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Is it too early to look at keepers for next year?

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  • Is it too early to look at keepers for next year?

    I can't seem to concentrate at work today so I thought I'd see if I can get some thoughts on my potential keepers for next year. I dumped so I have more than I can keep which will make me motivated to make some trades.

    It's a 13 team NL only league, $265 budget standard rosters but we start 10 pitchers. Standard 5x5 categories with K/IP instead of K. With Houston going to the AL we might reduce the rosters but nothing has been decided.

    Here's what I got:

    C Y Grandal $5A*
    C J Thole $4A (probably not)
    C D Mesoraco $10A
    1B/OF A Craig $7C13* (signed and can only be kept next year)
    1B/3B T Frazier $1A*
    1B/3B/OF(?) M Carpenter $4A
    2B/OF S Lombardozzi $4A
    2B/SS J Rutledge $12F
    OF E Bonifacio $3B* (needs to be extended, I'm thinking two years at $5 each)
    OF B Jackson $5A (nice potential but ugly numbers so far)
    OF C Blackmon $1A (only with job which seems unlikely)

    P M Bumgarner $20C14*
    P J McDonald $4A*
    P S Marcum $10A*
    P M Minor $10B* (probably wouldn't extend (?) but I like him at this price when considering his second half numbers)
    P A Chapman $10B* (another extension candidate)
    P D Hernandez $3B (ditto - It's a shame I read that Putz's option will be picked up)
    P S Marshall $3B (ditto - love his arm but is he worth a keeper spot as a MR?)
    P A Vizcaino $6A (dark horse closer in ChC?)
    P D Pomeranz $10A (four man rotation has really stunted his development)

    I *'d the obvious nine guys in my opinion. But picking those last 3 are tough, I like all the guys I can keep. What concerns me about the list is there isn't really that big stud at a cheap/afordable price. Unless you consider Bonifacio or Bumgarner a stud. I like Carpenter and Lombardozzi, especially at those prices, but what exactly are they going to do for me next year and how much value will they give me?

    Down on the farm I also have O Taveras, N Arenado, J Baez, K Wong, Z Wheeler and J Bradley. If any of them make the opening day roster they would have to be kept as one of the 12 keepers or put back in the draft.

    So there you have it, I'd love to hear your thoughts.
    I'm unconsoled I'm lonely, I am so much better than I used to be.

    The Weakerthans Aside

  • #2
    Well, you definitely have power as your top need, and fingers crossed with Bonifacio for speed. I would anchor with Bumgarner and Chapman and try to trade any other pitchers for hitting help. Marcum should fetch a decent piece, McDonald and Minor may also get useful hitting. Hernandez, Marshall and Vizcaino may also be tradeable. Agree with the hitters you've starred and you might want to consider Rutledge too. As of now, he looks to have the 2nd base job for 2013. I would be keeping him. OT likely makes the opening day roster and wouldn't be overly surprised to see at least one of your other minor leaguers (Baez, Wong). In summary, suggest you go in with just the 2 pitchers and concentrate heavily on hitting. Don't think Bonifacio should be extended more than 1 year. For me Carpenter and Lombardozzi are dollar day end plays.

    Comment


    • #3
      Thanks harmon. You are probably right about Carpenter and Lombardozzi, but this a very deep league and players that qualify at multiple positions like these guys and hit for a good average are more valuable than you might realize.

      Baez doesn't have an AB about A+ I doubt he makes the team out of spring training even with the Cubs in full rebuild mode. I'd say Wheeler has a better chance.

      Every player I listed has trade value in this league (possible with the exception of Pomeranz).

      I agree that Rutledge is most likely a keeper since he'll probably be the everyday 2Bmen next year. $12 is probably on the high end but I think he'll earn it.

      Anyone else have any thoughts?
      I'm unconsoled I'm lonely, I am so much better than I used to be.

      The Weakerthans Aside

      Comment


      • #4
        I wouldn't want to get locked into Carpenter at a power spot, but I can see putting Lombardozzi at 2B for that price. With 10 pitchers, 13 teams and no Astros, I think I'd keep David Hernandez. He'll earn that as a MR and he has potential to close since Putz is made of glass. I like the idea of keeping Rutledge, he'd probably go for $15+ just because of Coors. You'll have 2B/SS filled if you keep Lombardozzi and Rutledge, and a lot of cash to spend on real hitters in the outfield. My only concern is that you HAVE to get speed in the OF since you don't get much from Lombardozzi/Rutledge. So maybe if a speedy 2B is going to be out there, you want to throw Lombardozzi back.

        I would try to trade Marcum, I would rather have a $3 SP in that spot, but he should have some trade value.

        Comment


        • #5
          If you have any Cubs fans I would try to trade Jackson. I am thinking I might offer stud Bumgarner and Jackson for the cheapest stud bat you can find.The illusion is that you get the stud pitcher plus the underperforming potential cheap stud (not). Or if that is too radical, maybe combine Jackson with JC's Marcum idea and upgrade from there.

          Comment


          • #6
            It's never too early to think about keepers for the next season. In some cases (like some of my teams), it's the only thing about one's team that is worth thinking about.
            Only the madman is absolutely sure. -Robert Anton Wilson, novelist (1932-2007)

            Faith is believing what you know ain't so. -Mark Twain, author and humorist (1835-1910)

            A great many people think they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices.
            -- William James

            Comment


            • #7
              In a 13-team NL only, I keep Carpenter if he qualifies in the OF without hesitation. Berkman will be gone, and both Craig, Freese and Beltran all have significant injury histories. I can see Carpenter going from about 300 ABs this year to 400-425 next year easily.

              If you can get a halfway decent deal for Marcum, trade him NOW. He's a FA, and he's very interested in going back to the Jays. Boston's also said to be interested. He was not happy with Milwaukee's contract extension offer, so it's unlikely he'll stay there even though he likes the staff.

              I'd keep Lombardozzi at 2B at that price. I even like Rutledge at 12. He seems like a health risk, but he has a starting job in Colorado.

              I'd only extend Bonifacio one year. Combine health risk with likely manager change with OF only qualification, and I'd stick to him at 8. I wouldn't do anything with Chapman until his role is defined more clearly.
              I'm just here for the baseball.

              Comment


              • #8
                Thanks Chance. I'll shop Marcum around and see what I can get.

                One reason I was thinking of two years for Bonifacio is we also have a three year championship title that is starting this year so while I'd like to win this year I also need to keep my eye on a long term too. Speaking of that, considering how good Minor was in the second half I'm tempted to extend him, especially if I move Marcum as that will save some money on my pitching budget.

                Finally, is there any reason to worry about McDonald's poor end to the season? Could it just be that he ran out of gas or is he already regressing?
                I'm unconsoled I'm lonely, I am so much better than I used to be.

                The Weakerthans Aside

                Comment


                • #9
                  never too early to do r & d on your team but losing bonifacio hurts

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I'm hoping to get some more opinions on this team.

                    Recently I traded Vizcaino, Blackmon and a draft pick for Ruggiano, who will be $10C13. I wasn't going to keep either guy and have too many draft picks. He probably won't keep Blackmon either.

                    As of now I'm leaning in this direction (contracts are what they will be this year)

                    Grandal $5B
                    Craig $7C13
                    Frazier $1B
                    Rutledge $12C13
                    Carpenter $4B
                    Ruggiano $10C13
                    Bumgarner $20C14
                    Chapman $15C14
                    Minor $10C13
                    McDonald $4B
                    Marshall $3C13
                    Hernandez $3C13

                    I still like Marcum but left him off cause I like the other options better. I already have six minor leaguers and we can only have five on draft day so I can't use my draft picks (and I have the second overall). I put an offer out there of that pick for Yadier Molina $6opt. If I get him I'll have to make a trade but that can be done.

                    So what do you guys think? Am I on the right track?
                    I'm unconsoled I'm lonely, I am so much better than I used to be.

                    The Weakerthans Aside

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by BuckyBuckner View Post
                      I'm hoping to get some more opinions on this team.

                      Recently I traded Vizcaino, Blackmon and a draft pick for Ruggiano, who will be $10C13. I wasn't going to keep either guy and have too many draft picks. He probably won't keep Blackmon either.

                      As of now I'm leaning in this direction (contracts are what they will be this year)

                      Grandal $5B
                      Craig $7C13
                      Frazier $1B
                      Rutledge $12C13
                      Carpenter $4B
                      Ruggiano $10C13
                      Bumgarner $20C14
                      Chapman $15C14
                      Minor $10C13
                      McDonald $4B
                      Marshall $3C13
                      Hernandez $3C13

                      I still like Marcum but left him off cause I like the other options better. I already have six minor leaguers and we can only have five on draft day so I can't use my draft picks (and I have the second overall). I put an offer out there of that pick for Yadier Molina $6opt. If I get him I'll have to make a trade but that can be done.

                      So what do you guys think? Am I on the right track?
                      Looks fine to me, though it stinks that you have the 2nd pick and can't use it. I would send out a few more offers in case the Yadi deal doesn't pan out.

                      I know I hate the Mets training staff but Marcum isn't a terrible keeper, so if Aroldis becomes the closer then there's really no reason to keep Marshall, since Broxton would be his primary backup.

                      I tend to agree with Jason that Ruggiano isn't very good, but at least you didn't give up anything of value for him.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by joncarlos View Post
                        Looks fine to me, though it stinks that you have the 2nd pick and can't use it. I would send out a few more offers in case the Yadi deal doesn't pan out.

                        I know I hate the Mets training staff but Marcum isn't a terrible keeper, so if Aroldis becomes the closer then there's really no reason to keep Marshall, since Broxton would be his primary backup.

                        I tend to agree with Jason that Ruggiano isn't very good, but at least you didn't give up anything of value for him.
                        Good point on Chapman/Marshall. I guess Marcum can take Marshall's spot if Chapman becomes the closer.

                        I really like Ruggiano, but I do realize he's rather unproven aside from what he did last year in limited time.
                        I'm unconsoled I'm lonely, I am so much better than I used to be.

                        The Weakerthans Aside

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          What are your thoughts on Aaron Hill at $19? If I don't get Molina would Hill be a good target for the #2 pick?
                          I'm unconsoled I'm lonely, I am so much better than I used to be.

                          The Weakerthans Aside

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Chapman is now the closer so I can remove Marshall from my list and possibly keep Marcum.

                            Grandal $5B
                            Craig $7C13
                            Frazier $1B
                            Rutledge $12C13
                            Carpenter $4B
                            Ruggiano $10C13
                            Bumgarner $20C14
                            Chapman $15C14
                            Minor $10C13
                            McDonald $4B
                            Marcum $10B
                            Hernandez $3C13

                            Also, it doesn't look like I'm gonna get Molina. The guy came back and wanted me to add Carpenter with the pick for Molina. I don't want to do that so I offered up other guys that I wasn't going to keep and see if he'd take that. Then he came back and asked for Arenado and Taveras for Molina. I know guys here always say to trade the prospects when you can but um no. I'm not doing that. What do guys think about offering McDonald with the pick? I already have 12 keepers and Molina would bounce someone off. If my fringe guys don't interest him I can deal from my strength.

                            Thoughts?
                            I'm unconsoled I'm lonely, I am so much better than I used to be.

                            The Weakerthans Aside

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Anyone, no thoughts?

                              Thoughts on Eovaldi? I can get him for the #2 pick. I'd rather get a hitter.
                              I'm unconsoled I'm lonely, I am so much better than I used to be.

                              The Weakerthans Aside

                              Comment

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