RHD's Latest Top 150 Roto Prospects (End-of-Season Edition)

[rhd]

Here's the latest list. Didnt get a chance to completely finish running the stats for everyone, but I wanted to post it before BA starts posting their League Top 20's, which begins later today. Lots of guys formerly on that are back on after being off.

Same spiel as usual: I generally follow BA's prospect eligibility requirements, which are <=130 MLB AB or <=50 MLB IP. Unlike BA tho, amateurs, unsigned draftees and foreign players are eligible. Also, while BA has a different IP limit for relievers (30 IP?), relievers are eligible as long as they dont have >50 IP. As usual, this is for roto, not 'real' baseball, so pitchers are downgraded some, catchers downgraded somewhat (unless they're elite prospects and their bat will play at any position), actual closers upgraded a lot, SB guys who project to get playing time get upgraded some, and guys who either currently are or project to soon be regulars can get upgraded quite a bit. Position listed is their current primary one to the best of my knowledge (correct me if I'm wrong), not the one they're likely to end up at.

Good luck down the stretch in your roto leagues. Hope these lists helped at least a little.

Rank Name Pos Org +/- Prev
1 Billy Hamilton SS Cin 0 1
2 Wil Myers OF KC 0 2
3 Jurickson Profar SS Tex 0 3
4 Oscar Taveras OF StL 2 6
5 Dylan Bundy SP Bal -1 4
6 Miguel Angel Sano 3B Min 1 7
7 Tyler Skaggs SP Ari 4 11
8 Trevor Bauer SP Ari 1 9
9 Taijuan Walker SP Sea 3 12
10 Gerrit Cole SP Pit 3 13
11 Jose Fernandez SP Mia 15 26
12 Delino DeShields 2B Hou 38 50
13 Jackie Bradley OF Bos 3 16
14 Greg Polanco OF Pit 122 136
15 Xander Bogaerts SS Bos 10 25
16 Mike Olt 3B Tex 4 20
17 Nick Castellanos OF Det 7 24
18 Christian Yelich OF Mia 3 21
19 Javier Baez SS CHC 17 36
20 George Springer OF Hou -3 17
21 Zack Wheeler SP NYM -6 15
22 Shelby Miller SP StL 6 28
23 Jameson Taillon SP Pit -9 14
24 Danny Hultzen SP Sea -14 10
25 Matt Barnes SP Bos 2 27
26 Jonathan Singleton 1B Hou -3 23
27 Nolan Arenado 3B Col -5 22
28 Anthony Rendon 3B Was 4 32
29 Byron Buxton OF Min 0 29
30 Carlos Correa SS Hou 0 30
31 Jorge Soler OF CHC 0 31
32 Bubba (Derek) Starling OF KC 14 46
33 Alen Hanson SS Pit 27 60
34 Archie Bradley SP Ari -1 33
35 Leonys Martin OF Tex 4 39
36 Jedd Gyorko 3B SD 7 43
37 Kaleb Cowart 3B LAA 41 78
38 Kolten Wong 2B StL -3 35
39 Tyler (Chris) Austin OF NYY 22 61
40 Jean Segura SS Mil 7 47
41 Brett Jackson OF CHC 3 44
42 Jake Marisnick OF Tor -1 41
43 Garin Cecchini 3B Bos 42 85
44 Matthew Davidson 3B Ari 14 58
45 Nick Franklin SS Sea 14 59
46 Francisco Lindor SS Cle 3 49
47 Albert Almora OF CHC 26 73
48 Mike Zunino C Sea 26 74
49 Mason Williams OF NYY 4 53
50 Alfredo Despaigne OF Cuba 2 52
51 Jake Odorizzi SP KC 12 63
52 Julio Teheran SP Atl -34 18
53 Carlos Martinez (Matias) SP StL 4 57
54 Aaron Sanchez SP Tor 42 96
55 Daniel Straily SP Oak NA NA
56 Casey Kelly SP SD 37 93
57 Martin Perez SP Tex 8 65
58 Adam Eaton OF Ari 63 121
59 James Paxton SP Sea 7 66
60 Miles Head 3B Oak NA NA
61 Oswaldo Arcia OF Min 57 118
62 David Dahl OF Col 81 143
63 Hak Ju Lee SS TB -12 51
64 Michael Choice OF Oak -19 45
65 Gary Brown OF SF -11 54
66 Matt Szczur OF CHC -11 55
67 Brian Goodwin OF Was 28 95
68 Jorge Bonifacio OF KC 12 80
69 Josh Bell OF Pit 0 69
70 Ronald Guzman OF Tex -2 68
71 Max Fried SP SD 4 75
72 Kevin Gausman SP Bal -1 71
73 Kyle Zimmer SP KC -1 72
74 Luis Heredia SP Pit 13 87
75 Michael Wacha SP StL 70 145
76 Travis D'Arnaud C Tor 7 83
77 Gary Sanchez C NYY 7 84
78 Trevor Story SS Col -16 62
79 Jonathan Villar SS Hou 0 79
80 Domingo Santana OF Hou 10 90
81 Marcell Ozuna OF Mia 0 81
82 Cory Spangenberg 2B SD -26 56
83 Rymer Liriano OF SD -43 40
84 A.J. Cole SP Oak 28 112
85 Alex Meyer SP Was 37 122
86 Taylor Guerrieri SP TB 13 99
87 Robert Stephenson SP Cin NA NA
88 Noah Syndergaard SP Tor 26 114
89 Chris Archer SP TB 22 111
90 Allen Webster SP Bos NA NA
91 Zach Lee SP LAD -27 64
92 Aaron Hicks OF Min NA NA
93 Matt Skole 3B Was NA NA
94 Eddie Rosario 2B Min -5 89
95 Mark Appel SP College -25 70
96 Ryne Stanek SP College NA NA
97 Carlos Rodon SP College NA NA
98 Jesse Biddle SP Phi 18 116
99 Jarred Cosart SP Hou -8 91
100 David Holmberg SP Ari 15 115
101 Tyler Thornburg SP Mil -3 98
102 Josh Vitters 3B CHC 3 105
103 Joc Pederson OF LAD NA NA
104 Addison Russell SS Oak NA NA
105 Brandon Nimmo OF NYM 24 129
106 Michael Fulmer SP NYM NA NA
107 Daniel Corcino SP Cin NA NA
108 Cody Buckel SP Tex -11 97
109 Wily Peralta SP Mil 21 130
110 Robbie Erlin SP SD 0 110
111 Clayton Blackburn SP SF NA NA
112 Justin Nicolino SP Tor 1 113
113 Joe Ross SP SD NA NA
114 Jose (Vicente) Campos SP NYY -22 92
115 Matthew Adams 1B StL -38 77
116 C.J. Cron 1B LAA NA NA
117 Wilmer Font SP Tex NA NA
118 Henry Owens SP Bos -17 101
119 Andrew Chafin SP Ari 4 123
120 Kyle Crick SP SF NA NA
121 Trevor Rosenthal SP StL NA NA
122 Tony Cingrani SP Cin 2 124
123 Yordano Ventura SP KC 2 125
124 Trayce Thompson OF CHW NA NA
125 Rougned Odor 2B Tex -8 117
126 Jonathan Schoop 2B Bal -18 108
127 Christian Villanueva 3B CHC -8 119
128 Cheslor Cuthbert 3B KC -26 102
129 Kyle Parker OF Col NA NA
130 Ryan Wheeler 3B Ari NA NA
131 Tim Wheeler OF Col -4 127
132 Bryce Brentz OF Bos -29 103
133 Brandon Jacobs OF Bos -51 82
134 Jace Peterson SS SD NA NA
135 Joey Gallo 3B Tex NA NA
136 D.J. Davis OF Tor 4 140
137 Corey Seager 3B LAD 10 147
138 Lewis Brinson OF Tex NA NA
139 Richie Shaffer 3B TB 0 139
140 Deven Marrero SS Bos 1 141
141 Courtney Hawkins OF CHW 1 142
142 Gavin Cecchini SS NYM 4 146
143 Andrew Heaney SP Mia 1 144
144 Lance McCullers SP Hou 5 149
145 Manny Banuelos SP NYY -59 86
146 Tyrell Jenkins SP StL -58 88
147 Sonny Gray SP Oak -14 133
148 Brad Peacock SP Oak -17 131
149 Hiroyuki Nakajima SS Japan NA NA
150 Masahiro Tanaka SP Japan 0 150

Removed because of ineligiblity (10)
A Gose (#5), M Machado (#8), A Reed (#19), R Cook (#34), Ja Turner (#37), A Simmons (#38), S Marte (#42), M Harvey (#48), Y Grandal (#76), H Iwakuma (#104),

Eligibles dropped off (15)
T May (#67), J Sale (#94), Da Norris (#100), Fr Martinez (#106), Z Cox (#107), J Wieland (#109), A Pollock (#120), J Lamb (#126), D Bichette (#128), M Montgomery (#132), T Jungmann (#134), M Mahtook (#135), A Gumbs (#137), R Fuentes (#138), M Stroman (#148)

New additions (25)
D Straily, M Head, R Stephenson, A Webster (back on), A Hicks (back on), M Skole, R Stanek, C Rodon, J Pederson, Add Russell, M Fulmer, D Corcino, C Blackburn, J Ross (back on). C Cron, W Font, K Crick, T Rosenthal, T Thompson (back on), K Parker (back on), R Wheeler (back on), J Peterson, J Gallo, L Brinson, H Nakajima (back on)

As usual, comments not only are welcome but encouraged.

[popeye]

Thank you - much appreciated.

[fuhrdog]

What can you tell me about Jonathan Schoop? Wasn't great but not bad at AA and was very young for his level. I believe Law had him in the 50's.

Thanks in advance

[rhd]

What can you tell me about Jonathan Schoop? Wasn't great but not bad at AA and was very young for his level. I believe Law had him in the 50's.

Thanks in advance

Thanx for the response, fuhrdog.

Schoop was a little young for his league and he wasnt bad, just mediocre. Law didnt have him in his mid-season top 50; I dont know whether he indicated otherwise that he just missed the list. Sickels had him at #92 on his mid-season list. I saw him play once this year and he didnt do anything that changed my opinion of him either way. I expect he'll be iffy for Top 100 lists for 2013.

[james33]

I wanted to post it before BA starts posting their League Top 20's, which begins later today.

This is a great quality of your lists - we all can call up BA and compare lists. Part of the attraction of the timing of your lists is that they are unadjusted by the latest influential BA list.

A few thoughts / questions:

1) Shelby Miller is back - mind, body, command, velocity. Check out his minor league splits by month. I think you were a little too conservative in bumping him back up your ratings.

2) What do you make of Nimmo? All I know about him is (1) he was from an obscure high school so there was concern pre-season about whether he'd played good enough competitionm and (2) his rookie numbers show promising power (a lot of 2Bs), a lot of BBs and a lot of Ks.

3) Do you take into account expected MLB park effects in your ratings of pitchers after the top 50? I'm looking at your #105-#120 pitchers who weren't previously ranked and I am generally more attracted to the SF and SD guys on the list, rather than Tex or Cin. Or do you already have park effects baked in to your ratings?

4) Thoughts on how what Arizona will do with Matt Davidson and/or Ryan Wheeler in 2013? They each seem like they could put up good numbers if given the opportunity.

Thanks again for the terrific work and list.

[onejayhawk]

Getting this before the season closes is a big help. thanks.

J

[Judge Jude]

Pirates' Josh Bell - lost season, but still interesting?

[onejayhawk]

Would you comment on your big movers?

The Good

Rk First Last Pos Team Move Old %
14 Greg Polanco OF Pit 122 136 89.7%
12 Delino DeShields 2B Hou 38 50 76.0%
11 Jose Fernandez SP Mia 15 26 57.7%
62 David Dahl OF Col 81 143 56.6%
37 Kaleb Cowart 3B LAA 41 78 52.6%
58 Adam Eaton OF Ari 63 121 52.1%

The Bad

Rk First Last Pos Team Move Old %
52 Julio Teheran SP Atl -34 18 -188.9%
24 Danny Hultzen SP Sea -14 10 -140.0%
83 Rymer Liriano OF SD -43 40 -107.5%
145 Manny Banuelos SP NYY -59 86 -68.6%
146 Tyrell Jenkins SP StL -58 88 -65.9%
23 Jameson Taillon SP Pit -9 14 -64.3%
133 Brandon Jacobs OF Bos -51 82 -62.2%

J

[rhd]

This is a great quality of your lists - we all can call up BA and compare lists. Part of the attraction of the timing of your lists is that they are unadjusted by the latest influential BA list.

A few thoughts / questions:

1) Shelby Miller is back - mind, body, command, velocity. Check out his minor league splits by month. I think you were a little too conservative in bumping him back up your ratings.

2) What do you make of Nimmo? All I know about him is (1) he was from an obscure high school so there was concern pre-season about whether he'd played good enough competitionm and (2) his rookie numbers show promising power (a lot of 2Bs), a lot of BBs and a lot of Ks.

3) Do you take into account expected MLB park effects in your ratings of pitchers after the top 50? I'm looking at your #105-#120 pitchers who weren't previously ranked and I am generally more attracted to the SF and SD guys on the list, rather than Tex or Cin. Or do you already have park effects baked in to your ratings?

4) Thoughts on how what Arizona will do with Matt Davidson and/or Ryan Wheeler in 2013? They each seem like they could put up good numbers if given the opportunity.

Thanks again for the terrific work and list.

Thanx for the response, james33.

Yes, Miller has bounced back nicely the last 1.5 months or so. But after his horrendous performance before that and the makeup concerns, I'm not ready to move him back up to where he was. Basically, I reclassified the pitchers I thought should be in the top tier, and Miller was not one of them.

Nimmo is the type of guy I really need scouting reports on. Didnt have baseball at his HS so the only competitive info we have on him is from the HS showcases. He had a pretty solid but unspectacular year, and is a long way away from MLB. I look forward to the scouting rpts from BA and others.

Re: MLB park factors, the only team I significantly change a player's ranking for is Colorado, and that is mostly for SPs only. That's because Coors is the only extreme hitters park in MLB. Arlington and Phoenix are very good hitters' parks but there's no place like Coors. Petco is an extreme pitcher's park but I dont really change a hitter's ranking because of it Altho I probably should for lefty power hitters. But I dont have any of those guys on the list now for the Padres. Re: all the other MLB parks, my view is that hitters and pitchers good enough otherwise to make my list should not be affected much by non-extreme parks.

I dont know how much playing time Davidson or Wheeler will get in Arizona. For that matter, I dont know about Eaton, Pollock or Elmore either. Will they trade Upton? Can Davidson stick at 3B? How much do they like Johnson at 3B? Can either Wheeler or Davidson play OF? Can Elmore play SS? Davidson probably is the best prospect of these, so you figure that they'll try to find a place for him somewhere. They seem to like Eaton also, who has SB potential, so if they trade Upton he appears to have a shot at a starting job. That's why those 2 guys are higher on the list than the others. The other guys all look pretty iffy now. Personally, I wouldnt trade Upton unless I got an offer I couldnt refuse.

[rhd]

Pirates' Josh Bell - lost season, but still interesting?

Thanx for the response, Judge Jude.

Yeah, lost season. But in the little playing time he got, he did OK, except for very bad plate discipline. Still has the same tools so I cant ding him for much so far except the lost development time.

[DMT]

I too am curious why Brandon Jacobs dropped so far. Not an amazing season but still had 13 HRs and 17 SBs and finished strong. But he is 21 and still in A ball.

[rhd]

Would you comment on your big movers?

The Good

Rk First Last Pos Team Move Old %
14 Greg Polanco OF Pit 122 136 89.7%
12 Delino DeShields 2B Hou 38 50 76.0%
11 Jose Fernandez SP Mia 15 26 57.7%
62 David Dahl OF Col 81 143 56.6%
37 Kaleb Cowart 3B LAA 41 78 52.6%
58 Adam Eaton OF Ari 63 121 52.1%

The Bad

Rk First Last Pos Team Move Old %
52 Julio Teheran SP Atl -34 18 -188.9%
24 Danny Hultzen SP Sea -14 10 -140.0%
83 Rymer Liriano OF SD -43 40 -107.5%
145 Manny Banuelos SP NYY -59 86 -68.6%
146 Tyrell Jenkins SP StL -58 88 -65.9%
23 Jameson Taillon SP Pit -9 14 -64.3%
133 Brandon Jacobs OF Bos -51 82 -62.2%

J

Thanx for the response, onejayhawk.

Wow, you asked about a lot of guys. I have Polanco ranked higher than probably anyone else. His stats are droolworthy and the scouting info I've heard on him so far is very good. Looks like a future MLB regular w a great power/speed combo. Me likey.

Hamilton is getting all the attention, so DeShields' 100+ SBs sorta went under the radar. The scouting info on him is very good too, and he looks to be another guy that could almost win you a category all by himself and he wont hurt you in the other categories either.

Jose Fernandez has been so spectacular this yr and the scouting info on him so good that I felt he belonged in the top tier of pitchers.

Dahl's stats have been amazing, so I felt he belonged up there w the best 18-19 y/o guys. I might still have him too low.

Cowart was very highly rated out of HS, but had an unspectacular 1st year in 2011. He really produced this yr and I've seen some very good scouting info on him.

Eaton is ranked high because of his SB potential and because he's getting playing time because the D'Backs' injured OFers and might be a regular next year if they trade Upton. If it turns out he's just a 4th OFer, he'll drop.

There seem to be more and more ?s about Teheran and he doesnt appear to be an elite prospect any more.

Enough concerns about Hultzen that I dont think he belongs in the top tier of pitchers any more. I expected him to be in the Seattle rotation by now, but he wasnt even called up.

Liriano seems iffy to be a MLB regular now and his SBs have decreased.

Banuelos had a lost season and is still questionable as a starter.

Jenkins had a very disappointing season and now is hurt.

Jacobs' performance was down across the board. Altho still not bad; just mediocre.

But at least all these guys are still on the list.

[rhd]

I too am curious why Brandon Jacobs dropped so far. Not an amazing season but still had 13 HRs and 17 SBs and finished strong. But he is 21 and still in A ball.

Thanx for the response, DMT.

As I said above, you're right that Jacobs didnt have a bad season, just so-so. But his stats were down in all categories. I still like him tho, which is why I kept on the list. I'll be interested in BA's scouting reports, the first of which will be next Friday.

[Ryno84MVP]

50 Alfredo Despaigne OF Cuba 2 52

Why the big jump for Despaigne? Is there talk about him coming to the US? Also, any thoughts about another Cuban named Jose Abreu? I read an article about him last spring that called him "the best hitter you've never heard of" and saying that he "might be the best hitter in the world."

[rhd]

Why the big jump for Despaigne? Is there talk about him coming to the US? Also, any thoughts about another Cuban named Jose Abreu? I read an article about him last spring that called him "the best hitter you've never heard of" and saying that he "might be the best hitter in the world."

Thanx for the response, Ryno84MVP.

Despaigne 'jumped' only 2 spots from the last list. He was around #150 a few lists ago. BA seems to regard him as the best hitter in Cuba, better than Cespedes. Jose Abreu also is on my list but farther down, as is Alexei Bell. Cubans can get here only by defecting so noone knows if and when any of them will come. So ranking them on a roto list is always somewhat arbitrary. I decided to move Despaigne up to around #50 because I think he'd be similar in value to someone like Darvish and that's where I had him before he came over. Despaigne (or Abreu) is worth taking only if you have a good number of minor league slots and afford to stash him for a while.