Trading Studs For the Future

[BuckyBuckner]

In my 13 team NL only league I'm looking at next year and have been fielding offers but it's hard to decide what offer or players to focus on. I need your help.

The players I have to trade are:

Ryan Braun
Cliff Lee
Jimmy Rollins
Carlos Ruiz

Ruiz is at a favorable contract, I drafted him this year at $9 but at 34 years old this clearly seems like a career year so I'm not against trading him but I feel like I should get a little extra for him.

Now for the potential targets. B = going into option year, I think all others are standard or obvious.

Team A: Chrisitian Yelich $3M, Garret Cole $5M, Buster Posey $15C'13, Everth Cabrera $2A
Team B: Emilio Bonifacio $3B, Devin Mesoraco $10A, Shelby Miller $10M, Jameson Tallion $10M
Team C: Gary Brown $10M, Heath Hembree $3M
Team D: Kris Medlen $3B, Brett Jackson $5M, Bobby Borchering $5M, Reymond Fuentes $5M

Team D has expressed the most interest in Cliff Lee offered me Brett Jackson and a first round pick in the minor league draft. I told him that I liked Medlen and countered with Lee and Braun for Medlen, Jon Jay $4B and John Meyberry $3B. I was thinking more along the lines of possible Medlen and Jackson for Lee. Does that seem reasonable?

Team A offered Posey and Yelich for Ruiz and Braun. I'm not sure that's enough. He's said in the past that I could get Yelich plus ?? for Braun alone. While I like Posey I really try to avoid players I can only keep for one year when dumping.

Team C offered Brown and Hembree for Braun. It's just a question of getting the most for Braun.

Team B made the largest offer: Braun, Rollins and Ruiz for Mesoraco, Bonifacio, Miller, Tallion and a second round pick in the minor leauge draft. I always try to avoid trading everyone in one deal. I am also hesitant for a few reason: (1) getting two pitching prospects makes me nervous (2) will Cincy give Mesoraco a real chance?

I think I get the most from Team B but is it the best? Obviously Braun is going to get the best player(s) so I need to make sure I make the right deal. I'm actually surprised that only one team has asked about Lee. I have feeling that the teams after Braun would also trade for Lee once Braun is moved to someone else.

So....I know it's a lot to take in but what do you guys think?

[Judge Jude]

I'm not crazy about any of those deals.
Owners in contention are bidding to either get a Braun, or know that they are losing Braun to another owner liable to take money out of his pocket if not the outright title.

Who wants to win the most? Maybe the owner who will give you the most.

You're like the hot girl on prom night right now. You'll be ignored once you give up the goods, but for now, let 'em duke it out!

[gcstomp]

13 Tm NL with evidently deep farm and reserve? I love it, last of the hard core drill sgt! Any way, Team A is my target in the potentials you listed, to me. Team B has strong pair of farm arms, but $10 takes some of the shine off them, no?

Ruiz, & Braun, for Yelich, Gerrit Cole $5 farm, and Buster Posey, plus his 1st rd farm pick seems like a nice tidy return. Think he will go for that? That still leaves you plenty of ammo to shop around.

[BuckyBuckner]

I agree, nothing is overwhelming. Team A is currently in first place but is notorious for nibbling around when making deals. Team B as you can see from their offer is usually the most aggressive. Team D is not normally in this position and doesn't really know what it takes to get a deal like this done.

I forgot about another offer of Martin Prado $21A and Archie Bradley $10M for Braun. This team also has Kolten Wong $5M and Tim Wheeler $3M. Wheeler had one of the better seasons in the minors last year but seems to be off to a slow start and/or hurt this year, only played in 10 games this year. Unfortunately it seems like most teams have pitching prospects to offer.

The second place team, which has not made an offer has Bryce Harper $10A and a few weeks ago I offered Braun, Rollins and Ruiz for Harper and Cory Spagenberg $5M but he didn't bite. He loves his prospects but I'll have to reach out to him again.

I guess the real question would be which package of players do you folks seem to like the best? Or if someone wants to rank the players individually that would be great too.

[gcstomp]

BTW, I love, loooove, those 2 farm guys on B. But it takes a good amount of success to be worth that $10 tag, takes your profit off the top for those 2 & adds risk. In my 12 TM NL, my 2 pitching success stories are a $5 A Chapman, and a $5 Strasburg, next year will need to decide how long to extend Stras. At $10 I may not have even kept Chapman to start this year for instance, no defined role. As great as S Miller and Tailion are as prospects, they are, imo, a tier below Chapman and Stras, as is every other arm on the planet & would not base a rebuild off them at $10 each, which sounds minor but to me is not.

[BuckyBuckner]

BTW, I love, loooove, those 2 farm guys on B. But it takes a good amount of success to be worth that $10 tag, takes your profit off the top for those 2 & adds risk. In my 12 TM NL, my 2 pitching success stories are a $5 A Chapman, and a $5 Strasburg, next year will need to decide how long to extend Stras. At $10 I may not have even kept Chapman to start this year for instance, no defined role. As great as S Miller and Tailion are as prospects, they are, imo, a tier below Chapman and Stras, as is every other arm on the planet & would not base a rebuild off them at $10 each, which sounds minor but to me is not.

I agree about the $10 price tag but that's kind of the going rate for these guys in my league. Chapman and Strasburg were $10 prospects (I own Chapman) and Strasburg is now $15C13. I kept Chapman at $10 even though he didn't have a defined role I knew he'd go for more than $10 considering the spring stats. So based on that I'm not that worried about the $10 price tag for one pitcher, but since it's two at $10 that does give me reason for pause. The flip side of that is that Tallion probably wouldn't pitch for me since I'd probably be looking to trade him before he reaches the majors if all goes well. Miller is closer to the majors that I'd probably end up using him next year but he could be trade bait too.

[Lucky]

Minor leaguers are a crap shoot, regardless. None of the offers would thrill me. I would be looking for guys who will help you dominate next year or possibly the year after, not maybe down the road.

Example...I traded three studs last year, at the right time, and picked up Stanton, Hosmer, and Jennings, all of whom I'll have through next year or possibly longer. All started slow, but having them as cheap closers gave me money to spend on quality this year. It's a first place club now, and we haven't heard much from Hosmer or Jennings yet.

So, I'd hold for now. They'll pay more.

[gcstomp]

To be fair, I know OP would like it being kept as an apples to apples comp. If Lucky is saying Stanton, Hosmer, and Jennings, then we are probably talking about a 12 tm mixed, which is an entirely different animal to a 13 TM NL with deep farm league. I think a rebuild involving filling up an 8 man farm with top 50 prospects is a great strategy in a 13 tm NL. In a 12 tm mixed you should not be messing at all with farm guys. But yeah, $10 farm pitchers, kinda bleah.

[Lucky]

It's a 15-team mixed, but that's a good point. The other thing is how long you can keep the guys. In my league, the contracts start running as soon as they are purchased or drafted. So, if you get a guy that's too far away, you don't get much value out of him.

Agree on the $10 farm pitchers, too.

[schlesinj]

As we all know Braun is the best available player since Kemp is out and Lee has to be the #1 pitcher available as well, so you should get a kings ransom for them. If I am moving Braun, I need someone I know will be good next year and beyond. I would also do my best to move one to each team.

[BuckyBuckner]

Minor leaguers are a crap shoot, regardless. None of the offers would thrill me. I would be looking for guys who will help you dominate next year or possibly the year after, not maybe down the road.

Example...I traded three studs last year, at the right time, and picked up Stanton, Hosmer, and Jennings, all of whom I'll have through next year or possibly longer. All started slow, but having them as cheap closers gave me money to spend on quality this year. It's a first place club now, and we haven't heard much from Hosmer or Jennings yet.

So, I'd hold for now. They'll pay more.

I don't disagree with that but a 13 NL only is a completely different animal from a mixed league. The only player comparable to those guys is Harper and that owner isn't trading him. Bonifacio is close to that level but there just isn't that kind of player available. Stanton's contract is $20C14 and to get him I'd probably have to give up all four of the players discussed here. The team that has him is actually behind me in the standings but he's the one that offered me Gary Brown but there is a big difference in trading Brown and Stanton. He's simply not high enough in the standings to trade Stanton.

And, yeah, I agree $10 rookie pitchers aren't my first choice but I do like Bonifacio but I don't think I can get him without giving up Braun and if I'm giving up Braun I'll need prospects as well. Sadly he doesn't have any good hitting prospects. I'm not saying I'm gonna settle for the deal, just thinking out loud really.

[BuckyBuckner]

It's a 15-team mixed, but that's a good point. The other thing is how long you can keep the guys. In my league, the contracts start running as soon as they are purchased or drafted. So, if you get a guy that's too far away, you don't get much value out of him.

Agree on the $10 farm pitchers, too.

So gcstomp beat me to point out the difference in leagues, I was typing for a while, then watching the Celtics game. Anyway, our minor league system is separate from auctioned players, their contracts don't start until you activate them (if the player makes the opening day roster he must be one of your keepers and during the season he needs to be activated if he's in the majors for three weeks - September call ups are exempt from this). So if they stay in the minors you can keep them as long as you want. There is a limit on draft day of five minor leaguers per team but once the season starts you can own as many as you want.

[BuckyBuckner]

The team with Bryce Harper also has Billy Hamilton $10M and Cory Spangenberg $5M. I just don't think there is any way I get Harper from him, so if I were to make a deal with him it would have to be for those two prospects.

They are definitely attractive prospects but I am always weary of speedy players putting up huge stolen base numbers in the low minors. This often can be a case of pitchers not knowing how to hold runners on and catchers who are not good at throwing runners out. As you get into the more advanced minor leagues teams do a better job against the run these numbers go down. For example Brandon Belt stole 18 bases in A+ in 2010 in only 77 games but he is far from a fast runner. I'm getting off track here, what are your thoughts on Hamilton in relation to the other potential trade targets I've talked about here?