RHD's Top 150 Roto Prospects ('Pre-BA Top 100')

[onejayhawk]

You realize that you and Paul Sporer are an unfair advantage. Revo's PT thread too. I hope someone does the MR thread this year.

J

[Bodhizefa]

You went above and beyond the call of awesomeness this year, rhd. This is a truly epic and fantastic piece of work. Many many thanks for all the time you spent doing this.

[rhd]

You went above and beyond the call of awesomeness this year, rhd. This is a truly epic and fantastic piece of work. Many many thanks for all the time you spent doing this.

Thanx, as always, Bodhizefa! As I said, I maintain the list anyway for my leagues and I enjoy posting it. I plan to post 1 more update to the list rt around opening day.

[TopChuckie]

Love the list.

Two comments/questions, doesn't Harper's roto value go down with a move to the OF, not up? That bat at C is a lot more valuable than at OF. OF might hasten his impact on roto, if that is what you're saying, but I don't agree it increases his value. And I would think Adeiny Hechavarria belongs on the list somewhere, he projects as a regular at SS within the next two years. He went to TOR over NYY because he expected to make it to the majors faster there and it was specifically stated that Yunel Escobar would not get in his way.

[rhd]

Love the list.

Two comments/questions, doesn't Harper's roto value go down with a move to the OF, not up? That bat at C is a lot more valuable than at OF. OF might hasten his impact on roto, if that is what you're saying, but I don't agree it increases his value. And I would think Adeiny Hechavarria belongs on the list somewhere, he projects as a regular at SS within the next two years. He went to TOR over NYY because he expected to make it to the majors faster there and it was specifically stated that Yunel Escobar would not get in his way.

Thanx for the response, TopChuckie.

Harper's ranking didnt go up because he moved to the OF, altho that does constitute an increase in roto value in my book. He went up because I heard more and more experts say he was their #1 prospect overall. Folks just continue to rave about his talent more and more. Let's hope that he can live up to the hype. Not only that, but some are saying now that he may be in MLB as soon as even this year.

I see Hechavarria as being a lite-version of Jose Iglesias, who's not on the list yet either. That is, they may project to be regulars, but they dont offer much offensively. Iglesias at least is highly ranked on a 'real' list (#52 on BA's list). Hechavarria didnt even make his team top 10. So Hechy seems to be less of a sure thing than Iglesias, and I'm not too excited about Iglesias roto-wise either.

[Sharky]

RHD, always love your prospect lists - and the new writeups are fun. Curious why a couple didn't make your list: Tyler Matzek (generally seen as the Rockies' top prospect) and Zack Cozart (seems to have elevated his status as a prospect by hitting in AAA last year). Any thoughts?

[rhd]

RHD, always love your prospect lists - and the new writeups are fun. Curious why a couple didn't make your list: Tyler Matzek (generally seen as the Rockies' top prospect) and Zack Cozart (seems to have elevated his status as a prospect by hitting in AAA last year). Any thoughts?

Thanx for the response, sharky (is that you in the photo?)

As you may know, I generally dislike Rockies' starters. Someone like Ubaldo proves to be an exception, but Coors Field remains the only extreme hitters park in MLB. And Matzek also has another big issue, namely control. GReat talent, but he's not that close to making the list.

Cozart is a guy I have my eye on. Particularly because he has SB potential and the SS job in Cincy seems to be up for grabs and he's a good candidate for it in the near future. He is getting to be a bit old for a prospect, tho. Not quite ready to move him on yet. Maybe you can convince me.

[Sharky]

Lol! No, the photo came with the frame.

Not looking to convince or change your views. If I wanted to hear my own views, I wouldn't bother coming here!

Cozart isn't an easy call. If Cincy had any manager other than Dusty Baker, however, he would be an easy call. But Dusty loves him some vets. Cozart is regarded as an excellent fielder, so that helps. And the possibility of even a 15/20 guy would be very appealing. But given his AAA numbers last year, it's clear he has upside for more (maybe 20/30). Even if he hits .250 that's big. Hamilton is a long way away, and Cozart could play easily at SS or 2B. So I think the window is open. Opportunity is underrated in prospect circles.

Just my two cents.

[YourPalChrisMal]

Lol! No, the photo came with the frame.

Not looking to convince or change your views. If I wanted to hear my own views, I wouldn't bother coming here!

Cozart isn't an easy call. If Cincy had any manager other than Dusty Baker, however, he would be an easy call. But Dusty loves him some vets. Cozart is regarded as an excellent fielder, so that helps. And the possibility of even a 15/20 guy would be very appealing. But given his AAA numbers last year, it's clear he has upside for more (maybe 20/30). Even if he hits .250 that's big. Hamilton is a long way away, and Cozart could play easily at SS or 2B. So I think the window is open. Opportunity is underrated in prospect circles.

Just my two cents.

Speaking of Hamilton, what's the general consensus for his ETA? He's only 20 years old, so 2013?

[Sharky]

Speaking of Hamilton, what's the general consensus for his ETA? He's only 20 years old, so 2013?

Tough to say. But I would guess late 2013 unless they push him. Just a guess however.

[james33]

wonderful work, as always, thank you! What some people miss is that most prospect lists out there are baseball prospects, whereas your list is roto-prospects, so you are answering the right question for us. With a 10-man NL minor league roster in one of my leagues, I find your lists and analysis to be great help.

A few questions -
1) Luis Heredia Pit - why did he drop off your list?
2) Carlos (Matias) Martinez P STL - is he close to cracking your list?
3) Will Rendon or Cole go #1 in the MLB 2011 draft?

[rhd]

wonderful work, as always, thank you! What some people miss is that most prospect lists out there are baseball prospects, whereas your list is roto-prospects, so you are answering the right question for us. With a 10-man NL minor league roster in one of my leagues, I find your lists and analysis to be great help.

A few questions -
1) Luis Heredia Pit - why did he drop off your list?
2) Carlos (Matias) Martinez P STL - is he close to cracking your list?
3) Will Rendon or Cole go #1 in the MLB 2011 draft?

Thanx for the response, james33.

Heredia is a great young talent. But he is very young and we have no pro stats for him so far, so at this point I have to go strictly on scouting reports and 'buzz' in evaluating him. He wasnt ranked nearly as high as I expected this year by respectable raters such BA, so I bumped him down. The latest BA list (Prospects-by-Position) confirms my decision. Still, he's not too far away (#172). I'm anxious to see what he does this year (hopefully, not another disappointment like Ynoa and Arguelles).

Martinez is #192 on my list rt now. Lots of upside. Everyone is waiting to see what he'll do an a 'regular' minor league.

I have no idea at this pt whether Pittsburgh will take Rendon or Cole. The Pirates may not even know themselves. They seem to be pretty equivalent talents, so it may center on signability and whether the Bucs prefer a pitcher or hitter. The Pirates need everything so each guy may be almost equally valuable to them. If it were me, I'd prefer the hitter, since there is generally less risk involved w hitters. In one of my AL leagues, I already had Rendon from last year, so to hedge I drafted Cole this year w my last rookie pick. I figure I'm bound to end up w one of them (better be!). You might consider doing the same thing if you have the rookie roster space for it. In many leagues these days, you almost have to draft top amateurs a year in advance in order to have a good chance at getting them. So you might want to think about stashing Kenny Diekroger or Lance McCullers w that last pick!

BTW, there actually are quite a few roto-centric prospect lists available on the web.

[Judge Jude]

My mid-April farm draft will be on Friday.
Most of the top 20+ NL prospects are taken, but not all.
I own Taillon, Lyles, Delgado, Singleton, DGordon, Tate - and the No. 8 and 9 picks this year (cutting Whitson since he didn't sign with Padres last season and may not get picked by NL team this year).

Best-rated available as of January - any moving up or down the board since then?

Wil Rosario, Rockies C
Casey Kelly, Padres SP
Devin Mesoraco, Reds C
Jennry Mejia, Mets SP
Treyvon Robinson, Dodgers OF
Billy Hamilton, Reds 2B
Jarred Cosart, Phillies SP
Brody Colvin, Phillies SP
Trey McNutt, Cubs SP
Jerry Sands, Dodgers 1B

To some extent I'll just be taking what the draft gives me, although there always are some surprise picks which helps. We can't draft anyone who hasn't already been drafted by an NL team.

[Sharky]

JJ, I have to think Mesoraco's stock has improved. He did well in ST and Dusty spoke highly of him (never happens for a non veteran). I don't know that the others have moved significantly since Jan.

[Judge Jude]

Thanks, Sharky.
Not really worrying about callup timing, btw. Only Lyles is likely to be up this year, but by mid-2012 the others start percolating, I think. I could live with a longer timeline but bigger upside, yet I don't have too many in the 2011 pipeline for instance...