2K11 Corey Hart

[Jefe]

He's #99 on Razzball's top 100 players list. They say 70/21/80/.260/10.

The Fangraphs projectionists say between 19-24 HRs — a drop from 2010 (31HR). The Forecaster thinks he'll get 29.

I like the Forecaster's line - .279, 29HR, 85 RBI.

[DJBeasties]

I really like the 6.13 RC/G from Hart last year. The power shot up to elite levels and he traded contact rate to get it without completely collapsing at the plate. If he can sustain the HR/f% with that power profile and some health, he'll easily surpass 30 HRs. Also he's 29 this year and entering his peak power years so if he keeps the same approach as '10, he'll be fun to own.

With that, the counting stats will come by virtue of his spot in the lineup and the talent surrounding him.

$25 player who can be had for less just because there are still a lot of people who brush him off.

[chancellor]

elD's points are valid relative to Hart's hitting profile. On the running side, I believe that was far more influenced by coaching than Hart's speed or ability. In fantasy terms, that's where I think Hart will carry much more value this year - with Roenicke as coach, 15-20 SBs are very realistic.

[Gregg]

The man is a skinny giant. 6'6" with a long looping swing. I am actually surprised that he hits fastballs at all.

I am not sure how he steals any bases. Last year he had hammy issues but still had 558 ABS. The year before he only got 419ABS with 11 steals. I do not remember why he was out.

He seems to be very streaky. I would count on .260 with 20 hr and 5 sbs, I would hope for .280 with 30 hr and 10 sbs.

[chancellor]

Year before, the primary reason he missed time was appendicitis and recovery from that.

[Sour Masher]

He's clearly a risk if you think you have to pay for last year's production. I don't think anyone will have to do that though. I have him cheap and I've tried to move him. My league thinks he will crash back down in 2011. I think he has the skills to maintain. Yes, his hr/fb rate is unsustainable. Yes, he had a lot of homers barely clear the fence. Yes, he is just as likely to end up with under 25 homers as he is over 30. But the rest of his numbers are repeatable, and he should up his steals from last year enough to even out any potential power loss. As Gregg said, he is very streaky, so discount him in a H2H league, but as DJbeasties said, by the end of the year, he should have earned in the mid $20s, and chances are you will be able to get him for a few bucks less than that, because there aren't many believers.

[chancellor]

Hmmm...can't agree that 2009 will be repeated. Appendicitis is, thankfully, one of those 'injuries' you only get once.

[Sour Masher]

He is a risky play, to be sure, and the risk adverse will rightly shy away from him. I'm not saying he won't flop, but I do think he has the skills to earn $25, and he has shown those skills in the majors. This is more than can be said for most.

I'm a risk adverse sort of guy, which is why I've tried to move him despite having him for $12 in a league with EXTREME inflation (we keep 15 with a $400 budget). There just seem to be more doubters than believers, so despite the risk, I think he'll end up going for a very tempting price in most auctions that are not dominated by Brewers fans.

I know some guys say they won't touch certain risky players in an auction, but I assume that is hyperbole based on the assumption that said players will go for more than they'd pay to owners more risk tolerant. But everyone is somewhat risk tolerant, right? Even if you think his floor is $2, you'd go much higher than that, right? At what point would you bow out on Hart, knowing his upside El D? If the bidding in a standard league stalled in the mid teens, would you take the plunge? Or would you refrain in favor of rostering a sure thing $15 player with less upside?

[Lucky]

I thought I had the deal of the day when I managed to trade for him at a $4 salary in my 15-team mixed league, but reading everything above has me pretty bummed out.

FWIW, Baseball Prospectus feels pretty good about him...a little down in power but more than double the stolen bases.

[Sour Masher]

Lucky, while I couldn't see paying $30 for him, and if that is what it takes to get him, then its smart to go with a safer bet, you have to feel good about having him at $4. He is potentially a huge value at that price. Even the most wary in this thread are quick to concede that point. It's just a matter of how much you should discount his ceiling because of his floor. But I imagine everyone on the planet would be very happy to have him at $4.

Not everyone would have given what you may have, though. What did you have to give to get him?