 10
RP David Hernandez 1
RP Fernando Salas 3
C Miguel Montero 15
C Wilin Rosario 5
1B James Loney 20
3B Pablo Sandoval 23
13 Juan Uribe 3
2B Daniel Murphy 1
SS Starlin Castro 10
2S Emmanuel Burriss for Freddy Sanchez 2
OF Shane Victorino 29
OF Martin Prado 20
OF Jason Kubel 20
OF Nyjer Morgan 13
OF Gregor Blanco 2
UT Nate McLouth 1
………………………
I was in 4th place on May 1,and 19 pts out – about what I expected to that point.
Then one always-contending team had the worst start (and finish) of his career, so he had an early fire sale.
On May 17, I GOT Hunter Pence 27-O and Michael Cuddyer 31-S2 for just-DLd Pablo Sandoval 23-S1 and two doorstops (McLouth 1 and Burriss FA).
VERDICT: Sandoval missed more time than expected, and the biggest boost for me was dumping my two biggest black holes for actual players. This deal alone set up my offense for a strong season. The duo only hit a combined .256 and Cuddyer missed the last month due to injury, but they combined for 26 HR, 98 RBI, 98 R, 5 SB – equivalent of another Kubel-type albeit with the same AVG. Subracting Sandoval’s numbers for them makes it about a 19 HR, 53 RBI, 57 R, 4 SB difference. Love Kung Fu Panda, but that’s worth a 23-unit keep that now seems less likely to occur.
Halladay then went to the DL as the month ended – a huge warning sign even with the great McDonald and decent Nolasco start to the season. I remained 4th, same pts, but now 30 pts out as one team grabbed the reins hard.
I spent June rotating non-descript hitters: Sands, Schumaker, Wallace, F-Mart and foolishly chasing Cubs SV with Dolis and Russell (idea was to have enough SV excess to get a good SP). But I still climbed to 2nd on July 1 with 81 pts as the offensive improvement began showing up. 21 pts back, though, and an owner with a 10-unit Stanton and 5-unit Bryce Harper. Even if I went all-in, he had aces to play. But my bet was he stubbornly would hold onto those guys, after a last-place finish in 2011 and dreams of a dynasty. But I had no excess to solve the SP muddle, and nothing was available (panic-started Lyles 1 game to burn one of 6 ‘free’ moves all year, then used another to get rid of him. Still, the latter move landed me the “safe” and later closing Luke Gregerson, allowing me to win the SV title).
At the All-Star break, no owner had pushed the leader via a dump deal – or even made one to assert a claim on 2nd place, at least. I picked up Cishek on July 19, for another closer, eventually. The fearful leader on July 26 traded his 3rd chip – a future 5-unit Gerrit Cole for a needed extra bat in awakening Ryan Zimmerman. (While this owner led by 20 at this point, turns out he would not have won without this deal.). Halladay’s return on the same date gave me a glimmer of hope as I warily inquired about dump deals.
I’m back in 4th on Aug 1, down to 72.5 pts, or 27 pts out of 1st while even 2nd place is now 15 pts ahead of me. Lots of traffic in the middle of the pack, too. Meanwhile, I finally found a FA SP I could live with: the Astros’ Lucas Harrell, who replaced the DL’d Hanson.
On Aug 9, I finally made a modest deal:
I GOT Rickie Weeks 20-O for a stump (Matt McBride FA) and Rockies OF farmhand Tim Wheeler.
VERDICT: Weeks hit a palatable .262 with a 9-24-38-9 line that helped in all of those categories. Worth it assuming I cash in at the end.
Ominously, though, the 2nd-place team saw my Wheeler and raised me – dealing Mets phenom ZACH Wheeler for a 36-unit Matt Cain. Seemed like he had grabbed the keys for 2nd place, anyway.
Now comes the Aug 16 trading deadline. One mid-pack team rolled the dice on a lame-duck Carlos Marmol for a 3-unit Ryan Madson. That worked well, as did the theft of Andre Ethier 30 for a last-legs Todd Helton 3 and AL-bound Jordan Schafer 5. The 3rd-place team snagged Hanley Ramirez 48 for Chris Johnson 6.
I was lured into a seeming no-brainer: GETTING lame duck Jordan Zimmermann – at last, a good SP! – and 30-unit Justin Upton for hapless (at that point) Nolasco and 5-unit farmhand Jameson Taillon. Surely this deal would move me up to 2nd or 3rd.
VERDICT: Upton was stellar in 161 AB: .298, 8-21-30-5, while throw-in Schumaker hit an empty .206. But Nolasco (3 W. 3.44, 1.145) outpitched Zimm (3 W, 4.84, 1.455). Ugh.
Not so fast: the same team that got H-Ram also backed up the truck of the last dumping team, adding lame ducks McCutchen and Morse plus 29-unit Jay Bruce and Josh Johnson. The return package had appeal: Allen Craig 1, Jon Jay 2, Michael Fiers 5, Matt Adams 5, and a mid-draft farm pick in April.
I woke up the next morning to a big shift from weeks ago: the leader had slipped badly to 91.5, the Cain-acquirer had 86, the blockbuster package-adder had 84, I had 78, followed by Marmol-adder at 73, a mid-pack team that made no deals at 71.5, and a waffler at 67.5. A no-man’s-land vibe, I felt, but if Halladay, Hanson and Zimmermann were all on their game…..
Instead, Zimmermann gave up 15 ER in his first 13 IP, torpedoing my ERA/Ratio salvage efforts at the time.
On Aug 23, Hanson was back from DL and due 2 starts that week. But I had no obvious pitcher to cut. Wait a week and miss the 2 starts? I was still chasing W and K, so no. Hanson was so-so that week – and the pitcher I cut was Harrell, a terrible move as it turned out. Alarm bells flashed all year on Hanson, but I’ve owned his whole career and felt some misplaced loyalty.
Still, I got a big break on Aug 30, as lame Loney went to AL to give me enough FAAB to land AdGonz, his replacement.
September began with the leader all year – who never did deal Stanton or Harper – clinging to a 95.5 to 89.5 lead on the Cain-getting team. The blockbuster-dealer guy has climbed to 82, the stand-pay guy very surprisingly rose to 80, and I was stuck in a share of 5th with the Marmol-getter at 71, (5 pct of pot, and we were 7 pts ahead of 7th).
The Sept 6 add-a-players were mostly nondescript as usual; I took Reed Johnson – as safe an AVG guy as there is in an FA pool – and passed up Adam Eaton due to concerns that Chris Young’s return was imminent just 2 days after Eaton’s recall.
After 15 days of Sept baseball, the year-long leader was up to 100, blockbuster guy soared to 89, stand-pat boy had 84 (think Soriano and Estrada surges, with Rizzo and Yadier among those backing up Braun), the Cain-getter sinking to 82, me at 71 for 5th, a mid-pack guy at a harmless 66.5, and Marmol/Ethier-getter down to 66.
Few major moves were left, but on Sept 27 – the last transaction day – it was a 3-team race: all-year guy 98, blockbuster boy 88, standpat guy 86, then Cain-getter freefalling to 77, and me and nondescript midpack guy at 73 for 5th with Marmol/Ethier man at 67. The latter guy sensed the jig was up, but dumped a lame-duck Axford for the final week in the hopes that late-season discard Shawn Marcum (he was 23 and sucked after DL return) might grab a win in one start.
All-year guy never let up, winning the thing at 99. Stand-pat guy somehow surged to 2nd (his best-ever finish) at 91.5, blockbuster boy settled for 3rd at 90. Then it gets complicated (as noted in another thread):
At 9:30 pm ET on the last night, 4th to 7th was 74-74-74-73. Oddly, I had 4 RPs left in the final 2 games of the year – Street, Gregerson, Betancourt and DHernandez. I needed Ks and AVG, at this pt, as well as good Ratios.
D-Hern allowed 2 runners but got 2 Ks. Street was unavailable (surprise!) and Betancourt didn’t take his SV for some reason. That left Gregerson. He struck out the last batter of the regular season to give me a half-pt in SV, and no H or BB. I was watching live update on All-Star Stats (every 2 minutes), and I had 73.5 in a scenario of 74-74-73.5-73. The last K lifted me out of a share of 6th, and I had a 1.293 to 1.293 battle with that same team in Ratio, me trailing.
Did Gregerson’s clean inning do it? By the time I refreshed again at 11:16 pm – 5 minutes after the last out – it was clear that the numbers would not change.
I was less focused on AVG, where I wound up losing .2678 to .2678 to the champs. Never did calculate how many decimal pts I needed to grab 4th place alone ($120). The Ratio loss was clearer the next day – 1.2926 to 1.2930.
Taking Eaton over Reed Johnson would have netted me 4th place. Even worse, doing NOTHING instead of picking up Johnson (7 for 37, .189, no help elsewhere) would have netted me 4th place.
Marmol-Ethier guy – 6 pts out of the money with a week to go – got a win from Marcum that lifted him into a share of 4th instead of a share of 5th (with me). The Cain-getter dropped 15.5 pts in September and very nearly finished out of the money after seemingly being set for 2nd place.
Ah well. All of our leagues have seen bad beats like this for FIRST place, and for bigger money than this in many cases.
I finished 1st in R, 2nd in RBI and SB, 4th in SVG (by a short and curly), and 6th in HR (2 back of 5th and 4 back of 4th).
Also 1st in SV but 10th in W, ERA, Ratio and share of 10th in K.
That’s my story. Thanks for sticking around til the end (I am thinking of the “Airplane” scene where the old lady hangs herself in the midst of Robert Hays’ boring story, lol).
On to 2013!!
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