Could you guide this team to victory? What would you do?

[Lucky]

I know there are a lot of what should I do threads, but I think this one might be interesting because of the circumstances. It's a Mixed 5x5 keeper league, and includes several guys who post here regularly, so there won't be any real secrets.

It seems to me this team has a chance to finish in the top three, maybe better with some luck. It also depends upon whether I screw it up. It's in first place right now, with 124 points out of 150.

Here's the squad. Potentially attractive keepers are indicated.

C Yadier Molina 14A*
C Miguel Montero
1B Eric Hosmer 10B*
3B Chase Headley
CI Cory Hart
2B Brandon Phillips
SS Alexi Ramirez
MI Alcides Escobar
OF Cargo 20Y*
OF Stanton 10Y*
OF Angel Pagan 9A*
OF Desmond Jennings 10Y*
OF Ben Zobrist
DH Casey Kotchman (Hafner is hurt)

SP Cole Hamels
SP Dan Haren
SP James Shields 12B*
SP Ian Kennedy 7Y*
SP Gavin Floyd
SP Chris Sale 4A*
CL Santiago Casilla
CL Jason Motte
CL Joel Hanrahan

R Felipe Paulino
R John Danks
R Joaquin Benoit

R Alexi Casilla
R Johnny Damon
R Wil Myers

My worst categories are SBs (5th), HRs (6th) and BAVG (9th), but those have been rising steadily. Everything else is either first, second or third.

So, do I just let them play? I haven't seen anyone win this league without serious dump trading, but I'm very close to the salary cap. I could possibly add a good corner, like Fielder, but it would cost me Jennings or Sale, which could very well be worth it. I would have to jettison Damon and Hafner also, to stay under the cap.

What would you do? Dumping has already begun by the teams who are 80 to 90 points out. Find a corner? Hold on until closer to the trade deadline? Be proactive or reactive?

All my projections say this is a second half team, meaning that several people have underperformed so far. Some are making it up with a vengeance already, like Giancarlo, who didn't go deep until April 29, but already has 13 bombs.

So?

[Gregg]

Who are the three closest to you now?

It is easier to trade yourself out of first place than into it. Unless I got an offer that I could not refuse, I would sit tight.

[gcstomp]

My post a few minutes ago in a different thread is dealing with the same question. At what cost should you extend yourself to win? I think if you stay still, while other teams are putting pedal to the metal to close the gap on you, you may end up losing your "secure" 1st place spot in closing weeks. Heck we have 2/3rd of season left, anything can happen. Your a 15 tm mixed, with Kotchman in your DH spot. So yes, you have room to improve. I would look to shore up any obvious holes in lineup, even though as of today you feel safe, but stay level headed so you do not have the regrets that I may have, lol.

[gcstomp]

Then again, Gregg may be right. I had a juggernaut team a few years back that I traded into a 2nd place team. Not a good feeling when you reflect in off season and understand what you did.

[chancellor]

Through advanced math, I believe you're in a 15-team league. Given that, you have a darn fine team. I would be perfectly capable of screwing it up, but I'm going to assume for the sake of the discussion that you're a much better manager than me.

Starting at the top, there's no way I'd deal Jennings short of a gold-mine haul that includes someone who's replace his lost speed numbers. I would be willing to deal Sale, simply because you have a couple of decent replacements for him. I'm not sure how much value Myers has in your league, but if I were a building team, I'd be interested in him. I'd be shocked, barring major injury, that he's not starting next year - if not soon this year.

Now...what you deal for. Starting at the top, do you believe Hosmer, Zobrist, and Al. Ramirez will continue to suck? IMO, I'd go with no. That means you have one significant weakness - DH. Hafner's already well down the road of having this year wrecked by injury, and Kotchman just won't cut it. Now, the nice thing about dealing for a DH (and with your lineup flexibility), you can deal for any position. So that opens you up to dealing with any team that's dumping hitting.

I'd be proactive, looking for a quality stick. That also means, if you're close to the salary cap, you may need to find a mid to high priced turkey to include in a deal to stay under the cap - unless your league mandates people you trade for must be kept.

[Lucky]

Through advanced math, I believe you're in a 15-team league. Given that, you have a darn fine team. I would be perfectly capable of screwing it up, but I'm going to assume for the sake of the discussion that you're a much better manager than me.

Starting at the top, there's no way I'd deal Jennings short of a gold-mine haul that includes someone who's replace his lost speed numbers. I would be willing to deal Sale, simply because you have a couple of decent replacements for him. I'm not sure how much value Myers has in your league, but if I were a building team, I'd be interested in him. I'd be shocked, barring major injury, that he's not starting next year - if not soon this year.

Now...what you deal for. Starting at the top, do you believe Hosmer, Zobrist, and Al. Ramirez will continue to suck? IMO, I'd go with no. That means you have one significant weakness - DH. Hafner's already well down the road of having this year wrecked by injury, and Kotchman just won't cut it. Now, the nice thing about dealing for a DH (and with your lineup flexibility), you can deal for any position. So that opens you up to dealing with any team that's dumping hitting.

I'd be proactive, looking for a quality stick. That also means, if you're close to the salary cap, you may need to find a mid to high priced turkey to include in a deal to stay under the cap - unless your league mandates people you trade for must be kept.

Right, I forgot to put 15-team, but you figured that out quickly.

Sounds like good advice. Improve incrementally, but don't do anything rash.

I have two guys right on my tail, one at 119, one at 107, both excellent owners. They are close to the cap, also. The difference, in my opinion, is that they have been getting close to full potential from their squads...one has Dunn with his 16 bombs and Rodney with his 16 saves, the other with Chris Perez and Kemp (though he has fallen back a bit since Kemp has been ailing). I don't have anyone who has massively outperformed what I expected. Maybe Sale, but I did really like him.

And thanks for the reality check on Kotchman.

I'm going to move somebody to pick up a stick. And then quit tinkering for a while.