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I'm beginning to think...

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  • I'm beginning to think...

    there's something to this theory that pitchers on teams with good offenses get more wins. In my 12-team NL-only league I have had the following eight starters rostered:

    Edwin Jackson
    Johnny Cueto
    Anibal Sanchez
    Ricky Nolasco
    Jon Niese
    Joe Wieland
    James McDonald
    Cliff Lee

    Those 8 have combined to get me 8 wins despite the fact that they're all sporting respectable ERA's. Today alone I lost out on 2 wins not only because Heath Bell and Tyler Clippard suck, but because the Nationals and Marlins offenses combined for 3 runs.

  • #2
    And that's why wins are such a problematic category. They often rely very little on the performance of the pitcher. How many wins would King Felix have sacked up the last couple of years?

    But, it's one of the original categories. And it should probably stay that way, since that's how they measure the good teams from the bad teams...not how awesome their pitchers are, but how many games they win. (And we also sometimes measure pitchers that way. And draft them that way, which is really hazardous.)

    I'll stick with the good pitchers and hope the wins come, unless it's late, I have a dollar, and there is a starter from an offensive powerhouse available.

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    • #3
      I'm not sure if you're being serious or not, but yeah, pitchers with good offenses do get more wins. Pitcher wins are a combination of three things - 1) the pitcher's effectiveness, 2) how many runs his teams can score, and 3) how well his bullpen holds leads.

      There can be a lot of random variance on #2, even within the same team, but in general, pitchers with a good offensive team behind them get better run support. I greatly prefer Quality Starts to Wins - it reduces the importance of #2 and #3.

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      • #4
        There is no way to shop for wins, so don't even try. But, I do some things that I hope will keep me in the hunt for wins:

        1) Get good pitchers. Great starters will get wins regardless. So, when I'm plunking down the bucks, I don't really even think about wins at all.

        2) The bottom half of my rotation, the $1-$5 starters, is made up primarily with #3-#5 starters on good teams. I'll go the extra buck for Joe Blanton or Chris Narveson and usually get a few more wins for only a few more dollars.

        3) Target longmen/#6 starters on good teams. This year, two primary targets for me were Marco Estrada and Wade Miley. If they stay longmen, you get chances for a few wins there. If they end up in the rotation, you get a cheap starter. Either way, it is a good speculative $1 for wins.

        4) Avoid #2 closers. I know this sounds counter-intuitive, but generally I find that these backup #2 closers don't get wins commensurate with their skill. They get holds. And, most importantly, they are usually widely targeted by other owners. Wade Miley will likely end the season with more wins than Kenley Jansen and cost $1 (or less). I generally only target #2 closers when I don't have closers. If I have closers, I don't speculate on backup closers, I concentrate on wins... as much as that is even possible.

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        • #5
          Depends on league and bench size, but the simplest way to get wins is to throw bodies at it, emphasizing starts at home or in favorable road environments.

          2011 MLB Pitching splits, win %/era/whip
          Home: .526/3.82/1.284
          Road: .474/4.07/1.350
          people called me an idiot for burning popcorn in the microwave, but i know the real truth. - nullnor

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Controller Jacobs View Post
            Depends on league and bench size, but the simplest way to get wins is to throw bodies at it, emphasizing starts at home or in favorable road environments.
            I guess if you are streaming in starters and have a bunch to choose from, then this matters, but otherwise, every opportunity to pitch in a leverage situation is an opportunity to win, regardless of home or away. If you bench all your starters on the road, you lose 47% of your wins.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by The Dane View Post
              There is no way to shop for wins, so don't even try. But, I do some things that I hope will keep me in the hunt for wins:

              1) Get good pitchers. Great starters will get wins regardless. So, when I'm plunking down the bucks, I don't really even think about wins at all.

              2) The bottom half of my rotation, the $1-$5 starters, is made up primarily with #3-#5 starters on good teams. I'll go the extra buck for Joe Blanton or Chris Narveson and usually get a few more wins for only a few more dollars.

              3) Target longmen/#6 starters on good teams. This year, two primary targets for me were Marco Estrada and Wade Miley. If they stay longmen, you get chances for a few wins there. If they end up in the rotation, you get a cheap starter. Either way, it is a good speculative $1 for wins.

              4) Avoid #2 closers. I know this sounds counter-intuitive, but generally I find that these backup #2 closers don't get wins commensurate with their skill. They get holds. And, most importantly, they are usually widely targeted by other owners. Wade Miley will likely end the season with more wins than Kenley Jansen and cost $1 (or less). I generally only target #2 closers when I don't have closers. If I have closers, I don't speculate on backup closers, I concentrate on wins... as much as that is even possible.
              Before targeting Blanton this year, I hope you looked at the truly awful lineup the Phillies are trotting out there. The quality of Lee, Halladay, and Hamels isn't going to help Blanton get wins.

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              • #8
                Obviously I was being a bit sarcastic with the overall sentiment, just frustrated that I'm leading my league in ERA, WHIP, and K's yet sit at 6th in wins. I'd probably be leading the league in quality starts, but alas I'm stuck with pitchers on the Pirates, Marlins (x2), Nationals, Mets, Padres, and Phillies (Cueto's the only one with a good offense behind him). Hell, one of my relievers (Venters) has as many wins as anyone else on my team.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by overkill94 View Post
                  Obviously I was being a bit sarcastic with the overall sentiment, just frustrated that I'm leading my league in ERA, WHIP, and K's yet sit at 6th in wins. I'd probably be leading the league in quality starts, but alas I'm stuck with pitchers on the Pirates, Marlins (x2), Nationals, Mets, Padres, and Phillies (Cueto's the only one with a good offense behind him). Hell, one of my relievers (Venters) has as many wins as anyone else on my team.
                  In 2004, my LABR team was first in Saves, IP, ERA and WHIP (not an easy combination to get) and dead last in Wins for much of the season. Eventually, I got my win total toward the middle of the pack, but that was mainly just luck evening out, not some adjustment on my part. Yeah, wins will drive you nuts.

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                  • #10
                    It's only been 3 weeks, but manI'm with you on the frustrations. My pitching point totals in my leagues

                    ERA - 11, 8, 11, 12 (avg - 10.75)
                    WHIP - 11, 8, 12, 12 (avg. 11)
                    SV - 12, 10.5, 10, 12 (avg. 11.13)
                    K - 6, 3, 8, 7.5 (avg. 6.13)
                    W - 7.5, 4, 6.5, 1 (avg. 4.75)

                    What baffles me is it's not like I have the same pitchers on all of these teams and while my K's are a bit light too it isn't because I'm behind the others on IP's. I hate wins...

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                    • #11
                      And the beat goes on. Down to 7th in wins while still leading in ERA and K's (fell to 2nd in WHIP). Yesterday both Niese and EJax left with the lead and their respective bullpens blew it. JMac threw an 8-inning gem the other day that was wasted on his crappy offense. At least Nolasco earned his non-win last week

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                      • #12
                        I ended up with three wins and three loses. Could have had at least two more wins. I had EJax and Niese yesterday as well.

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                        • #13
                          I am 1st in ERA and 3rd in WHIP and yep.... tied for 10th in wins.
                          "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by cavebird View Post
                            Before targeting Blanton this year, I hope you looked at the truly awful lineup the Phillies are trotting out there. The quality of Lee, Halladay, and Hamels isn't going to help Blanton get wins.
                            Unless they're playing the Astros!
                            Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer
                            We pinch ran for Altuve specifically to screw over Mith's fantasy team.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Mithrandir View Post
                              I am 1st in ERA and 3rd in WHIP and yep.... tied for 10th in wins.
                              Not sure how your team's constructed, but that happens to a lot of people who only have a handful of quality starters and then load up on closers and stud MR. I ended up loading up on SP (7 in a 12-team NL-only where we start 10 pitchers) which should result in mediocre ratios, lots of K's and lots of wins. While the K's have been there and the ratios are better than I could have expected...where are the damn wins?!?!

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