General strategy question about drafting minor leaguers

[mjl]

It occurs to me as I'm finishing up the minor league draft in one of my leagues (that is going astoundingly slowly, but whatever) that it feels like fantasy-oriented prospect lists are way too generous about listing pitchers. Looking at RHD's list, for example, there are 13 pitchers in the top 30 (admittedly this is cherry-picking a little since 20-29 are all SPs), and looking at the Mastersball lists, 8 of the top 15 in each of the AL and NL lists are pitchers. But since pitchers generally go for lower salaries than hitters, shouldn't they get knocked down a few places? Are people doing that and it's just not obvious to me or is it not being done?

On RHD's list, Shelby Miller is #9 and Manny Machado is #10. I would guess, without doing a ton of research, that if both Miller and Machado reach their 50th percentile performances in the majors, Machado's earnings/fair salary in an auction would be significantly higher. Similarly with any of the clump of pitchers at 20-29 and Rizzo/Yelich, and probably even with Jesus Montero vs Matt Moore or Yu Darvish. Am I overthinking this? I know that I have kind of mindlessly drafted off some of these prospect lists in very deep drafts where I don't have time to do all my research, and I also have my man-crush on Tony Cingrani, but if he turns into Roy Halladay he's still worth less than the top ten or twenty hitters... should I only be drafting hitters (assuming that everyone else has the same "normal" valuations)?

- Mike

[JudeBaldo]

All things being equal, yes, draft the hitter. But context always matters and if the perceived gap between the available pitcher and hitter favors the pitcher significantly, then I personally take the pitcher.

[Moonlight J]

I look at my own roster and see where I know I have gaps and try to keep the talent stream going so that as one guy ages or moves on, I have his (able) replacement.

[joncarlos]

Yes, but most of your leaguemates already apply this devaluation to prospects, so you might find the best available players are all pitchers.

[Ryno84MVP]

TINSTAAPP - There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect

[chancellor]

TINSTAAPP - There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect

That's the other extreme, and I know a number of fantasy players hold to that thinking. I don't, but like others have noted, I devalue pitching prospects to a degree since I believe they're higher risk/lower reward on average.

[The Dane]

When drafting minor leaguers, I try and follow these mostly-self-made guidelines:

1) Unless you can get one of the first few picks, the end of the first round is about as deep as the end of the 3rd round. I never get early picks, so I usually try and get more late-round guys.

2) Shrink the pool of players you want.
A) This means I have hundreds of hitters on my list, but only a couple dozen starting pitchers and no relief prospects. I wouldn't go so far as TINSTAAPP, but there is great risk in drafting minor league pitchers, and I try to target only a few.
B) I also stay away from catchers; usually their productive years come later anyways.
C) After the first few shortstops, most of the rest are good-glove-no-stick guys or 9Es. So, get one early or don't bother. The late-round CI or OF is going to generate better fantasy stats than the late-round SS. Positions up the middle, catchers, SS, and CF, have defense being a VERY important part of the prospect status, but are not usually fantasy stars.

3) Spread out the arrival dates. I try to have a few that will come up this year, a few next year, and a few after that.

4) Late round picks are all high-upside hitters, great athletes, 9E-types.

5) Guys who come up this year have inflated value. Exploit that whenever I can.

[joncarlos]

Love the high-upside, longer-term hitters. Even if they don't make it, they might tear up High-A or Double-A and become an awesome piece of trade bait.

One thing for pitchers - it probably goes without saying, but it's easier to find command than stuff, and a guy with great stuff could always end up in the bullpen.

[Gregg]

It depends on how competitive I think I am going to be going into the draft. If I have a contending team, I need the best prospects I can get to trade them. That means if the league likes a starting pitcher over a position player, I need that guy to trade.

How does our league get its prospect information is the question. If the top prospect web sites, rag mags, etc. list 5 pitchers in the top ten, you can bet I will be targeting one of them rather than 10-20 position players.

Now if my prospect list is bad, and I am out of it, I will target the best to help me rebuild my team. Almost all of the time I will take the position player over the pitcher.

[JudeBaldo]

Two guys I read are Sickles and Goldstein. I'm sure there are others but I enjoy their writing (different kinds of writers) over the years.

[Porcello]

I noticed the same thing and took that into account when I developed my rankings. Don't remember without looking, but I'd guess I have no more than 5 arms in my top 50 overall and probably no more than a dozen in my top 100. When I'm digging deep I usually trend towards the high upside/low probability/long term bats than arms too. The end of my minor league team consists of Ronald Guzman, Oscar Hernandez, Vicmal De La Cruz, Nomar Mazara, and Brandon Nimmo while some 'top 100 arms' remain available. Real baseball's top 100 isn't anything like fantasy's. If I want a major league #3 I'll hunt them out in March like I did this year in the form of Capuano and Matt Harrison, I won't sit on a Jungmann, Casey Kelly, etc. and wait.

[james33]

While I find rhd and other prospect rankings fair in terms of where pitchers are ranked (Lincecum and Strasburg in recent memory were early picks, understandably so), I think the key factor is your competition, who will devalue pitching prospects significantly, if not outright refuse to draft them. So you've got to adjust for the market value of a pitcher in your draft, meaning I'd definitely take the #20 guy if he is a hitter over the #16 guy if he is a pitcher, because there's a chance that the pitcher will still be available in the next round.