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Can my rival blow this 25-pt lead?

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  • Can my rival blow this 25-pt lead?

    I mentioned in another thread of being wary of contending for a pennant without having "proven durable arms" at the top of your rotation for the Aug/Sept dog days.

    So should I have hope in taking on this leader?
    He has 103 pts in NL 12-team 5x5, followed by 79, 77 (me), 73.5, 71, 70.5, 65.5, 64, 60 and the rest.
    I'm closer to 10th than 1st, 26.5 pts back.

    He leads with 43 Ws, followed by 8 teams between 32 and 35.
    Leads with 38 SV, and only one team is within 11 SV.
    Leads with 2.69 ERA (!), 2nd is 3.53.
    Leads with 1.123 Ratio, there's one 1.203, then 6 at 1.274 or better.
    3rd in K, only 1 team above and 1 team below within 44 K either way.

    Unbeatable, right?

    Staff - does this wow you?

    Kershaw - great, but plantar fasciitis. 15 ER in last 4 starts, but 31/8 K/BB ratio is strong.
    Dempster - great, but just hit DL. If dealt to AL, owner would climb to 2nd in FAAB, where bidding is just for arrivals from AL.
    Lynn - incredibly consistently effective, but will he wilt?
    Miley - wade miley? really? has been awesome though
    Lilly - DL, no timetable for return
    Worley - good since reactivation, but bone chips in his elbow still
    Jansen, Casilla, Clippard, Venters - the latter has sucked, but the other 3 should combine to keep lofty SV total and help ERA and Ratio (not that he needs it)

    I feel like the SP downside here could be huge, but is he just too inoculated against collapse with these gaudy 70-gm stats?
    I don't like having half the league being within one big weekend of passing me, either.

    his hitting:
    HR: 4-way tie for 2nd (Stanton, banged-up Holliday, Wright, Harper)
    RBI: 4th in a 7-team pack (shallow lineup with 4-5 replacement-level players)
    R: 2nd, but 5 teams within 1 to 23 R (Wright, Altuve, Pagan)
    SB: 5th (Pagan, Altuve, Wright, Gwynn)
    AVG: 5th, but barely behind top 4 (Wright, Altuve, Pagan)
    finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
    own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
    won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

    SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
    RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
    C Stallings 2, Casali 1
    1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
    OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

  • #2
    Well my friend, I think you have a pretty big mountain to climb. You would have to have an incredible amount of things go bad for him and just as many go right for you. Then again it has happened before. Why not take a shot? If you fall short you still take second (which really isn't as bad as some people make it out to be). Still got 90 games to go.

    Comment


    • #3
      Hmm, if I don't win but finish in the money again, that would be 3 in a row in that situation for only the second time in my history!
      #justwinbaby

      (4th last year and 2nd in 2010, first time placing 2nd since 1986)
      (5th-3rd-3rd, 1996-98)
      finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
      own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
      won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

      SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
      RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
      C Stallings 2, Casali 1
      1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
      OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

      Comment

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