Verlander for the farm?

[Sour Masher]

I've been offered a cheap Justin Verlander who is under contract this year and next for four of my top prospects in a 14 team mixed league with 30 man rosters and up to 15 players kept each year. He hasn't named all four guys yet, but based on past talks, most likely it will be Eric Hosmer, Shelby Miller, Jean Segura, and Grant Green.

This is a prospects driven league in that salary bumps are $4 a year with a $400 cap. So, with this salary system, you can keep a stud minor leaguer for a long time on the cheap. That is how Verlander is still cheap, actually. Verlander is a proven ace who would clearly upgrade my team a lot now and next year (he'd bump a cheap Anibal Sanchez from my keeper list).

Still, despite the obvious short term benefit, I'm torn. I have a really strong set of keepers as is--probably the best in the league. I'm generally a guy who will trade the future for the present (I traded Harper and Trout last year to make a run), but I'm wondering if this is going too far, considering that I'm already in very good shape heading in to the auction. What would you do?

One added piece of info--we have 20 man minor league rosters, so 280 deep. Replacement level for the guys I'm trading is pretty low. I'd be looking at end of the first round 2011 draftees (the top 15 guys are all taken already), and guys outside of the top 200 in the minors.

[chancellor]

Cheap for two years? Gosh, I'd jump on the deal. With the help you can get here from Jason et al, you can rebuild your minors in two years to something respectable. Win now!!

[Sour Masher]

To be more precise, 17L2 Verlander would replace 2s2 Anibal Sanchez. This is a huge upgrade to be sure, but I like Sanchez a lot at that price, but my leaguemates won't give me anything for him. So is the difference in value between Verlander and Sanchez worth potentially up to 7 years each of Hosmer, Miller, Green, and Segura? Of course, statitiscally, half of the prospects will bust, but I really like Hosmer and Miller a lot.

[Gregg]

I think you should counter him and offer two of the three. I doubt you get the deal done with Hosmer out so pull Miller and give him a 3 for 1.

[axman]

Wow. I see why this is a tough one. Those are some great trading chips during the season to improve your club where need be. I might have to vote for keeping the minor leaguers and I usually trade minor leaguers well before the hit the majors. I just think that your first hole you see during the season you can easily flip a stud prospect and fill it. I'm sure with this setup there is crazy inflation and Verlander is probably a steal at that price but I think you could do very well making in-season deals with these players.

[Sour Masher]

I think you should counter him and offer two of the three. I doubt you get the deal done with Hosmer out so pull Miller and give him a 3 for 1.

I thought exactly the same thing and offerred to do that, but he balked. I even offerred to replace Miller with Jordan Lyles, but he is dead set on that foursome or no deal.

[Sour Masher]

Wow. I see why this is a tough one. Those are some great trading chips during the season to improve your club where need be. I might have to vote for keeping the minor leaguers and I usually trade minor leaguers well before the hit the majors. I just think that your first hole you see during the season you can easily flip a stud prospect and fill it. I'm sure with this setup there is crazy inflation and Verlander is probably a steal at that price but I think you could do very well making in-season deals with these players.

Yes, this is exactly why I'm hesitant to do the deal. This is what I do every year--trade a stud prospect or two for targeted help. You are right, Verlander is at a fantastic price with the crazy inflation in this league, but you are also right that in season, elite prospects are the best currency to trade to failing teams for their high priced auction acqusitions and L1 studs.

For instance, last year, I traded Bryce Harper and Mike Trout and landed a cheap Adrian Gonzalez (who I have for one more year this year), and an expiring Dan Uggla, along with a couple of marginal prospects. In hindsight, I probably gave too much, because right now I could get even more for that duo, but I needed a 1bman and a 2bman, and I had the elite prospects to get who I wanted.

[mjl]

I think you should pass. The jump from Sanchez to Verlander is big, but I think your usual strategy is right. If your minor league system is that far ahead of average, I'd rather wait to see who on your team gets injured (and who of the other owners is tanking their season) before looking for deals.

Although I may be convincing myself out of it. How ridiculous is the inflation in your league?

- Mike

[Sour Masher]

I think you should pass. The jump from Sanchez to Verlander is big, but I think your usual strategy is right. If your minor league system is that far ahead of average, I'd rather wait to see who on your team gets injured (and who of the other owners is tanking their season) before looking for deals.

Although I may be convincing myself out of it. How ridiculous is the inflation in your league?

- Mike

Pretty darn ridiculous. On the open market, in this year's auction, with the dearth of elite SPs available (Wainwright was one of two elite guys, Greinke being the other), I think Verlander would go for around $70. Remember, this is a $400 cap league, where we keep 15 players.

[Hammer]

walk away from the deal. Let him stew for a week or two. If you have remorse, you can always try to go back to the table.

[Gregg]

I didn't see where you gave us how much money you have to spend. If you have good money and there are pitchers to spend it on then pass. He is asking too much given the parameters around your league. We all have to spend money somewhere.

[Sour Masher]

I have $195 left for 15 players. I've spent $205, and have either the most value kept, or I'm a very close second. I think I am going to walk away for now. It isn't every day that someone is willing to trade a cheap, elite player, so it is very tempting, but the more I think about it, the more I realize that it would be wiser to hold on to these prospects as trade chips so I can potentially move them for what I need during the season.

I do wish there were elite SPs to spend on, as that is the one area I need the most heading into the auction, but there are a lot of mid tier guys i can load up on.

[joncarlos]

Honestly, I would do the deal. Verlander is $50 under value. In a 14-team mixed you can get a guy like Sanchez back as the last guy drafted. Maybe not quite as good, but close.

[Sour Masher]

He bent on his demands a bit. He'll take Freeman as one of the four instead of Hosmer. I'm more tempted now, as I think Hosmer could be a star, whereas Freeman will likely just be good. However, looking into Verlander more, it scares me how much he's been abused the last couple of seasons. He's thrown a TON of pitches, and that could cause a decline this year or next.

[Rush]

I wait. Keep the prospects for in-season trades unless he comes back to you and accepts your counter. Heck, if his team falters early, he may be back to you in June asking if you'll do the deal for two prospects.