Major dump trade (NL-only)

[overkill94]

This post is part rant, part strategy help. In my 12-team NL-only keeper league (OBP) the following trade just went down:

Kershaw ($11/0 years left on contract)
J. Reyes ($40/2)
J. Upton ($45/2)
AJ Ellis ($3/2)
Zambrano ($14/2)
Zack Wheeler ($5/2+)

for

Harper ($14/2)
Shelby Miller ($5/2+)
Dolis ($10/2)
Gee ($10/2)
S. Hairston ($10/2)

I realize Harper is the second coming, Dolis is technically a closer right now, and Miller is a pretty dang good prospect, but COME ON! There are no vetoes in my league, but I feel like this trade is a bit excessive.

Anyway, the guy who got that haul is in 3rd right now, 5 points behind me, and obviously poised to make a jump. I'd like to make a trade myself to keep up, but I'm not sure I have the resources. Would a combination of any of these keeper types net me a decent return?

Jon Jay ($1/1)
Stubbs ($15/1)
Espinosa ($5/1)
Pill ($2/2)
Cueto ($7/1)
E. Jackson ($12/2)
Niese ($10/2)
K-Rod ($11/2)
Joe Wieland ($5/2)
Robbie Erlin ($5/2+)
Archie Bradley ($3/2+)
Jed Bradley ($1/2+)
Allen Webster ($1/2+)
David Holmberg ($5/2+)
Chris Reed ($5/2+)
Andrew Chafin ($5/2+)

[chancellor]

I'd think Jay, Cueto, and Pill would be good building blocks for a dump deal.

Per the deal you posted, I'd really wonder about someone who put a $3 Ellis in a dump deal. Other than that, it looks pretty standard.

[Judge Jude]

Seems odd because Harper has only two years left.
When people talk about how high his ceiling is, they're talking about TWENTY YEARS, not just 2012-14.
There would be nothing so odd about Harper doing ok this year, well next year, and maybe excellent in 2014. But I wouldn't move this haul for perhaps (if that) only one truly stellar year.

And agree that Ellis and Wheeler shouldn't have to have come along - say, "three studs is plenty - I'm keeping my cheap keep/SP prospect, thanks."

All of that said, Harper's ceiling is so high that none of us can guarantee he won't become a force of nature by after this year's All-Star break. I barely lost the 2010 title to a guy who at midseason basically acquired lame ducks Pujols and H-Ram for a 10-unit Jason Heyward, who unlike Harper was really raking at the time of the deal.

Hard to remember now, but Heyward had all sorts of magic pixie dust on his resume at the time....

[wannabegriffey]

Seems odd because Harper has only two years left.
When people talk about how high his ceiling is, they're talking about TWENTY YEARS, not just 2012-14.
There would be nothing so odd about Harper doing ok this year, well next year, and maybe excellent in 2014. But I wouldn't move this haul for perhaps (if that) only one truly stellar year.

..

It took Ken Griffey Jr. until his 4th season for his first elite season (45 home runs) and this is not to say 25 100 in years 2 and 3 were dog sh!t. Still, JJ is on the money here.

Do people know it took griffey 16 years to have a 30 homer season? Prime years were 4-11 (one injured season in there (or was it a lock out year?)). Homers ranged from 40 up to 56.

Studly player Griffey was, what would he get on the free agent market today if he was turning 29 entering free agency?

[Gregg]

I'd think Jay, Cueto, and Pill would be good building blocks for a dump deal.

Per the deal you posted, I'd really wonder about someone who put a $3 Ellis in a dump deal. Other than that, it looks pretty standard.

I would add Stubbs to this list. Should be able to get a x contract to help for this year.

Does your league allow extensions? If so when in what year do you extend?

If I can own Harper and do not have to extend him until 20014 that adds a lot of value.

[gcstomp]

Yeah, that haul looks excessive. Harper is the bees knees but that is just too short a window of control of him for that haul.

My NL league, I am shaking in my boots at what 1st/2nd place Salamanders (flip flops daily with me) is going to flip his Harper for. $5 thu 2014, then $15G2017, or $20G2018. In my mind the most valuable property in league, except for maybe Stanton who I gave away too cheap early in year. (He had zero homers at the time, talk of painful knees, maybe all year, sigh, dont wanna talk about it).

But this deal, Harper ($14/2). Not too much long range profit at all. And for 3 flat out studs in Kershaw, Reyes, Upton, and a top 50 pick back in Zack Wheeler. Wowza.

I would think a farm A Bradley and a $7 Cueto will yield a top 10 type stud back. Would that help you?

[overkill94]

Should've specified that we can extend going into the last year of their contract by adding a minimum of $10 to the contract and $5 more per extra year, so he could do $24 until 2016, $29 until 2017, $34 until 2018, etc.

Right now my team is very strong in SP, I need another closer (Axford's my only one), and my hitting is solid but I could use upgrades over guys like Ludwick and Loney.

One team I'm good friends with has Papelbon.

Another team I'm already in conversation with is trying to move Cuddyer and he has Utley and D. Hudson on the DL available too.

A guy I put feelers out for a couple weeks ago who has apparently been busy has Uggla, Ike Davis, R. Zimmerman, Infante, and Cashner as non-keepers.

Another lower-placed owner has Tulo, Ethier, Berkman, Pagan, and Marmol to trade.

Anyone want to throw out some hypothetical trades for any of those packages?

[Lurker765]

You need a salary cap in that league. Something to prevent $118 in players from going to a single team in one trade.

Dumps are fine, but sending half of a team to another one for one prospect is just too much for a league to handle. It makes the game less about having a good draft, smart moves in the season, etc and just finding a sucker to give you half his team for a potential great player at a possibly good price.

Otherwise, as dump trades go this one seems to be typical outside of the $3 Ellis. Why would someone give up him at that price if you are building for next year?

[wannabegriffey]

We went to a salary cap a few years ago and it has removed those crazy 3 superstars going one way trades.

[Gregg]

The 31 year old Ellis is not going keep up his current BA. He lacks power. He is old. He is a sell high candidate.

If you can get some value for him do it.

[Lurker765]

Yeah, but do you actually need to include him in the trade? Would the other owner not do the deal if he wasn't included? Thus, if you can keep him at a cheap price and it turns out he hits .270+ with some RBI then he is worth keeping for next year. If he doesn't then maybe you can trade him to an owner who needs a catcher and get another potential keeper. Why throw every one of your tradeable pieces to a single owner in a single deal?

[overkill94]

We do have a $350 salary cap in-season ($280 during the draft) but IIRC this owner left a lot of money on the table at the draft.

Ellis was included because the owner needed a replacement for Wilson Ramos. To me it seems that the dumper wanted Harper at all costs so he gave in to all the other owners' demands. Can't say too much about the dumper, he did win the league last year (by like 2 points over me

[Lurker765]

$350 is awfully high. This means each team can pick up $90 in players so I guess your league doesn't mind these type of trades. Being able to add two superstars to your roster without shedding any salary -- or probably three superstars if you trade the other team some overpriced failures or injured players. That is a lot of salary dumping room which leads to these type of trades.