Strange Year for Stolen Bases

[revo]

As a fantasy player who usually relies on the 'base-stealing specialist' strategy, this year has changed my thinking -- and not by a bit, but by a lot.

It seems as if the power of the player whose only role is to steal bases has declined drastically this season. A glance at baseball's Top 10 basestealers shows three players on that list as being part-timers/pinch runners (Rajai Davis, Tony Campana, Juan Pierre); players who have had challenges to their playing time, or who lost their job altogether (Dee Gordon, Ben Revere) or those whose cost was too expensive to make sense on draft day (Bourn, Reyes).

OTOH, it seems like there's more players attempting to steal to the point where they're getting 6-10 SBs and being more useful as speed contributors in fantasy -- and as such, the category in many leagues are clumped up and closer than ever before, to the point where a single steal or two may mean multiple points.

But overall, it seems that MLB teams are slowly giving up on the SB-specialist. If you have a poor OBP, no hope for power, or poor defense, the SB won't be your ticket to siginificant playing time any longer.

[Porcello]

This has been an odd year now that you mention it, but still I hate relying on speed only guys in the draft for a variety of reasons

*Bank on one or two to carry you, one injury, and poof
*SB's are the cheapest and easiest offensive category to fix in season (mixed's - I don't do only's)
*If you sprinkle in enough players that steal some bases you allow yourself more flexibility in adding a speed only type if you fall behind while also not having to make a deal like that unless you draft a bunch of 20-20 types that all of a sudden become 25-10 types

Best example I have is my dyno mixed that I'm leading SB's (168, 2nd and 3rd are close though). Came into the year with Dee (tried to trade him preseason, failed, then dealt him in a package with J Mac for Asdrubal shortly after he came back after his 5 day timeout - got 19 from him pre trade) and Kinsler as my primaries. I expected 10-15 from Adam Jones, Grandy, and Albert. Asdrubal, Prado, Kipnis, and Rios too but they have had more variance both good and bad than I expected. Felt Longo, Bruce, and Mauer would all sprinkle in a few but stay under double digits - similar story with David Murphy. I took cheap fliers on Figgins (2) and Nunez (4), but after they flamed out dumped them and have found Berry (6 steals before dropping), Everth (7 steals - reserve now), and now Carlos Gomez (I've got 4) on waivers.

Basically, sprinkle them in throughout your lineup and keep yourself balanced, that way one injury and you're not cooked. I'm so happy to have Dee off my squad for the long haul, especially since Gomez may have finally turned the corner. A specialist isn't necessarily a bad thing, but you're usually sacrificing at least 2 cats (HR and RBI) with them.

[Lucky]

I didn't expect to do well in stolen bases this year in my mixed league, not having any "speed" guys, but have been helped out by guys I didn't really count on, like Yadier Molina with 11 steals and Eric Hosmer with 10 steals.

[BuckyBuckner]

Never pay for steals. Target the guys that 10-15. I've found that those steals go overlooked and if you can get that from most players on your roster you'll be near the top in the steals category. I'm not saying those players will be bargains but as long as they go for value you'll be fine because the most likely help in all other categories.

[SlideRule]

Is it just me or do the prototypical "speedster" types tend to miss less time due to injury than your average Joe Slugger?

[Flyman]

Is it just me or do the prototypical "speedster" types tend to miss less time due to injury than your average Joe Slugger?

Ask Bonifacio owners...like me, lol?

[revo]

I never go for speed-only guys because it's pretty much guaranteed that their time in the majors will be short. Stealing bases is just not terribly valuable for real baseball. Guys like Dee Gordon, while obviously most valuable to roto players in the SB category, at least were thought to be contributors in BA and Runs before the season started. Guys like Campana, who brings really nothing to the table outside of SBs and who never was a real prospect to begin with, are fantasy gold when you can luck into them during the season. The problem is that 95% of Campana owners will keep him on the cheap and get burned when he gets demoted or waived or whatever. Real baseball teams normally only tolerate a guy with a 62 OPS+ that plays at a slugger's position for so long. He's Nook Logan, except Logan was a better hitter.

But that's my point -- just a few years ago, these "Stolen Base" specialists were prevalent, dominating the top 10s of SBs. You had guys like Willy Tavares; Chone Figgins; Juan Pierre; Dave Roberts; Scott Podsednik; Ryan Freel; etc. all pretty consistent SB threats. Now, it's just as you said -- they're just as likely to get demoted as they are to lead the league in SBs.

[overkill94]

Now that I think about it, I've never been one to spend on steals but I do love the combo guys even if they're weak in BA (Espinosa and Stubbs are the poster boys for that this year on my NL team). It does seem like teams are catching onto the idea that just because a guy has speed doesn't mean they deserve to play a lot, especially if they don't get on base enough. Might make the elite speed/power guys that much more valuable going into next year (Trout, Kemp with a healthy hammy, Braun, etc.)

[BuckyBuckner]

But that's my point -- just a few years ago, these "Stolen Base" specialists were prevalent, dominating the top 10s of SBs. You had guys like Willy Tavares; Chone Figgins; Juan Pierre; Dave Roberts; Scott Podsednik; Ryan Freel; etc. all pretty consistent SB threats. Now, it's just as you said -- they're just as likely to get demoted as they are to lead the league in SBs.

But I've always been using the strategy of targeting guys that give you 10-15 steals for the past 5-10 years. I've always let people overspend for the guys you mentioned.

[chancellor]

I didn't expect to do well in stolen bases this year in my mixed league, not having any "speed" guys, but have been helped out by guys I didn't really count on, like Yadier Molina with 11 steals and Eric Hosmer with 10 steals.

The mysteries of the God Particle, black holes, and the interface between time and space have nothing on the mystery of how Yadier Molina has 11 steals.

[onejayhawk]

http://forum.rotojunkiefix.com/showthread.php/4939-Billy-Hamilton-already-has-69-steals-this-season

That is all.

J

[Lucky]

The mysteries of the God Particle, black holes, and the interface between time and space have nothing on the mystery of how Yadier Molina has 11 steals.

No kidding. And he got two in one night, which had to reset the atomic clock at least.

[TranaGreg]

... *SB's are the cheapest and easiest offensive category to fix in season (mixed's - I don't do only's) ...

this is an important qualifier; SBs are a lot tougher to catch up in only leagues.

in my AL only (4X4 at that), SBs can't be ignored. I've been in situations in past years where I was forced to trade midyear for speedsters to make a run, and they are costly. I'm fortunate this year to have Rajai Davis & DeAza on my team (actually it was good roster management).

[TranaGreg]

No kidding. And he got two in one night, which had to reset the atomic clock at least.

And then there's Matt Wieters with two in one night last week ... maybe catchers have their own pool going ...

[Porcello]

Another reason to not emphasize SB's in March

Eric Young

Got him on waivers over night, with Cuddy and Helton down the Rockies have no choice. I don't know if I'll ever play him, but he's absolutely an option if I need speed in September. Speed always emerges in season