Am I crazy but is Ryan Braun keepable at $52 in NL Only?

[schlesinj]

Preseason we talked about how poor NL studs were going to be and it appears we were right. Added to that fact, we saw a poor season overall (due to injury) to Kemp. If all things remain the same, does Ryan Braun looks like a guy who is automatically going to go for $50 plus at auction? He is actually having a better season than last season and currently is .312 41 HR 112 RBI 30 SB 104 Runs. Thoughts?

[revo]

definitely a keeper at that price. If you don't contend you already know you have the best hitter in the league, by far, to trade.

[Judge Jude]

HQ has him worth $49 in 4x4 and $45 in 5x5 this year

so if you have typical 20 pct inflation and expect a repeat, yes can be a keeper at $52

[Fresno Bob]

$53.....Im convinced that losing a team to the al is going to have more impact than people think. Studs are worth more, positive value catchers, especially in two catcher leagues, have a lot more value. My primary nl league is a 12 team 2 catcher league, and in looking at projected keepers, some teams are going to end up with 2 $1 catchers worth -$5....

[Gregg]

I would keep him at that price, but I would not trade (in the off season) to get him at that price. Unless of course I had too many keepers.

I did trade for a $51 Kemp in the off season and I will be keeping him.

[madducks]

Ooops, sorry i posted this twice.

[madducks]

I would definitely keep him. (In fact i am for $48 in my 12 team mixed league.) This is the second year in a row that Braun has 100r, 30 hr, 100 rbi, 30 sb, .300 ba. I don't think he has ever been on the DL with at least 150 games played every year excluding his rookie year when he started in the minors. And he is still in his baseball prime, turning 29 in November. It's scary to think that he may not have had his best season yet. I'd rank him as the #1 player next year.

Whatever price he went for this year, expect to pay more next year. Especially since he was probably discounted in most leagues with a 50 game suspension hanging over his head at draft time.

[Steve]

Why can't both be true?

[rhd]

Unless your league has severe inflation, I would not keep him. In my 'only' leagues, his production this year wouldnt be worth much more than that, his 3-yr avg would be almost exactly $52. In most leagues I think it's too much money to tie up in one player beforehand when it wont buy you much excess value even if his production is as expected. If you threw him back, do you think he'd go for much more than $52? If so, how did you get him for $52 this year?

[JudeBaldo]

How about for $57 in an 18-team ML?

[Judge Jude]

"If you threw him back, do you think he'd go for much more than $52? If so, how did you get him for $52 this year?"

possibly because of fears that he might not have the same number if he didn't keep using the magic juice?

anyway, the question is still right.

this is where it can be too easy to get caught up in logic. the result, if it means not "overpaying" for anyone, can be an owner who makes a profit of $40 on his players picked - and who leaves another $40 on the table. but the winner isn't the guy with the best "plus/minus," it's the guy with the best team no matter what the prices.

I always say, it's best to be almost - but not quite - as crazy as the rest of the auction table.