Does Sabermatics help your drafting?

[GwynnInTheHall]

I was just wondering. How much does sabermatics help you in your Draft/Auction?

I was probably the least prepared I've been in years going into my NL only league, no Roto-Lab, no Shandlers, no Mags, no Tiers--Just a general study of players, teams, positions and very few projections. And yet-- I sit here with a 20 point lead.

In the past as I've tried to incorporate advanced metrics, it's only served to con-volute my process.

What Saber-metrics do you use? Why? Have they proved helpful?

[mjl]

I am just throwing this out here, but possibly having keepers of Logan Morrison $1, Cueto $4, Hanson $12, Kimbrel $5, Strasburg $4, Worley $5 contributed more to your position than your preparation style.

Although hitting on Ruiz, LaHair, Chipper, and PAlvarez and not having any of your picks turn out badly certainly helps.

[Fresno Bob]

as my son would say "Hells Yes", most sabermetric stats I'm looking at are forward indicators for improvement in the classic roto categories. Everyone knows that Kemp is good, but picking up a cheap Niese or Norris when their surface stats aren't great makes the difference in winning vs losing,

[Moonlight J]

I am just throwing this out here, but possibly having keepers of Logan Morrison $1, Cueto $4, Hanson $12, Kimbrel $5, Strasburg $4, Worley $5 contributed more to your position than your preparation style.

Although hitting on Ruiz, LaHair, Chipper, and PAlvarez and not having any of your picks turn out badly certainly helps.

I gave away LaHair....should have kept him at $12 and not chickened out like I did. !@#$!@#$!@#$@

[Long John]

https://encrypted-tbn3.google.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRCbwmkCKt1MQe49MT1OGutooAnAogkwcsMX68MoGe4JRTFlWlShg

[The Dane]

as my son would say "Hells Yes", most sabermetric stats I'm looking at are forward indicators for improvement in the classic roto categories. Everyone knows that Kemp is good, but picking up a cheap Niese or Norris when their surface stats aren't great makes the difference in winning vs losing,

Exactly.

Sabermetrics help a lot less in shallower leagues. I imagine it means very little in a 10-team mixed league. However, I generally play in 12-team NL-only leagues that are won and lost in the players taken in the $1-$5 range, and that's where sabermetrics are necessary. If any of you play in a league where some of the owners DON'T go beyond the trashmags or the Leviathan, you can see them make the same mistakes year after year, follow the same flukes, and marvel at how you always seem to grab the right guy.

[Todd Zola]

Also, keep in mind that certain sabermetric principles have been around long enough that using them for some has become intuitive and sometimes we forget we are actually doing it.

[JudeBaldo]

Exactly.

Sabermetrics help a lot less in shallower leagues. I imagine it means very little in a 10-team mixed league. However, I generally play in 12-team NL-only leagues that are won and lost in the players taken in the $1-$5 range, and that's where sabermetrics are necessary. If any of you play in a league where some of the owners DON'T go beyond the trashmags or the Leviathan, you can see them make the same mistakes year after year, follow the same flukes, and marvel at how you always seem to grab the right guy.

I think this was the big shift in our league. It is such an old league that many of the original owners failed to make the shift to advanced metrics.

[cavebird]

Using sabermetrics to help me prepare usually leads me to end up with teams full of guys with tons of walks in leagues that use AVG, not OBP.

[RSF]

Using sabermetrics to help me prepare usually leads me to end up with teams full of guys with tons of walks in leagues that use AVG, not OBP.

That has nothing to do with sabermetrics, though...it is far from the case that every statistic endorsed by the field uses OBP. Like anything else, you have to pick and choose what fits for your scoring context. OBP helps only a little (as it impacts runs scored) in an AVE league...but knowing about BABIP will help you in ERA and WHIP, etc.

[cavebird]

That has nothing to do with sabermetrics, though...it is far from the case that every statistic endorsed by the field uses OBP. Like anything else, you have to pick and choose what fits for your scoring context. OBP helps only a little (as it impacts runs scored) in an AVE league...but knowing about BABIP will help you in ERA and WHIP, etc.

I was being tongue in cheek. I do like patient hitters, however, and screw myself that way often. In an NL only league, I am currently last in AVG and easily first in runs.

[The Dane]

I think this was the big shift in our league. It is such an old league that many of the original owners failed to make the shift to advanced metrics.

Yeah, pretty much. It does get painful watching a bunch of them outbid each other to overpay for players that we KNOW are going to be worthless.

[james33]

I tend to think that most of the good pre-season expert ratings are already taking sabermetrics into account.

But I use some basic sabermetrics specifically in a few specific ways:

1) I look at guys with unusual BABIPs from previous years, figuring they'll be slightly undervalued no matter what expert ratings say. Hard psychologically for some guys to pay much for a pitcher with a 4.50+ ERA or a hitter with a <.250 BA the year before.

2a and 2b) I focus on good K/BB, K/IP, and, failing the first two, good GB rate for pitchers, both on draft day in the $1-$5 bids and also when a couple teams have called up a AAA 25-year old journeymen; helps me to decide which one to FAAB.

[Fresno Bob]

Yeah, pretty much. It does get painful watching a bunch of them outbid each other to overpay for players that we KNOW are going to be worthless.

I don't find it painful at all....

[The Dane]

I don't find it painful at all....

It's a no-pot, gentleman's league of coworkers. All the guys are such nice old dudes, you get tired of beating the hell out of them year after year. I've won 7 times in 9 years, and I'm in the hunt again this year. There comes a point when you need to spread the wealth for the health of the league. And, yes, I support a tax hike on the super-wealthy.